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The U.S. men’s national team face a make-or-break match against Uruguay on Monday to keep their Copa America hopes alive, live at 9 p.m. ET. The tournament hosts are coming off a surprise 2-1 loss to Panama on Thursday after suffering an early red card, putting them in a tough position to qualify for the quarterfinals. The easiest scenario for them to advance out of the group is to beat Uruguay, but that will be no easy feat — the 15-time Copa America champions have been one of the best teams at the competition so far, outscoring their opponents 8-1 in their first two group stage matches. Though Uruguay are in pole position to advance, they still have not clinched a spot in the last eight and may be aiming for another commanding performance in Kansas City on Monday.
Here’s what you need to know before tuning in.
Uruguay are atop the group with six points and need only a draw to book their spot in the next round, but will likely survive even if they lose thanks to their +7 goal differential. The USMNT and Panama are tied with three points each but the tiebreak currency favors the U.S., whose +1 goal differential gives them a narrow edge over Panama’s -1 tally. Bolivia have zero points and technically still have a shot to advance with a win, but will need to make up a lot of ground because of their -7 goal differential.
United States: Coming into the Copa America, the bare minimum expectation was to advance out of the group stage but after Thursday’s loss, there’s a real possibility they fall short of that goal. The 2-1 defeat to Panama revealed plenty of the team’s shortcomings, firstly with Timothy Weah’s 18th-minute red card demonstrating that the USMNT iare surprisingly unable to handle playing against physical opponents despite the familiarity of a regional opponent. Head coach Gregg Berhalter’s decision to go defensive through his halftime substitutions, though, cost his team in a handful of ways. First, he introduced Cameron Carter-Vickers but the center back seemed frazzled throughout, but the game plan also disadvantaged the U.S.’ two most exciting players at this tournament — attackers Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, who are responsible for all three of their goals so far at the Copa America.
Berhalter will be without Weah through suspension, which could hurt a U.S. team that’s in need of goals. Weah would also miss a potential quarterfinal due to suspension.
Above all, though, Berhalter and company are going to have to muster up something they have rarely ever done — a win against a top-20 team. The head coach has just five wins against opponents ranked that high, but four are against Mexico and one is against Iran. This version of the USMNT has no statement wins to speak of but will likely need to deliver just that in order to advance on Monday.
Uruguay: Some might argue that Uruguay are the most exciting team at the Copa America so far, wasting little time making their case as the dark horse to win the competition. They have succeeded precisely where the U.S. have not in Group C, matching their pre-game favorability and their in-game dominance with lopsided scorelines that show strong signs of a resurgence. Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez already has two goals in two games but Uruguay are spreading the goalscoring responsibilities while maintaining composure in the back, indicating strong signs of a deep run. They are rightfully the favorites against the U.S. on Monday, with tests later in the tournament expected to reveal just how good this team actually is.
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While the USMNT will be without Weah, Uruguay carry a suspension of their own into the game, albeit an unconventional one. Well-respected head coach Marcelo Bielsa, who is successfully leading a refresh of a historically talented team, will miss out to serve a one-game suspension because the team returned late to the pitch in the second half of their 5-0 win over Bolivia on Thursday.
The same suspension was handed to Argentina counterpart Lionel Scaloni earlier this tournament, as well as Chile head coach Ricardo Gareca and Venezuela’s Fernando Batista.
If two teams are level on points following the group stage, it’s always important to take a look at the tiebreakers as there can be slight differences in each tournament for when certain rules are applied for advancement. Below is how Copa America applies tiebreakers:
It is hard to envision the USMNT doing something it has never done in the five years Berhalter’s been in charge — punch above their weight and win a game they were the underdogs in, especially with their backs against the wall. It will be extra challenging without Weah and with Uruguay in their current form, expect the visitors to pick up another win and send the hosts packing. Pick: USMNT 1, Uruguay 2
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