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If the Illini had a football team, what would it look like?
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I want to be clear on something: I have no faith in this Illinois Fighting Illini football program at the moment.
The way the 2023 season played out felt so much like 2008 and looked so much like 2002 that it made 2022’s 8-win mark look less like a breakout season and more like a perfectly-timed confluence of individual elements that are no longer present and cannot be repeated.
Lightning in a bottle, as the old (and well-worn on Illini forums) adage goes.
I still wanted to contribute something to Illinois Week though, so I thought I’d put out a different kind of preview. If you want a realistic assessment of how Illinois is going to stumble to 8 or more losses as the defense takes another step back and the offense fails to replace the receiving production of Isaiah Williams and Casey Washington…just wait! Everyone else will put out this article as a preview because it’s plain as day. Look at 2024 recruiting! It’s not the kind of result you get when people believe you’re still on the rise.
This time I decided to look backwards. The goal, as always, is to win six. This is light work for virtually any other power conference program, but a peak Illinois has scaled only three times since 2011.
If Illinois fielded a winning-adjacent football team in the fall, what would it look like and how would it happen?
This is an enormous part of the process. Former UTSA wideout Zakhari Franklin is in the portal again after seeing minimal time in one season at Ole Miss. Once seen as a fringe NFL prospect with tape that includes a game with 10 catches for 155 yards against an Illini secondary featuring current NFL players Tony Adams, Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown (and also, for some fucking reason, Derrick Smith instead of Kerby Joseph), it might behoove him to reunite with former offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr at Illinois.
Make no mistake, Franklin would be an impact player. He couldn’t get on the field in a crowded Ole Miss receiver room, but he would be going to an offense he’s run before at Illinois.
The problem: my understanding is that he’s currently in summer school due to not graduating. He may very well be able to finish things up, but any time I hear anything like that, I assume he’s not coming to Illinois. History is littered with guys like this, some of whom ended up at schools with good academics. Maybe he’ll end up at Stanford, or maybe he’ll walk on to the MIT Engineers! (For the record, he has an official to Washington scheduled). Any sufficiently experienced Illini fan should abandon hope on this one, but it is still theoretically possible that Franklin starts at receiver for the Illini.
My conspiracy theory is that 2021 was actually the best offensive line Bret Bielema has had at Illinois, but 2022 got more accolades because Chase Brown ran for over 1600 yards and the team won 8 games. The line generated more push in 2021 than 2022, which is why the 2021 offense was more effective in short yardage situations. The 2022 offensive line was helped by a great scrambling quarterback in Tommy DeVito, but routinely got stuffed trying to get a yard or less. This cost them several games.
Whether or not you agree with me on that, the 2023 offensive line took a big step back. When you consider that Bret Bielema is the head coach, the offensive line struggling throws the whole operation into question. Nevertheless, by year four a team should be made in the image of the head coach entirely, and Bielema has recruited many offensive line prospects over the last few years to develop into starting linemen in later years.
Most of those players left, but we did swipe some guys in the transfer portal!
Center Josh Kreutz will return to be a capable signal caller who has been adequate despite being undersized. I would expect both starting tackles to be transfers (New Mexico transfer J.C. Davis and Grambling State transfer Melvin Priestly) and the guard spots to be up for grabs between Zy Crisler, Josh Gesky and former Michigan State guard Kevin Wigenton. Gesky played some tackle last year and whenever he did, quarterbacks got rocked.
If the transfer tackles are the real deal and if the group stays healthy and if the unproven guys behind these starters prove capable of some rotational minutes, this could be the best offensive line Bielema has had at Illinois. There’s some talent on this offense, but it doesn’t matter if the line can’t win battles.
After seeing the trend on the offensive line during Bielema’s tenure so far, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Illinois was able to convince a corner that started for last year’s Texas Longhorns to come to Champaign. Terrence Brooks is like rain on the desert that is the Illini secondary, especially after several defensive backs (included projected starter Zach Tobe) left for the portal. Safeties will be Matthew Bailey (returning from a season-long injury) and returning starter Miles Scott. Xavier Scott will return at corner, and Tyler Strain will be the third corner opposite Brooks.
