Undervalued Rookies to Draft (2024 Fantasy Football) – FantasyPros

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Rookies are one of the last remaining edges to exploit in all of your drafts in 2024. ADPs lag. Upside is hard to contextualize for some, and plenty of people will shy away from drafting them because “they haven’t seen them produce yet.” Not me. Give me all the late-season rookie hammers I can get ahold of, especially the undervalued one. These are my favorite undervalued rookies to target in fantasy football in 2024.

Let’s get this out of the way. If Daniels starts every game this season, his rushing equity alone will push him into the top 12 of fantasy quarterbacks. In his final season at LSU, Daniels rushed for 1,134, and now he’s paired with an offensive coordinator who is quite familiar with game planning with a mobile quarterback. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will feature play-action and deep passing, which are two of Daniels’ stand-out strengths. At the height of Kyler Murray‘s powers under Kliff Kingsbury (2021), he ranked fifth in deep ball rate and 11th in play-action dropback rate. In 2023, Daniels led all collegiate passers in deep passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate while also ranking fourth in play-action passing grade. Daniels being ranked outside the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks is a gift. Enjoy it.
McCarthy’s ranking is as low as it is because of the uncertainty of when he will be the team’s starter in 2024. If we knew he was walking into Week 1 as the guy under center, he’d be a mid-range QB2. McCarthy is a strong bet on talent and situation not only to start this year but also to surpass expectations when he does. In his final season at Michigan, he ranked 10th in passing grade, fourth in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. A player with this talent level in Kevin O’Connell’s system should flourish. Last year, in the eight games, Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs played at least 70% of the offensive snaps; they finished as the QB11 or higher in weekly fantasy, scoring 63% of the time. That would have been the sixth-highest QB1 scoring rate in fantasy last year. Draft McCarthy as an upside QB2 this year.
Maye is in a similar situation as McCarthy. We have no clue how long Jacoby Brissett starts this season (if at all). Maye has the talent also to be a strong QB2 and flirt with some QB1 production if he gets the gig at some point. In his final season in college, Maye ranked eighth in passing grade and big-time throw rate. He adds some value also with his legs with some possible rushing utility. New England has some underrated skill players in-house (Antonio Gibson, DeMario Douglas, and Javon Baker) that could help Maye make some noise in his rookie season.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re probably already aware that MarShawn Lloyd was one of my man crushes throughout the NFL Draft cycle. While his landing spot has turned many off, I’m not fazed. Will Josh Jacobs be heavily involved weekly? Sure, but that doesn’t mean that Lloyd is a zero or change-of-pace option only. Lloyd crushed every part of the predraft process after jumping off the stat sheet during his final two collegiate seasons. In each of those two years, he finished in the top 20 in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, and PFF elusive rating. Lloyd will quickly be a major factor in this backfield, with his main competition for touches (Josh Jacobs) hoping for a bounceback year. Last year, Jacobs struggled mightily to break tackles and create big plays as he ranked (among 49 qualifying backs last season per Fantasy Points Data) 41st in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Lloyd is an RB3/4 who can easily out-kick his ADP this season.
Wright got decent draft capital (fourth-round) in the NFL Draft, but he landed in a nightmare situation. Raheem Mostert is coming off arguably the best season of his career, and De’Von Achane is one of the league’s most explosive rushers. Wright looks to be on the outside looking in for rushing volume right now, but it only takes one injury to change that. Mostert and Achane haven’t exactly been pictures of health in the NFL. Wright is the perfect late-round high-upside draft pick to covet this year. The talented rookie, who ranked fifth in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in elusive rating (per PFF), is only one domino’s fall away from consistent RB2/3 production this year.
Vidal might have tumbled down the NFL draft board, but don’t make the mistake of assuming that he lacks the talent profile to take over the Bolts’ backfield. His competition (Gus Edwards & J.K. Dobbins) isn’t exactly overwhelming. Last year, Vidal ranked 21st in PFF’s elusive rating while proving that he can handle volume with at least 23 carries in 57% of his games. With Greg Roman at the controls, there will be plenty of rushing volume to chew on, even if he doesn’t claim the workhorse role. From 2019-2022 with Baltimore, Roman coordinated an offense that ranked first in neutral rushing rate. Vidal could be a flex play in Week 1 with the upside to grow into more (RB2) as the season moves along.

Burton has a clear path to volume behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He should be starting three-wide sets from Day 1. Tyler Boyd has been a descending player for the last few seasons, and even as the team’s third wheel, he drew between 83 and 98 targets per season. Burton could push for 100-plus in his rookie season. The passing volume should be there, as Cincinnati was third in neutral passing rate last year when Joe Burrow was healthy and looking like his usual self. Off-the-field issues are the only reason that Burton was available when the Bengals selected him in the NFL Draft. Based on talent alone, he should have been at least a second-round pick and could have honestly pushed for a first-round selection. In his final season at Alabama, Burton was in the 90th percentile against single coverage and 82nd percentile in YPRR. If Tee Higgins gets moved prior to Week 1 or holds out, Burton’s stock will soar through the roof.
Pearsall Jr. could easily get squeezed for playing time and volume in year one, but he’s one injury or Deebo Samuel trade away from being an exquisite value. Pearsall Jr. became one of my favorite players during the NFL Draft cycle. His film was fantastic as he oozes high-end route running prowess with the athleticism to stretch the field. In his final season at Florida, he finished in the 89th percentile in receiving grade, the 91st percentile in receiving grade against single coverage, and the 90th percentile in separation percentage. Pearsall Jr. could be a player that is dropped to waivers by Week 4, but the upside is there for him to absolutely crush as well in his rookie season.
Another NFL Draft cycle crush has crept into redraft season, with McCaffrey making this list. McCaffrey crushed every part of the process. He flashed big time at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, and then he opened a ton of eyes during his athletic testing. Despite his last name, I don’t think many people were expecting him to walk away with a 4.46 forty time and a 96th percentile agility score. Don’t be blown away when McCaffrey is starting in two wide receiver sets over Jahan Dotson. McCaffrey is still honing his game, especially against man coverage, but he already has a good feel for and understanding of how to beat zone coverage. In a league where every team utilizes zone coverage on at least 54.5% of their defensive snaps and 23 teams run it on at least 66% of their snaps, McCaffrey should be able to hit the ground running. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. McCaffrey is a magnificent dart to toss in as many drafts as possible.
In deeper leagues or leagues with premiums on tight ends, Sinnott is a strong late-round pick. Yes, if you’re combing through this article looking for Jahan Dotson‘s name, you won’t find it. After two massively disappointing campaigns, Dotson has given little reason to hope for a third-year breakout, which is why I’m mentioning Sinnott and, subsequently, Luke McCaffrey next. This offense has the potential to surprise people in 2024. If that does happen, not only could Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson pop among skill players, but Jayden Daniels is likely taking another player along for the ride. The fossilized remains of Zach Ertz are all that stand between Sinnott and a banner rookie season. Sinnott checks all the boxes that I look for with a tight end with massive upside. He’s an electric athlete (9.7 RAS) and a widely underrated receiving threat. In 2023, he was ninth in YPRR and receiving grade while also checking in at fourth in missed tackles forced. If there’s a rookie tight end that could pop in year one not named Brock Bowers, it’s Sinnott.

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Derek Brown
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Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.
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