The first 12-team College Football Playoff projects to be an SEC party – so long as Notre Dame and the Big Ten don’t interfere.
Nine SEC teams profile as a playoff hopefuls. Not all of them can qualify.
Four playoff teams from the SEC seems reasonable. What about five? That’s a stretch, but doable if the SEC catches a few breaks.
On this edition of “SEC Football Unfiltered,” a podcast from the USA TODAY Network, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams unpack the SEC’s playoff outlook and handicap the hurdles standing in the way of the SEC qualifying as many as five teams.
Start with the Big Ten, which is the only other conference that could threaten to qualify as many teams as the SEC.
Then, what about Notre Dame? The Irish snagging an at-large bid hurts the SEC’s chances for five, but Texas A&M might wreck Notre Dame in Week 1.
The Big 12 and ACC are sleeper agents that could spoil the SEC’s five-qualifier quest.
TOPPMEYER:If SEC expands again, consider 4 ACC teams. But what about Notre Dame football?
ADAMS:Why nonconference football games will loom larger than ever
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS:Why ESPN can influence debate over SEC football’s conference schedule
Here’s how we see it:
Adams: Not happening. More like three. Four is pushing it. Not five. The SEC can get five. The Big Ten won’t. Who would even be the five? Ohio State and Oregon look good for the playoff. Maybe Penn State, too. Michigan and Southern Cal are contenders, but I’m not convinced either will qualify, considering their schedules.
Toppmeyer: No. I don’t know if the SEC will qualify five, but it has a better chance to qualify five than the B1G. For starters, the SEC will have more playoff contenders. I count nine playoff hopefuls from the SEC: Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Having nine contenders gives you a shot at qualifying five. Who projects as a contender from the B1G? Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and USC. And Michigan and USC will face brutal schedules. The Big Ten will qualify three or four. Not five.
Adams: I think Notre Dame will lose at Texas A&M in Week 1. And if that happens, the Irish aren’t making any playoff.
Toppmeyer: Ask me this question again in Week 2. Irish at Aggies seems like a coin-flip game. If Notre Dame wins, I like its chance to make the playoff. If the Irish lose, I think they’re on shaky ground, because they’d have no margin for error. If the Irish finished 10-2, their soft schedule would leave them vulnerable to missing the playoff. That makes Week 1 so important.
Adams: Big 12. That conference offers an avenue for a sleeper to emerge from the shadows.
Toppmeyer: Big 12, in part because I’m not sure there’s even more than two contenders in the ACC: Clemson and Florida State. I think each will be a one-bid league, but I like the Big 12’s chances better for two.
Adams: Five. Four teams will emerge as playoff locks, while a few others will engage in a mad tussle for the final spot.
Toppmeyer: Five. Just don’t ask me which five. My opinion on that changes almost by the day.
∎ Toppmeyer and Adams highlight four sneaky-good nonconference games to watch this season.
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Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. John Adams is the senior sports columnist for the Knoxville News Sentinel. Subscribe to the SEC Football Unfiltered podcast, and check out the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.