There’s a pretty substantial drop-off behind the top 5 defensive backs, so Brooks will need to totally change the complexion of this defense in a Devon-Witherspoon manner. The secondary was a weak point for this horrendous defense last year and I am openly questioning if defensive coordinator Aaron Henry has what it takes to coach at this level. Brooks is a very high level player, and if Illinois is a winning team in the fall, his impact will be an enormous part of why.
In addition to improving the abominable secondary (which was what Henry was in charge of when Ryan Walters was the DC), another huge challenge faces the defense: replacing Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph on the line. Newton was the B1G Defensive Player of the Year last year despite playing half the season on a broken foot, and when he was off the field it felt like there were at most 10 men on the field for the Illini. TeRah Edwards will anchor the line at nose tackle again, and he’ll be backed up by Auburn transfer Enyce Sledge. That’s a great name for a nose tackle.
Filling in for the Law Firm of Newton and Randolph will be Florida State’s Dennis Briggs and Florida A&M’s Gentle Hunt. Illinois is pretty excited about Hunt in particular, as any interior lineman under 6 feet tall with a high motor is going to be compared to John Randle.
The rest of the defense is returning production, headlined by 2022 Freshman All American Gabe Jacas. It’s not clear if he’ll play on the line or outside at this point; I’d imagine he may do both, though he’s been a linebacker most of his two seasons. Seth Coleman and Alec Byant will also play edge/OLB, with Kenenna Odeluga and Dylan Rosiek in the middle.
There’s a couple other transfer players, but Brooks, Briggs and Hunt are the ones I expect to be either starters or high in the rotation. There’s a lot riding on their success.
As excited as I am about Brooks, even the Illinois bloggers closest to the program have made no secret of the fact that this team will go as far as the offense can take us. This is mostly where I just want to talk about what we have to replace, but everything on the offense flows from (2). Everything gets easier if the offensive line keeps the playbook open. Conversely, everything gets more difficult when the line collapses.
That happened against Kansas and Purdue and was a key reason the Illini fell out of those games. That they were able to put up some decent offensive numbers in spite of struggling to put a cohesive 5-man unit out there is a testament to what the skill players were able to accomplish. Isaiah Williams and Casey Washington really took the receiving game to another level, and they are now on NFL rosters. Reggie Love had a solid year as a dual threat back, but he now plays for Purdue.
Quarterback Luke Altmeyer has an opportunity to play his way to legend status. IF the offensive line delivers, he’ll be under a lot less pressure than last year. He had some trouble taking care of the ball in a few games, but at his absolute best he has the mechanics of Brandon Peters with the poise of Tommy DeVito. He had some big rushing numbers last year…which was not by design, but a byproduct of plays breaking down due to overwhelming pressure. Bret Bielema left him on the bench when he was cleared to return due to John Paddock having the hottest hand I’ve ever seen (following up an 85 yard game winning drive with a 500+ yard performance in a win), but he clearly still has a lot of faith in Luke.
Altmeyer will have Pat Bryant back at receiver, who had 560 yards and 7 touchdowns last year. There’s the possibility of a breakout season from Hank Beatty or Malik Elzy if the rapport develops. Slot receiver Mario Sanders was brought in from a juco to replace Williams, and Tip Reimann’s role at receiving TE will be filled by Murray State transfer Cole Rusk. At 6’6” and 245, Rusk is a very interesting prospect and was rated 4* as a transfer by 247sports.com. Illinois might have more TE action drawn up this year, which is a shame because that’s very B1G West.
In the backfield, Kaden Feagin is hoping to return for his sophomore season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Fellow sophomore Aiden Laughery suffered a knee injury that limited his impact. If they’re both healthy and if the offensive line is what it’s supposed to be, that pair has the makings of a classic bruiser-speedster combo.
