BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana’s football rise into the national elite has been such a dizzying, intoxicating ride that it felt like it might never end.
Alas, No. 2 Ohio State dealt the Hoosiers a reality check with a dominant 38-15 victory Saturday at Ohio Stadium.
Most Indiana observers understood that a splash of water in the metaphorical face of Indiana football was likely when the College Football Playoff rankings came out.
Once revealed? It was a pretty cold splash that hit the Hoosiers late Tuesday night.
Indiana (10-1) fell to the No. 10 spot in the rankings. Six one-loss teams (Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) and two two-loss teams (Georgia, Tennessee) are ahead of the Hoosiers. Indiana is rated the worst of the one-loss Power Four conference teams.
Because of the way the College Football Playoff bracket is constructed, Indiana is the last team in the 12-team field. Two teams ranked lower than Indiana would make the field as projected conference champions.
It’s a precarious position for Indiana as its margin for error has been exhausted. Still, there are plenty of happy and heartbreaking outcomes to consider as the college football season gets closer to its pre-Playoff climax.
Here’s a few scenarios to consider after the College Football Playoff committee set the latest pecking order Tuesday.
The best-case scenario
• If Indiana wants to go for the glory? Apart from the obvious win Indiana needs over Purdue, Hoosiers fans can hope for a Michigan win over Ohio State and a Maryland victory at Penn State. That would put Indiana into the Big Ten championship game against Oregon. A win in that game would give Indiana a bye into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
However, the risk in that is that if the Hoosiers were to lose, they could be out of the CFP field altogether depending on what happens elsewhere. High reward, but high risk, too.
For Indiana to get back into the playoff hosting picture? The Hoosiers probably need at least two of the following results: Georgia loses at home to Georgia Tech on Friday night, Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, Miami loses at Syracuse, SMU loses to California at home or Notre Dame loses at Southern California on Saturday.
After the upsets that took place in Week 13? Stranger things have happened.
The most realistic good scenario
• If your best-case scenario is to beat Purdue, but lose the risk of incurring a second loss by missing the Big Ten championship game? It’s as simple as beating the Boilermakers on Saturday night. Given that Indiana are currently 28.5 point favorites, that is a solid probability.
However, Indiana is looking over its shoulder, too. No. 12-ranked Clemson lurks behind the Hoosiers and has a chance at a quality win when the Tigers host rival South Carolina Saturday. Though the Gamecocks are also lurking in the No. 15 spot, it would do Indiana a world of good to have South Carolina get Clemson off Indiana’s rear bumper.
The worst-case scenario
• This is simple: Indiana loses to Purdue. Barring a litany of upsets elsewhere, a loss to the Boilermakers would be a mortal blow to the Hoosiers’ CFP hopes.
Another worst-case scenario would be if Indiana beat Purdue, but Texas A&M beat Texas to make it to the SEC championship game and then pulled a major upset in that contest against Georgia.
That would put the Aggies in the CFP field as a bid-stealer and knock every other team down a notch. If Indiana was still on the bubble, this would cause it to burst.
The most realistic bad scenario
• Indiana beats Purdue, but not convincingly. A two-touchdown win or less is going to reflect poorly on the Hoosiers. Like it or not, style points matter.
If Indiana squeaked by the Boilermakers, in combination with a Clemson win over South Carolina and no upsets in front of them, it would be high time for Hoosiers fans to start to sweat.
Add in an Alabama win over Auburn and/or an Ole Miss victory over Mississippi State? The Hoosiers might survive it all, but the conference championship games and the reveal of final rankings on Dec. 8 would be a white-knuckle experience for Indiana.
The most ambiguous scenario
• Indiana beats Purdue, but once again, not convincingly. However, some of the teams ahead of Indiana also lose.
Any loss by either Georgia or Tennessee would be trouble for either team as it would be their third defeat. SMU has had a great season, but the Mustangs would take a hit if they lost at home to California. Similarly, Miami has just one loss, but the Hurricanes have won their share of close shootouts during the season.
Add in wins by Clemson, Alabama and Ole Miss? Perhaps toss in a Texas A&M victory over Texas that would put the potential bid-stealing Aggies in the SEC championship game? The CFP committee would have one heckuva Gordian knot to untangle going into the conference championship games.
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