Dale Johnson explains why Arsenal’s defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League all but ends the Premier League’s hopes of an extra Champions League spot. (1:19)
Two leagues will be rewarded with an extra place in next season’s Champions League based on performance in Europe this season, all part of the revamp to expand it to a 36-team competition — but who is likely to benefit?
With the knockout stages of the Champions League (UCL), Europa League (UEL) and Europa Conference League (UECL) at the quarterfinal stage, we’re starting to get a very clear picture of which leagues could get the two places — but it could yet go down to the wire.
This article will be updated throughout the season to track the race for the extra spots.
It’s about the best average coefficient of all teams taking part in Europe for each country. The two leagues with the best score get an extra place.
Each win is worth two coefficient points, a draw gets you one, and you get nothing for a defeat.
If a match goes to extra time, the score after 120 minutes is used. Penalties are not taken into account if the game is drawn, as they are used to determine the tie rather than the individual match.
There are also bonus points for getting to certain stages, which help give extra prominence to those teams who do well in the higher-profile competitions.
Champions League bonus points
4 – Group stage participation
5 – Round of 16
1 – QF, SF, final
Europa League bonus points
4 – Group winners
2 – Group runners-up
1 – Round of 16, QF, SF, final
Europa Conference League bonus points
2 – Group winners
1 – Group runners-up
1 – SF, final
The points gained by all clubs are added together, and that total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe in the season. That gives the coefficient average.
For example, if a country has 35 coefficient points and seven teams in Europe, its score is 5.00 for the table (35 / 7 = 5.00.)
No, the coefficient system is designed to assess the overall strength of leagues. Wins are the same in all competitions, otherwise it would be impossible for those leagues with few or no teams in the UCL group stage to move up the coefficient ranking.
The bonus points serve two purposes: firstly, to give weight to the strength of the competitions on a sliding scale, and second to provide points to those teams taking part in the UCL who might get few positive results.
In fact, it’s better for leagues to have some teams drop down into the UEL for the knockout rounds. Bonus points might be lower in the UEL, but each two-legged tie has five points up for grabs (four for the result and one for progressing to the next round). If a team stays in the UCL, they might not get past the round of 16 and have little chance of adding to the country’s coefficient through wins.
If we look back at the previous five seasons, England and Spain take seven of the 10 slots, with Italy and Germany one each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two of average coefficient.
So yes, history tells us that it’s highly likely two of the top leagues will have five places in next season’s Champions League.
2022-23: England and Italy
2021-22: England and the Netherlands
2020-21: England and Spain
2019-20: Spain and Germany
2018-19: England and Spain
This is the top 10 after the quarterfinals.
1. Italy, 19.428
2. Germany, 17.928
3. England, 17.375
4. France, 16.083
5. Spain, 15.312
6. Belgium, 14.200
7. Czechia, 13.500
8. Turkey, 12.000
9. Portugal, 11.000
10. Netherlands, 10.000
Italy has secured a top two place and one of the extra places.
That leaves second place up for grabs, and Germany is in an exceptionally strong position with three teams still active.
A raft of poor results for English clubs has swung the pendulum, with England only having Aston Villa left.
France sit fourth but with two teams left are capable of a higher total score than England.
Germany needs just 0.488 coefficient points to seal it, or two wins; or a win and two draws.
Germany needs less to hold off England, 0.322 coefficient points: that’s a win and a draw from the six semifinal fixtures.
Spain is now out of contention.
A league needs to keep as many teams as possible still active deep into the knockout rounds. The fewer teams in European competition, the less chance there is to score coefficient points to compete for the top two.
Results will be harder to come by with the fixtures becoming increasingly difficult.
It’s even more important for England and Spain, who started with eight teams in Europe; each win is worth slightly less to the coefficient (as the score is divided by eight rather than seven for Germany and Italy.)
Atalanta and AS Roma are in the UEL semifinals, with Fiorentina in the last four of the the UECL.
