The final week of the 2024 Vermont high school football regular season has arrived. To set the stage, I dusted off my calculator, took an advanced course in the Quality Point Rating, the system used to determine playoff seeds, and crunched the numbers to break down what’s exactly at stake before the start of Week 8 on Thursday night.
In Division I, two things are clear: The playoff field is set with the eight teams and unbeaten Champlain Valley has already locked up the top seed. The No. 1 seed in D-II is still up in the air while BFA-Fairfax/Lamoille has the inside track to the top spot in D-III.
Tournament play opens Friday, Oct. 25, and wraps with a championship tripleheader at St. Johnsbury Academy on Saturday, Nov. 9.
Here is my unofficial look at the postseason scenarios for D-I, D-II and D-III. If you spot a error, remember I majored in journalism not mathematics, but comments are greatly appreciated at aabrami@freepressmedia.com.
Enjoy!
Note: Burr and Burton, Brattleboro and BFA-St. Albans have been eliminated from postseason contention.
At 7-0, the Redhawks will enter the playoffs with the No. 1 seed and will host a quarterfinal game on Saturday, Oct. 26.
A home win over Hartford would garner the No. 2 seed for Rutland (5-1 in-state record). A loss could drop Rutland from hosting a quarterfinal game.
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The Tigers still have a lot to play for in Week 8 despite host BBA out of the playoff picture. A Middlebury (5-2) triumph over the Bulldogs opens the door for a path to the two-seed. A loss might drop the Tigers as far as the No. 6 position.
The Hornets (4-3) host winless BFA-St. Albans on Friday night, and a victory most likely gives them the four-seed with a chance to climb to the three spot if Middlebury loses. A loss might drop Essex as low as the sixth seed.
On a four-game-winning streak, the SeaWolves (6-1) have their biggest challenge yet: At home vs. CVU on Friday night. A win over the top seed would shake up the teams in line for hosting quarterfinal games. A loss to the Redhawks could drop the SeaWolves as low as sixth.
More:What we learned from Week 7 of the 2024 Vermont high school football season
The 5-2 Hurricanes can jump as high as the two-seed in a home decision over Rutland. A defeat means Hartford will lock up the No. 6 spot.
Winners of four out of their last five games, the Hilltoppers (4-3) can lock up the No. 7 spot with a road victory over rival Lyndon in “The Game.” The eight-seed is in play if they lose to the Vikings.
The Patriots (3-4) need to win and have St. Johnsbury lose to secure the seven-seed. Otherwise, win or lose vs. Brattleboro, MAU has the No. 8 spot and a date at CVU.
The Green Knights (6-1) play at Milton in Week 8 and can likely secure a top-two seed with a victory.
In Week 8, the Terriers are playing an out-of-state team (Sanborn, N.H.), which will have no bearing on their QPR. But given the strength of schedule component of the QPR, the Terriers can still jump to the top spot.
The Slaters (5-2) take on Poultney at home to wrap up the regular season. A victory secures a home quarterfinal game, with a chance at getting the two-seed.
The Vikings (5-2) have a tough assignment in taking on high-scoring St. Johnsbury in the teams’ 119th meeting in “The Game.” An upset victory over the Hilltoppers could launch Lyndon to at least the three-seed. A loss has the Vikings in the middle of the pack with still a chance at the four-seed.
If the Lakers (3-4) beat Mount Mansfield on Friday night, they’ll be alive for a home quarterfinal game.
The Eagles (5-2) need to beat North Country and get some help to host a home quarterfinal.
The Raiders (2-5) halted a five-game losing streak in Week 7 and now host Spaulding in the finale with a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a victory.
The defending champion Falcons (2-5) almost assuredly get into the playoffs with a home win over Mount Abraham.
The Yellowjackets (2-5) need to beat Rice and get some help to qualify for postseason play.
Just like Milton, the Cougars (1-6) need to win their Week 8 game at Colchester and get some help to book a playoff spot.
The Crimson Tide (1-5) need a win in Week 8 (at U-32) and some major help to keep their season alive.
Note: With Oxbow cancelling its varsity season back in August, all remaining teams in D-III will advance to the postseason tournament.
The Bullets (7-0) should secure the No. 1 seed with a Week 8 home victory over Missisquoi.
The Wasps (5-0 in-state, 6-0 overall), who play at Windsor, can finish no lower than the two-seed. There’s an outside chance at the top seed.
The Cosmos (4-3), who are on a bye this week, are still in play for the three-seed depending on how results play out in Week 8.
The Otters (3-3) will likely secure the No. 3 seed with a win over Mill River.
At 2-5, Mill River won’t garner enough QPR points to claim a home quarterfinal.
Like Mill River, the Blue Devils (2-4) will open the playoffs on the road.
The defending champs are also fighting with Poultney and Mill River for seeds 5-7.
Unless they pull off the division’s upset of the season at Fairfax/Lamoille, the Thunderbirds (0-7) will enter the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
Contact Alex Abrami at aabrami@freepressmedia.com. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter: @aabrami5.
