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Mizzou’s real SEC rival was pretty bad last year. Is this the year they finally break through?
Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because I don’t like you or your team.
Murray State
Buffalo
Boston College
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
Massachusetts
Auburn
Alabama
Oklahoma
At this time last year I was giving credit to Shane Beamer for his ability to improve South Carolina from one of the worst SEC teams of the ‘21 season to a team that was two touchdowns better than the average college football team in a single year. At the same time, I was also pumping the breaks on the dark-horse campaigns being motorized for the Gamecocks as an SEC contender and Spencer Rattler as a Heisman candidate. Why? Because Rattler was not a guy who was consistently an elite passer, the offense was relying on a FCS transfers, and the defense was breaking in a ton of new guys.
Then the season started, and South Carolina continue the pattern of their coaches over the past ten years:
Hit the highest highs, regress, bottom out, build, hit a high point, regress, bottom out. Rinse, wash, repeat.
If the pattern holds then this should be a bottoming out year that costs Shane Beamer his job. I don’t know if the administration is at that point with Beamer the Younger but with divisions removed and the Playoff expanded there’s a chance that athletic directors envision a realm where their school can win big now and choose to can the guy who hasn’t shown he can make a breakthrough.
Also, having an 0-4 record against Missouri feels like one of those secret clauses in every SEC head coach contract that gets you canned. But that’s just a hunch and a projection for this season so don’t pay that too much heed while we sit here in July.
Here’s what South Carolina did last year:
South Carolina, like Missouri, plays in the SEC and while not all SEC schedules are the same – there are easy SEC schedule out there! Like Mizzous! – there will always be two or three matchups against elite programs every year. That’s just part of the deal.
And when South Carolina plays elite teams they simply do not tend to do well, including last year:
You can’t avoid SP+ Top 30 teams in the SEC so don’t let a South Carolina fan gaslight you into thinking they’re in a special circle of hell because the league hates them. Instead, point to the fact that they choose to play North Carolina and Clemson every year – routinely Top 30 teams, mind you – and insist on losing those, too.
Add in the fact that they were 2-1 in one-score games, and the Gamecocks were just as close to 3-9 as they were to 6-6. That’s a bad team, no matter which conference you’re in. And with the uncertainty created via their portal losses and additions, I don’t quite see that getting astronomically better.
Three years in and the son of the legendary Frank Beamer has most likely run out of good vibes while sitting at 20-18 and four games under .500 in league play. The improved recruiting might get him some slightly elongated goodwill but if your high point is 8-5 and your low point is 5-7 I’m not sure how much recruiting can save you, especially when that elevated recruiting keeps you at 12th or 13th in conference.
The elite college coaches are great recruiters both of talent (high school and portal) and staff. Beamer is pretty good at high school recruiting, hit and miss at portal evaluations, and has struggled to recruit a solid offensive coordinator at any point. The boring Marcus Satterfield and the overmatched Dowell Logains have failed to maximize Cocky’s offensive talent and, subsequently, held back some decent defenses and super creative special teams play. For his sake, Beamer needs to hope this most recent round of portal evals pays off and his OC hire just needed a year to acclimate. Otherwise, Beamer might be going back to coaching special teams next year.
Dowell Loggains – Offensive Coordinator: One of the worst NFL coordinators inherited the 25th-best offense according to SP+ in 2022 and a NFL-caliber quarterback in Spencer Rattler and proceeded to drive it into a ditch, finishing 58th in ‘23. I was very underwhelmed by the hire when it was announced and Loggains did nothing to prove any of his doubters wrong. Now his second attempt features a brand new quarterback and a bunch of transfers with high upside with something to prove. I’m not clear how it’ll work but put me in the camp of thinking it won’t go well.
Clayton White – Defensive Coordinator: I like Clayton White a lot when he was at Western Kentucky, to the point where I was upset to hear that he was going to Mizzou’s rival at South Carolina. I’ve probably given him too much leeway due to my affinity for his creative Hilltopper defenses but, after three years, he has yet to field a defense that finished better than 49th in the country. Much like this entire staff, this is a year where White absolutely needs to show proof of concept, otherwise he might have to go back to being a position coach while the stink of his South Carolina tenure washes out.
Joe DeCamillis – Special Teams Coordinator
Marquel Blackwell – Running Backs
Mike Furrey – Wide Receivers
Shawn Elliott – Tight Ends
Lonnie Teasley – Offensive Line
Travian Robertson – Defensive Line
Sterling Lucas – Defensive Ends/Outside Linebackers
Torrian Gray – Defensive Backs
The transfer portal was not kind to South Carolina, both from a production lost standpoint and an optics standpoint. Last year we all criticized for the Gamecocks bringing in one transfer running back in Mario Anderson from tiny Newberry college…who ended up being their best running back, believe it or not! But after one year Anderson decided Columbia East was a bad situation and transferred out of the SEC and into AAC rising power Memphis. Two blue-chip quarterbacks transferred out as well, with Davis Beville ending up at Oklahoma and Colten Gauthier ending up at Gardner-Webb. Six receivers transferred out and, as of this writing, four have yet to find a landing spot. Four backup offensive linemen transferred out after losing three starters to graduation, while six defensive linemen transferred out, none of where were starters but two of which wound up at P4 schools (including Xzavier McLeod ending up at Georgia). Two linebackers from their four-man rotation transferred to SEC foes while three defensive backs left as well, including one that was nabbed by Ohio State. South Carolina was set to lose a good chunk of experience and, even though the exiting players weren’t all starters, lost a ton of effective depth to the portal, forcing them to start over once again.
