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Jan Age Fjortoft believes Germany are building something special and thinks they have a great chance at winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. (1:00)
The UEFA Nations League (UNL) group stage is over, and there was much more at stake than you might think. In fact, you might say you need a degree in football administration to have fully understood the machinations.
For the original editions, the Nations League was mostly about qualifying for the finals, plus promotion and relegation between the four levels. But the 2024-25 format saw more teams go through to the knockout format, plus added promotion/relegation playoffs. And for the first time, the final positions had some impact on the qualifying draw for the next FIFA World Cup.
We look at how it all played out, and what it meant for the race to reach United States, Mexico and Canada in the summer of 2026.
Stick with us …
There are four “divisions”: League A, B, C (with four groups of four nations) and D (with two groups of three). League A is the strongest and League D the weakest.
Qualifying for the quarterfinals and finals
In League A, the top two teams in each of the four groups go through to two-legged quarterfinals, to be played in March. The winners of these ties will take part in the finals, with one-legged semifinals and a final in June.
The draw takes place on Friday, with the group winners at home in the second leg.
Promotion and relegation
The countries who won League B and C were automatically promoted to League A and B, respectively. Those who finished bottom of League A and B were directly relegated to League B and C.
The winners of the two League D groups were promoted, while the two teams in League C who finished bottom with the worst record have gone down.
Playoffs
New for this edition is promotion/relegation playoffs, also be to be held in March. Teams who are third in League A will play two-legged ties against second-placed nations from League B. Likewise, third in League B will face second in League C. The winners will play in the higher league.
The two nations who finished bottom in League C with the best record face a promotion/relegation playoff against runners-up of League D, delayed to be played in March 2026.
The draw for the playoffs also takes place on Friday, with the teams in the higher league at home in the second leg.
There’s a handful of reasons and, remarkably, it’s more complicated than the UEFA Nations League itself.
World Cup qualifying draw seeding
Teams will be drawn into 12 groups of four or five nations on Dec. 13. Groups of five will begin qualifying in March. Groups of four won’t play any qualifiers until September. Why’s that? Because fixture slots need to be free for countries to play those UNL playoffs and knockout ties.
The eight teams in the UNL quarterfinals will all need free dates in March, with the four finalists also requiring June to be empty. As the World Cup qualifying draw is next month, FIFA won’t know who needs both March and June free. FIFA has therefore given UEFA permission to put all eight UNL quarterfinalists (Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) in Pot 1 of the World Cup draw. If you finished in the top two of UNL League A, you’re seeded and could get a more favourable route to the next World Cup.
Pot 1 will have 12 nations, and is completed by the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking who aren’t yet seeded: England, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria. It just so happens that those 12 nations are in fact the top 12 European teams in the FIFA World Ranking, thus the clause to seed the top two teams in a UNL group wasn’t actually needed.
For all other pots, places are allocated purely by FIFA World Ranking.
But wait … Depending on how many teams need to play promotion and relegation playoffs, FIFA may have to juggle the pots slightly. For instance, if there are too many teams in Pot 2 who need to have March free, then a swap with Pot 3 might be needed. It looks like that won’t be necessary, and a valid draw can be completed with these pots, but we need final confirmation from UEFA and FIFA, which is due next week.
One more complication? As the UNL quarterfinals don’t take place until March, eight of the 12 World Cup groups won’t know their full lineup until then. Four of the groups with four teams will get “winners of quarterfinal tie,” as they must be free for March and June. Four others get “losers of quarterfinal tie.” Only four groups will be complete as of Dec. 13.
Contrary to some reports, all playoff teams do not go into a group of four. In fact it’s impossible, because 10 Pot 1 teams need to play UNL playoffs or quarterfinals in March, and there are only six groups of four teams. Thus, four UNL playoffs or quarterfinals (losing) teams from Pot 1 must go into a group of five — but that group cannot contain a playoff team from any other pot. For instance, if Belgium are placed in a group of five they couldn’t draw Slovakia or Bulgaria.
All teams in Pot 2, 3 and 4 who need a playoff, other than those in the two C-D playoffs, will be placed into a four-team group.
Playoff places for UNL group winners
The 12 winners of the UEFA World Cup qualifying groups will go direct to the World Cup. The 12 runners-up enter playoffs.
There are also four playoff slots for the best UNL group winners who do not finish in the top two of a World Cup group. What does that mean? Well, the UNL League A winners are very unlikely to need a World Cup playoff, which means winning a League B group will almost certainly give you a playoff, and being one of the best League C group winners gives a great chance.
The priority order for the four World Cup playoff places is:
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France
England
Norway
Wales
Czechia
Romania
Sweden
North Macedonia
Northern Ireland
Moldova
San Marino
Of the teams to have the right to a playoff, this is the breakdown by World Cup draw pot.