Altmeyer has some pretty big expectations, but if the conditions are right and if some receivers take a step forward, he could lead this team to a bowl.
Between the contentious relationship between Ryan Walters and Bret Bielema, a lot of Illini coaches defecting to Purdue, Andy Buh’s surprising firing and various whispers of discontent, it’s clear that some kind of situation was happening within the coaching staff in 2022 that was not fully resolved in 2023. Perhaps this last coaching staff shakeup got everyone on the same page and all the bad vibes are gone.
There are two games on this schedule that Illinois should absolutely win 100% of the time. The opener against Eastern Illinois will for some reason take place on Thursday, August 29th at 8PM local time. I guess they didn’t want too many people to watch that one.
The other absolute win is Central Michigan, which has become a moribund program even within the context of the MAC. Illinois actually made a winnable game Homecoming for the first time in recent memory. Since I don’t get Peacock and don’t feel like pirating the stream, I’ll make the trip to be there in person.
It’ll be a year to the day since I lost my dad. If they lose this game I’ll make sure I never go back to that stadium by getting a lifetime ban.
MOVING ON!
Last year, Jalon Daniels played in exactly one game for the Kansas Jayhawks. It was of course against Illinois. What if Lance Leipold decided to save him for the conference schedule?
I don’t think we’re going to beat Kansas. They hired a better coach than we did who was available when the coach we hired was available. I don’t know enough about them to say if they’ve lost a lot from last year. I feel like they haven’t. I don’t feel like looking. This game was also not a great time for me, and when you consider what else happened that day, I just don’t want to think about this game that much.
Nebraska! Matt Rhule is bringing in some premium talent headlined by 5 star quarterback Dylan Raiola. Rhule is a quality coach, but perhaps catching them in September could give us an opportunity to surprise them before they’ve really jelled as a team. It won’t be as easy as “show him an even front,” but a lot of Big Ten West games are won by who makes fewer mistakes.
We have no business beating Penn State, but we weren’t as far from winning that game as the score suggested last year. Down to down we held our own, but four first half turnovers dug us a hole we couldn’t dig out of. Something is going to have to change from last year if we’re going to beat Purdue. Ryan Walters seemed to know exactly what we were doing every snap, especially on defense. Walters has won virtually every recruiting battle against Bielema since leaving Champaign, and even if he doesn’t turn out to be a great head coach I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Bret Bielema will ever defeat him.
October 19th against Michigan is the 100th anniversary (plus one day) of the Galloping Ghost game at the grand opening of Memorial Stadium, during which Red Grange famously scored four touchdowns in the first 12 minutes en route to a 39-14 blowout of the defending national champion Wolverines. I’m glad Jim Harbaugh is gone, partially so that he can stop advocating for regressive politics in the state where I live but also partially because he would absolutely spam Donovan Edwards in the first quarter just to rub our nose in it. We’re not winning this game.
We’re not quite Stanford enough to catch Oregon with their pants all the way down. Minnesota seems like a good opportunity. Michigan State is in the first year of a major rebuild, and then of course the following week is ILLINUTGERS. You throw out the records in a rivalry game like that.
Maybe against Northwestern, just for once it could be their team that does the incredibly silly cartoon shit to lose the game.
There are a lot of positions where we don’t have much depth. This is going to have to be an unusually healthy year. I don’t know if I’d say there’s a single position we’re really deep at. Maybe interior OL we have a decent rotation?
The consensus around the bloggers and posters “close to the program” is that this is going to be a great offensive line, Altmeyer is going to make us forget all about Big Time Tommy and the defense will…well…it certainly can’t get any worse. But when do posters close to the program ever really worry? By the time that’s happening it’s much too late.
The amount of conditional statements in this post should tell you how I feel about the likelihood of a winning team. I can, however, see the path. This isn’t quite 2017.
I’ll save an actual record prediction for later, but if Illinois somehow defies all odds and makes it to the promised land that is Detroit, it’ll be because several of these things panned out the way I said they needed to.
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