So did they do a good job of replacing that lost talent? Actually…it might be a decent trade here! Things you like to see: adding a veteran backup quarterback in Robby Ashford, an elite-level running back coming off injury in Rocket Sanders and the talented but buried-on-a-talented-team Vandrevius Jacobs. Offensive tackle Aaryn Parks (Oklahoma) and defensive tackle Monkell Goodwine (Alabama) are blue-chip value adds from the discount pile, and importing Pitt defensive players is always a good idea for a defense looking to improve their talent via overlooked prospects. I also really like the addition of Coastal Carolina’s Jeremy Maclin – receiver Jared Brown – and former North Texas running back Oscar Adaway III, who became the leading returning rusher the moment he stepped foot on Carolina’s campus. It’s a good mix of former blue chippers and overachieving G5 prospects that could work in theory…but absolutely didn’t last year.
On the high school front South Carolina finished the ‘24 recruiting class strong, nabbing 5-star edge rusher Dylan Stewart and 4-star swiss army knife Jalewis Solomon. Two 4-star linemen in Josiah Thompson and Kam Pringle could get some serious opportunities at the starting rotation, and while LaNorris Sellers was declared South Carolina’s starter in the spring period, Dante Reno should provide some good competition and provide high-upside depth.
So how did an offense with a returning NFL Draft pick at quarterback get substantially worse than the year prior? The offensive coordinator hire didn’t help but that was far from the actual problem.
To wit, South Carolina maintained its obscene levels of run avoidance, featuring some of the lowest run rates on both standard downs and passing downs in the country, leaning on Spencer Rattler’s arm over any running back’s legs. Part of that was a good call: the Gamecocks’ ground game has been unimpressive the last few years and last year ranked 122nd in success rate and 130th (out of 133!) in opportunity rate (runs that gain at least 4 yards). And while the passing success rate was ok (55th) they threw the 11th-most passes at or behind the line. Only 10% of their passes traveled 20+ yards through the air, ranking 117th, and their explosiveness wasn’t good enough to make up for all the short stuff they were throwing (51st in passing explosiveness, 67th in rushing explosiveness). If you don’t take deep shots, can’t run the ball, and your only hope is to have receivers catch screens and flares and hope they break a big one on skill alone, your offense probably stinks…which, oh, hey, it did. They were quite bad in standard downs, marginally better in passing downs, but did somehow rank 12th in points per scoring opportunity. They now start over at quarterback, running back, and receiver with the hope that some G5 and FCS call ups can make it work.
The job of replacing a 5th-round draft pick at quarterback seemingly was going to be a competition throughout spring and fall camp. But at the conclusion of spring camp Beamer went out and said Sellers was their starting quarterback “heading into the summer” and has been introducing him over the past few months as Their Likely New Starting Quarterback so…yeah, I guess this is the dude. And in fairness to Beamer, this is the lone guy who had meaningful reps at QB last year (Luke Doty threw a few passes but is apparently now a wide receiver slash quarterback with the emphasis on receiver) so it makes sense, then, that he’s starting ahead of a journeyman transfer and an incoming freshman.
Norris’ snaps last year don’t give you anything, though. He threw 4 passes that were all complete and went for 2 touchdowns along with 5 rushes for 51 yards over five games…go ahead and try and extrapolate an entire season out of that if you dare!
If course, they did bring in a veteran transfer to provide depth and competition, so, ya know, what if this guy gets it?
Mizzou fans will remember Robby Ashford as the quarterback who sucked a smidge less than his opponent in the 2021 matchup of SEC Tigers that lead to the awful, horrible, no good, very bad day for both Harrison Mevis and Nathaniel Peat. Ashford hasn’t done much since then and transferred out of Auburn to give himself a last shot at starting. He’s very experienced but has been mostly bad in that experience so I find it hard that he’ll win the job long term, and rather just be a “break glass in case of emergency” option.
The big name, obviously, is Arkansas transfer Raheim “Rocket” Sanders who missed almost the entire 2023 campaign with an injury. Sanders showed flashes in 2021 before bursting onto the scene in 2022 with a 1,400+ yard campaign for the Razorbacks. If he can regain that pre-injury juice then South Carolina might finally have a star running back that’s able to convince Gamecock play callers to run the dang ball.
Or it might be two other guys. North Texas transfer Oscar Adaway is a speedster that thrives on getting to the edge where he averaged 7.4 yards per carry last year. He’s equally adept at pummeling defenses, averaging 10.4 yards per carry against a 7+ man box and 3.6 yards after contact. He doesn’t have the star power of a Rocket Sanders but has been durable and better more recently. And don’t sleep on South Carolina State transfer Jawarn Howell who averaged damn near 8 yards per carry over 102 carries last year. Either of those three could make the leap and if all three do than this could be one of the most underrated running back stables in the country.