AC Milan, Internazionale, Lazio and Napoli are out.
Through to semifinals: 3
Out: 4
It’s job done for Italy, which will have five clubs in next season’s Champions League.
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 22.142
Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are through to the UCL semifinals, but RB Leipzig were eliminated.
Bayer Leverkusen remain active in the UEL.
Union Berlin, Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg are out.
Through to semifinals: 3
Out: 4
Germany are clear in second and would need a horrendous set of semifinal results to miss out on the extra place from here.
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 20.642
Arsenal and Manchester City went out in the UCL quarterfinals. Manchester United and Newcastle United were knocked out after finishing bottom of their UCL groups.
West Ham United, Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion are out of the UEL.
That leaves just Aston Villa in the semifinals of the UECL.
Through to semifinals: 1
Taking part in quarterfinals: 1
Out: 6
England’s chances are now hanging by a thread. Aston Villa will have to win the UECL, and all three matches, and hope Germany completely fail in the semifinals.
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 18.250
Paris Saint-Germain are through to the UCL semifinals, with Marseille still in the UEL.
Lens, Lille, Stade Rennais and Toulouse are out.
Through to semifinals: 2
Out: 4
With only two teams left in Europe, France’s chances of making the top two are low but it’s still possible — but PSG and Marseille would need to lift European trophies.
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 18.416
Champions League
Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Could PSG and Real Madrid knock out both Bundesliga clubs and open the door for the Premier League?
PSG will have to win this semifinal to keep alive France’s small hopes of gatecrashing the top two.
Europa League
Marseille vs. Atalanta
AS Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen
England is left hoping that Roma’s strong European record in recent seasons is too much for Leverkusen, while Marseille must go through for France.
Europa Conference League
Fiorentina vs. Club Brugge
Aston Villa vs. Olympiacos
Villa must win the tournament if England is to have any hope.
In many seasons it may be obvious in March, once we know which leagues have teams through to the quarterfinals of the three European competitions. It’s closer this time, but those terrible results for English clubs mean it’s all but over.
However, the 2019-20 season shows that it can go right down to the wire. Germany didn’t overtake the Premier League for second place until Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the final of the Champions League. If that’s repeated this season, we wouldn’t know which league gets the second additional spot until the UCL final takes place June 1.
It would leave two clubs in the domestic leagues praying for the right result in the final. In 2019-20, Bayer Leverkusen and Leicester City finished fifth in Germany and England respectively. Leverkusen would have needed Bayern to win the UCL final to get the place, while Leicester required Bayern to lose the match.
We could also hypothetically see a situation where, for instance, Arsenal winning the Champions League could hand a fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur a place in the Champions League.
Under the old system, a maximum of five clubs from one association could play in the Champions League. It meant that in the unlikely event teams from the same league won the Champions League and Europa League, yet both finished outside the UCL places domestically, then fourth would have to surrender their place and drop into the UEL.
But from 2024-25 the cap has been removed and it will be possible for seven Premier League teams to get a place in the UCL: The top four, fifth through league performance in Europe, and the winners of the UCL and the UEL.
It would also technically be possible to have 11 Premier League teams in Europe: The usual allocation of seven, plus the extra Champions League place and the titleholders of all three European competitions (if they finished outside a European position.) UEFA has yet to take a decision on a maximum number in Europe from one association, though sources have indicated that it may be capped at 10 if this very unlikely scenario occurs, with a place in the UEL taken away.
If we assume the extra spots will go to one of the top leagues, it means fifth place will enter the Champions League and it will have eight (rather than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a place.
If the Premier League gets it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: Carabao Cup winners
If the cup winners finish in the top 6, the European places could drop to 7th and 8th in the table.
If LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A gets it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 7
If a team wins the UEL but doesn’t qualify for the UCL domestically, that league would have six places in the UCL — the five places to the leagues plus the UEL titleholders as an additional.
Right now, Borussia Dortmund are fifth in the Bundesliga, with Roma holding that spot in Serie A.
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