Pot 1: 5
Pot 2: 5
Pot 3: 2
Pot 4: 0
Pot 5: 2
So, if the top 2 World Cup group positions go by pot strength, both Moldova and San Marino would end up in a World Cup playoff.
There are 16 teams in the playoffs, creating four paths with one-legged semifinals and a final, to be played in March 2026.
UEFA and FIFA certainly know how to make this complicated.
Craig Burley speaks after England’s 5-0 win against Ireland in the Nations League.
Qualified for UNL finals: Germany, Portugal, Spain, France (seeded); Croatia, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands (unseeded)
League A/B playoffs: Belgium, Hungary, Scotland, Serbia (A); Austria, Greece, Turkey, Ukraine (B)
Relegation from League A to League B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Israel, Poland, Switzerland
Promotion from League B to League A: Czechia, England, Norway, Wales
League B/C playoffs: Georgia, Iceland, Republic of Ireland, Slovenia (B); Armenia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Slovakia (C)
Relegation from League B to League C: Albania, Finland, Kazakhstan, Montenegro
Promotion from League C to League B: Northern Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, Sweden
League C/D playoffs: Latvia, Luxembourg (C); Gibraltar, Malta (D)
Relegation from League C to D: Azerbaijan, Lithuania
Promotion from League D to League C: Moldova, San Marino
LEAGUE A1
Portugal (14 points) are through to the quarterfinals along with Croatia (7)
Scotland (7) scored a 93rd-minute winner in Poland (4) to finish third and enter the playoffs, with the home side last and relegated.
LEAGUE A2
Italy (13) and France (10) qualified for the quarterfinals.
Israel (4) beat Belgium (4) on Sunday, but the head-to-head means Belgium are in the playoffs and Israel relegated.
LEAGUE A3
Germany (14) and Netherlands (9) booked a slot in the quarterfinals.
Hungary (6) will be in the relegation playoff.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (2) are relegated.
LEAGUE A4
Spain (16) secured a place in the top two and were joined by Denmark (8), who got the draw they needed in Serbia (6) to take a spot in the quarterfinals.
Switzerland (2) are relegated.
LEAGUE B1
The group is completely up in the air, with the four nations separated by three points.
Czechia (11) secured automatic promotion with a 2-1 win at home to Georgia (7), who dropped to third and face a relegation playoff.
Ukraine (8) climbed from last to second, and a promotion playoff, with a 2-1 victory over Albania (7), who are automatically relegated with the highest points total in this edition.
LEAGUE B2
England (15) topped the group on head-to-head above Greece (15), who face a playoff.
Republic of Ireland (6) will take on a League C team in a playoff.
Finland (0) are relegated.
LEAGUE B3
Norway (13) took automatic promotion on the final day with a 5-0 win over Kazakhstan, as Austria (11) drew at home with Slovenia (8). If Austria had won they would have been promoted. It also means Norway are pretty much guaranteed a World Cup playoff.
So Norway are promoted, and Austria and Slovenia face promotion/relegation playoffs.
Kazakhstan (1) are relegated.
LEAGUE B4
Wales (12) sneaked promotion on the final night with a win at home to Iceland (7), who are in the relegation playoff.
Wales overtook Turkey (11), who lost to a relegated Montenegro (3) team who had been beaten in their first five games.
LEAGUE C1
Sweden (16) have been promoted and Slovakia (13) are in the promotion playoffs. Sweden will hope that 16 points, as the second-best League C winners, will be enough for a World Cup playoff place, if required.
Estonia (4) will remain in League C.
Azerbaijan (1) are automatically relegated.
LEAGUE C2
Romania (18) won the group ahead of Kosovo (12), who go into a playoff.
Cyprus (6) finished third and will stay in Group C, while Lithuania (0) are automatically relegated.
LEAGUE C3
Northern Ireland (11) are automatically promoted with Bulgaria (9) in the promotion playoffs.
Belarus (7) stay in League C, while Luxembourg (3) finish bottom and face a playoff.
LEAGUE C4
North Macedonia (16) won the group with a game to spare and are in an excellent position to get a World Cup playoff, should they require it.
Armenia (7) climbed into second on the final day, earning a promotion playoff, with a 2-1 win in Latvia (4), who finished bottom and their record means they go into the relegation playoffs, rather than the automatic drop.
Faroe Islands (6) stay in League C, with their loss in North Macedonia seeing them be overtaken by Armenia
LEAGUE D1
Gibraltar (6) looked set to be promoted on Friday until a stoppage-time equaliser for San Marino (7) — who sealed promotion with a 3-1 win in Liechtenstein (2) on Monday.
Liechtenstein finished bottom.
LEAGUE D2
Moldova (9) have been promoted.
Malta (7) are in the promotion playoffs.
Andorra (1) finish bottom.
