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by Chris Murray
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While the changes to FBS conferences over the next two seasons aren't as seismic as the shifts that took place in the previous two years, it will impact two leagues significantly.
Those leagues are the Pac-12 and MW with the former trying to cannibalize the latter by stealing Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State starting with the 2026-27 season.
Conference realignment is almost entirely dictated by football and media-rights money, so let's see how these changes will impact the quality of football conferences in the FBS.
We'll look at the average Sagarin ranking of each of the 10 FBS conferences in the most recently completed season. The higher the number the better as it is a measure of the average Sagarin rating per school within the league.
2024 conference rankings
1. SEC, 82.07
2. Big Ten, 78.32
3. Big 12, 77.26
4. ACC, 72.71
5. Pac-12, 65.70
6. American Athletic, 64.12
7. Sun Belt, 63.20
8. Mountain West, 62.85
9. MAC, 59.21
10. Conference USA, 55.60
Unsurprisingly, the SEC tops the rankings, although the gap between it and the rest of the Power 4 has closed. The Big Ten is second with the Big 12 third, a good showing for that rebuilt conference. There's a decent drop-off to the ACC in fourth followed by the Pac-12, which had just two teams in 2024. The American Athletic Conference tops the Group of 5 followed by the Sun Belt, the MW, the MAC and C-USA. While Boise State made the College Football Playoff out of the MW, it was not a strong overall season for the league, and it's now three years running where that's been the case.
Worth noting the Pac-12, if it didn't fall apart, would have had an average Sagarin rating of 74.67 this season, which would have been around third in the nation if you remove Arizona State and Colorado from the Big 12. That again underlines how unnecessary it was for that conference to all but dissolve. But dissolve it did except for Oregon State and Washington State, which then poached the MW.
Here are the changes in football programs among FBS conferences on tap for the next two years.
2025 changes: Delaware and Missouri State join C-USA; UMass joins MAC
2026 changes: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State join Pac-12; UTEP and Northern Illinois join Mountain West
How will that impact the quality of FBS conferences in two seasons? I took the Sagarin rankings of the teams that will comprise the reformed leagues in 2026 and included those below. The Power 4, American and Sun Belt are not adding or losing teams, so those are unchanged. Noted are the differences in average Sagarin ranking per team in the four other conferences.
1. SEC, 82.07
2. Big Ten, 78.32
3. Big 12, 77.26
4. ACC, 72.71
5. Pac-12, 65.25 — Down 0.45
6. American Athletic, 64.12
7. Sun Belt, 63.20
8. Mountain West, 61.37 — Down 1.48
9. MAC, 57.59 — Down 1.62
10. Conference USA, 55.57 — Down 0.03
The Mountain West and MAC get worse while the Pac-12 and Conference-USA don't change much. That's good news for C-USA, which adds to FCS programs (Delaware, Missouri State) without taking much of a hit. The Pac-12 doesn't get much of a boost, although the alternative for Oregon State and Washington State was to join a conference it was superior to this season, per the Sagarin ratings, although not on the field. The Beavers and Cougars went a combined 1-6 against the teams that will remain in the MW, which shows those programs weren't really superior to the ones it deemed itself superior to (at least in 2024). Meanwhile, Oregon State and Washington State went 6-2 against teams that will join it in the new Pac-12. Maybe that's why they got invites.
As for the MW, it takes a clear hit in football quality, and that's based on a year in which the MW wasn't elite to start with as only two of the league's teams finished in the top 90 of the Sagarin ratings (Boise State and UNLV). The MW added Northern Illinois (Sagarin 94 out of 263 FBS and FCS teams) and UTEP (166) while losing Boise State (31), Fresno State (92), Colorado State (97), Utah State (103) and San Diego State (132). The only major loss from that perspective is Boise State, although Fresno State and San Diego State have generally been good in football, too, over the years. But the new Pac-12 has no argument for power-conference inclusion given how far it is from the ACC (65.25 to 72.71), let alone the Big 12 (72.71).
The MW bypassed FCS teams like South Dakota State (Sagarin 37), North Dakota State (40), Montana State (45) and Montana (112) in exchange for Northern Illinois (94) and UTEP (Sagarin 166). Based on these numbers, the new MW will have a tough time becoming the top Group of 6 football conference in the coming years, which is important given the CFP spot on the line for the top-five-ranked conference champions. The new Pac-12, American Athletic and Sun Belt all pace ahead of the rebuilt MW for now, but the MW is at least in front of the MAC and C-USA.
(We'll address it a later time, but where the MW really takes a hit with this realignment is men's basketball as it loses four excellent programs in San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State — average NET of 52 — and backfills with Grand Canyon, UC Davis, Hawaii and UTEP — average NET of 155.)
Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
