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I like Bill Connelly’s SP+. It is a pretty reliable indicator of the quality of a given team, and does a pretty good job of finding fraud teams and sleeper teams. Like all of you, I was shocked that he rated Maryland as the #21 team in 2023. Maryland was unquestionably the 4th best team in the Big Ten East. But the 4th best team in the entire Big Ten? What about Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern? There are several conclusions I have drawn:
Umm. Not good. ‘King of the Dipshits’ will be in full effect. Maryland currently ranks 44th, and 11th! in the new 18-team Big Ten. Without giving away too much info, Maryland ranks behind the Big 3, the West Coast 4, and three teams from the now-defunct Big 10 West division. Can you name them? Two are fairly obvious.
The reason for this precipitous drop in ranking is offense, going from 30th in 2023 all the way down to 87th! This isn’t basketball. There are only 134 schools in FBS. 87th! Ugh. I previously mentioned the main reason for this drop was the departure of Taulia Tagaviola. Unfortunately, I think the real reason is a very familiar one. Six of the eight offensive linemen who played in 2023 have departed due to graduation. Maryland has seven returning linemen and have brought in four offensive linemen through the portal this spring. Among those vying for playing time include a mid-4-star Dumervil [LSU transfer from last year], low 4-star transfer from Georgia Alio Bah, A D-II transfer, Alan Herron [previously committed to PSU who will undoubtedly see more playing time at Maryland], high 3-star/low-4-star Andre Roye, and Purdue transfer Josh Kaltenberger plus a handful of others. There is some talent but, it is mostly unproven. I don’t think this unit will result in the dumpster fire Connelly is predicting but, it is definitely the weakest and most unproven unit for the Terrapins.
I just don’t see the starting QB being anyone other than MJ Morris, the NC State transfer. He is fully capable of running Locks’ offense and there won’t be a huge significant drop-off in productin from Taulia. Backups are the very good running but not very good passing QB Billy Edwards, Jr. and decent passer Cam Edge, who is maturing and making progress.
Very productive RBs Roman Hemby and Colby McDonald return this year. And it sound like the staff is high on red-shirt freshmen Nolan Ray. This should be a solid group.
Cory Dyches, a very productive TE for Maryland in 2023, transferred from Maryland for no apparent reason. He briefly committed to Charlotte (!?!) before ending up a Cal where he’ll be playing on the West Coast in the Atlantic Coast Conference, which is about as dumb as and 18-team conference called the Big Ten. This saga reeks of a player looking for an NIL paycheck that never materialized.
Preston Howard and Dylan Wade return to the Terps in 2024 and will be fine replacements for the former primary TE Dyches. No expected drop-off at this position.
Tai Felton, Kadon Prather and Jeshaun Jones were, by far, the three most productive WRs in 2023 for the Terps. All were equally productive. Jones has signed on with the Minnesota Vikings as an UDFA and Felton and Prather return to the Terps in 2024.
Octavian Smith and Shaleak Knotts saw some playing time last year and looked good in their limited minutes on the field. Once again, the Terps have a very solid WR group.
The inexperience all along the offensive line is cause for concern, and a drop-off in production is expected. But, 30th to 87th out of 134 teams? Not with the talent Maryland has at the skilled positions. There is talent along the O-line, it is just unproven. OC Josh Gattis and HC/QB coach Mike Locksley are former Broyles Award winners. This is a very solid offensive coaching group. Their coaching acumen shoudl be considered.
I expect the terps to outperm Connelyy’s dire predicitons but, it ain’t going to be great. I’d looked for the offense to finish the year in the top 50.
Tomorrow will feature defense and special teams. A sunnier outlook than offense.
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