Which is good since the quarterback is either going to be very new or stinky bad.
What do you do when your top three pass targets – whom represent 48% of all targets and 55% of all passing yards – all get drafted in the NFL? Well if you’re Shane Beamer you replace them with G5 call ups, of course!
Jared Brown was Coastal Carolina’s version of Jeremy Maclin, contributing nearly 1,000 yards via catches and runs, while Miami (Ohio)’s Gage Larvadain is a shiftier slot-receiver type that isn’t as sure handed as Brown but is able to aggregate more yards per catch and target. And Dalevon Campbell is a former Nevada-by-way-of-Illinois receiver that provides a big target at 6’4” and tries to win deep; his catch rates suffer for it but he’s a big play waiting to happen at all times.
South Carolina’s passing offense was it’s only real threat last year and trying to replace NFL talent with G5 transfers is a tough ask, but the skill set is varied by guy and, paired with a potentially formidable ground game, could really motor Carolina’s offense to competence if it all clicks.
South Carolina’s offensive line was an absolute mess, thanks in part to injuries and freshmen – talented freshmen, but freshmen nonetheless – taking meaningful snaps over the course of the year. They were bottom 15 in pressures allowed, sacks allowed, and havoc allowed and, ohbytheway, were incapable of reliably opening holes for the running backs to hit. The good news, then, is that those freshmen are now sophomores and are supplemented by two transfers, Florida Atlantic’s Kammar Bell and North Carolina Central’s Torricelli Simpkins III. That give them six guys with at least 8 starts and 400 snaps last year to pull from which, seemingly, should give them better starters (and options) than last year’s motley crew.
Last year’s Gamecock defense was the relative strength of the team, in that it ranked three spots better than an offense that tanked in the span of twelve months. But don’t be fooled: they weren’t any good, either. 96th against the run and 80th against the pass while allowing opponents a 50% success rate is bad for a G5 defense, let alone and SEC defense. And as bad as they were on standard downs they were one of the worst 3rd-down defenses in the country, aided in the fact that neither of their three levels of defense ranked better than 80th in havoc rate.
So what’s the upside? Well…they’re all back! Most of them, anyway! In fact, South Carolina’s returning defensive production ranks 11th in the nation! And while you can argue the merits of a bad defense returning its starters, on the whole that tends to provide noticeable improvement across the board (Mizzou fans should know this!). And returning three defensive backs, your best linebacker, and your top three interior linemen is a great set of boxes to tic in the “surprising improvement” checklist. Add to that their bounty from the portal which included a veteran linebacker, an underrated pass rushers, and three hard-nosed defensive vets from one of the best defensive units in the country (aka the Pitt Panthers) and you can start to see Clayton White potentially fielding a Top 30-40 defense next year.
The problem, of course, is that a Top 30-40 defense isn’t going to win you a ton of gamed without the help from an offense that can do more than just throw it short and pray for a miracle.
I’m not sure if Shane Beamer is going to be the guy long term for South Carolina but I’m coming around on his roster additions from this offseason. I still do not agree with his offensive coordinator hire and I seriously think it’s going to hold back a lot of potential fun unless some additional voices get in there and force some creativity with the athletic pieces they have.
Regarding the schedule, they finally get North Carolina off the docket and face a non-conference slate of Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, and Clemson. If they could replace Clemson with any team that wasn’t one that has won multiple national championships in the past 8 years, that would be in their best interest but alas, that game isn’t going anywhere.
Cocky’s easiest SEC game is at Vanderbilt and at Kentucky, just to give you an idea of how difficult this year could be once again. Trips to Alabama and Oklahoma might as well be written off already, while home visits from Playoff contenders LSU and Ole Miss could bury Beamer and friends before we even hit the first full week of October.
It’ll be interesting, then, to see what the state of the South Carolina football program is by the time Mizzou visits Columbia Least. The Gamecocks will have just completed their trip to Nashville and could very seriously be 1-6 in conference with that lone win being the literal week before the Tigers show up. Is Beamer still the coach? Or did he pull some surprise upsets?
If the first batch of four games of Missouri’s 2023 schedule is the easiest and the second batch is the hardest, this third batch is the most dangerous in my mind. Obviously Mizzou should be laser focused on Oklahoma but then you conclude the year with trips to your actual most hated SEC rival, a team you’ve never beaten since moving to the SEC, and then the actual forced rival. Two of these teams might have fired their coach at this point. Or maybe they’re riding a wave of renewed energy after some surprise victories. And what if a Mizzou team – that has an outside shot of an SEC championship and Playoff berth – is coming into town and this is their chance to earn a memorable scalp?
There’s way too many moving pieces to even try to prognosticate how these games could play out down the stretch but, assuming Mizzou makes it through the first two-thirds of the season intact, the backstretch has an opportunity to provide some heart palpitation opportunities against foes who would love nothing more to ruin everything.
It’ll be a wild finish.
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