Tennessee football squandered a 5-0 start and a two-game winning streak to start SEC play with its loss at Arkansas on Saturday.
More importantly, the No. 4 Vols (4-1, 1-1 SEC) wasted their margin for error in its pursuit of the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance by losing 19-14 at Arkansas (4-2, 2-1) in Fayetteville, Arkansas. They still have potential paths to the playoff, including with another loss, but the scenarios are more challenging following UT’s first defeat of the season.
Here is the outlook for Tennessee in the CFP after the loss:
Simply, win the rest of the games.
A one-loss Tennessee team with wins against Alabama and at Georgia is going to make the College Football Playoff regardless of any potential SEC Championship Game scenarios. It would have a strong case to host as a top-eight seed and potentially earn a bye as a top-four seed. At 11-1, the Vols are in and probably a top-eight seed. At 12-1, the Vols are in and could be a top-four seed given the resume would include multiple standout wins.
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Tennessee would be on the outside looking in at the CFP in the four-team format. It would have to win out under that structure, while a second loss would eliminate it as it did in 2022 when the Vols lost at South Carolina.
That is not the case in the 12-team format.
Tennessee can afford another loss and still be in the conversation to make the College Football Playoff. That is good news for the Vols team still has to go to Georgia on Nov. 16. The bad news is it better not lose to anyone other than either the Bulldogs or maybe the Crimson Tide. A loss to Mississippi State or Kentucky would be problematic as a second loss paired with a loss to a middling Arkansas team.
Tennessee can’t afford two more losses because it’ll be hard to earn a bid as a 9-3 team. It would take unfathomable levels of chaos for a three-loss Vols team to get in even if the other two losses were to Alabama and Georgia.
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This is where the Arkansas loss is an anchor to Tennessee’s playoff goals: A two-loss Tennessee team with losses at Georgia and against Alabama would likely be in. A three-loss team with a loss at Arkansas is likely headed for another Florida bowl game.
Mike Wilson covers University of Tennessee athletics. Email him at michael.wilson@knoxnews.com and follow him on Twitter @ByMikeWilson. If you enjoy Mike’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that will allow you access to all of it.
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