Opinion: The latest estimate states FIFA tournament could cost as much as $341 million more than lowball estimate from just two years ago.
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VICTORIA — Well, I am shocked — shocked — to learn that it will cost far more to host seven World Cup games in Vancouver than the politicians let on when they were locking in the deal with FIFA, soccer’s grasping international overseer.
B.C. Tourism Minister Lana Popham and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim took the wraps off the latest estimate this week, admitting it could cost as much as $581 million, $341 million more than over the lowball estimate of $240 million from just two years ago.
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Popham promised the update two months ago. “We don’t have a working number today, but we’ll have that soon,” she told reporters Feb. 27. “We know, generally, ballpark, what sporting events cost, and so my team is running those numbers.”
Running the numbers took longer than expected. There were two more games added to the schedule, the team had to cost out FIFA’s demands, and other factors.
“We wanted to make sure that we had accurate numbers for British Columbians,” the tourism minister said Tuesday.
So, this is, like, take-it-to-the bank reliable?
“The numbers we put forward today we’re very confident in,” Popham told reporters. “We’ve really left room in contingencies, we’ve accounted for inflation, and so the budget we put forward today we believe is the one that is accurate.”
Yet the fine print of her own presentation acknowledged that the numbers — a low of $483 million to the high of $581 million — were subject to change.
Those are “cost estimates,” reflecting “point-in-time assumptions and planning uncertainties,” based on “what we know today.”
The province listed a dozen or so factors that could force revisions, including a higher-than-expected rate of inflation, disruption of supply chains, and the cost of providing safety and security in a dangerous world.
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Then there’s FIFA. The organization has already imposed major demands on the city and the provincially owned B.C. Place host stadium, in contracts that have not been shared with the public.
There could well be more to come, with visiting FIFA executives issuing new demands for “refinements to hosting requirements.”
Nor can B.C. balk: the contracts are iron clad. There is no walking away at this point.
Still, Popham insisted that, “We’ve made it very clear to FIFA that this is not a blank cheque.”
That’s a relief. An overrun of up to 142 per cent on the initial cost estimate in just two years. I’d hate to think what the province and city might be facing had they issued FIFA a blank cheque.
The city’s share of the tab could run as high as $276 million, a 20-per-cent increase from a year ago, according to the update.
The biggest cost to the province is almost $200 million in FIFA-imposed improvements to B.C. Place, nearly double what it cost to build the stadium 40 years ago.
The money will buy bigger elevators, gender neutral washrooms, improved Wi-Fi, a central video board, executive suites, and “a natural grass pitch” as required by FIFA.
Stadium manager Chris May explained what the latter entails.
“They (FIFA) have studies going at two U.S. universities where they’re growing grass seed in different environments,” he told Gloria Macarenko of CBC’s Early Edition earlier this year.
“They will come to us and they will say this is the type of grass seed. This is when you install. This is how you grow. This is when you water to make sure that every pitch around all 16 (tournament) stadiums and the massive differences in climate zones and that type of thing give a consistency for all the stadiums.”
Sounds like the most expensive landscaping job in provincial history. Nor is it permanent, unless they can figure out how to protect the natural turf in a stadium used for concerts, trade shows and the like.
The tourism minister devoted her share of the news conference to downplaying the costs and promoting the benefits of hosting the World Cup.
Popham claimed the seven games “will generate more than $1 billion in additional tourist dollars from 2026 to 2031.” She had me recalling Premier Gordon Campbell’s fanciful claim that the 2010 Winter Olympics would generate $10 billion in benefits and create 250,000 jobs over 35 years.
The province is forecasting direct revenue of between $383 million and $486 million from hosting the World Cup. Popham said that meant the net cost would be only $100 million to $145 million.
Her “revenue” estimate includes a promised contribution of $116 million from the federal government. But that’s a cost, borne by the country’s taxpayers, including those from B.C., not a source of revenue as the New Democrats imagine.
The all-in gross cost is approaching $100 million per game, with two years still to go before FIFA takes exclusive control of B.C. Place for the duration of the World Cup.
Popham discounts the likelihood of any major increases between now and then.
“I think taxpayers expect us to work within that budget.”
Surely. But unless taxpayers were born yesterday, they won’t be surprised if the budget is busted again before FIFA moves on to its next victim.
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