The No. 5 Texas Longhorns continue their run in the College Football Playoffs with a game against one of the nation’s most improved teams, the No. 4 Arizona Sun Devils, in the Peach Bowl.
Wednesday’s game is the first of three quarterfinals, and the winner will face the winner of No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Penn State.
Though Texas is the lower seed because Arizona State was the fourth-ranked conference champion, it comes in as a 13 1/2-point favorite, the biggest spread of the quarterfinals.
Wednesday’s first quarterfinal, packaged as the Peach Bowl, features No. 5 Texas playing No. 4 Arizona State in Atlanta. Kickoff is at 11 a.m. Mountain/1 p.m. Eastern.
The Texas vs. Arizona State game will be televised nationally on ESPN at 11 a.m. Mountain/1 p.m. Eastern.
The game kicks off at 11 a.m. Mountain/1 p.m. Central.
Texas is a 13 1/2-point home favorite over Arizona State in college football odds, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. The Longhorns are -550 on the money line, while the Sun Devils are +400. The over/under is 52 1/2 points.
The line: Texas 33, Arizona State 19
With a line of 13 1/2 points and an over/under of 52 1/2, Texas is expected to win 33-29 or 33-20.
The El Paso Times: Texas 35, Arizona State 21
Bret Bloomquist writes: “Texas hasn’t played a complete game against a quality team all season but keeps finding a way through. Look for more of the same against Arizona State.”
David Caraviello writes: “Don’t let the funny name fool you—Skattebo’s 1,568 rush yards during the regular season ranked fifth nationally, his total nearly matching what Blue and Wisner accumulated combined. He’s gone for 170, 177 and 147 yards in his last three games, two of those against nationally ranked opponents. Can Arizona State win? Maybe not. But on a neutral field, can it run the ball, shorten the game, and scare a Texas team that hasn’t been very good at covering big spreads? Absolutely.”
James Fragoza writes: “While the Sun Devils have been a great story and should give the Longhorns more fits than Clemson was able to, raw talent and depth will likely see them fall short. Texas’ defense ranks seventh in EPA per rush, 13th in third/fourth-down success rate, and first in net points per drive, so it should be able to contain Skattebo (as much as that is possible). On the flip side, as long as Ewers doesn’t turn into a pumpkin at the absolute wrong moments, the offense should continue humming. Arizona State’s defense is 48th in early down EPA, 70th in success rate, and 57th in points per drive. Take Sarkisian and Co. to continue their CFP journey with a convincing — albeit close — victory over the Sun Devils.”
It writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives Texas a win probability of 83%, while Arizona State has a win probability of 17%.”
The site’s matchup predictor gives ASU football a 20.4% shot to beat Texas in the CFP quarterfinal game.
Bret Bloomquist can be reached at bbloomquist@elpasotimes.com; @Bretbloomquist on X.
