Expectations for Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program are low going into the 2024 season. Vegas set BYU's win total at 4.5. BYU was picked to finish 13th in the Big 12. SP+ gives BYU just a 21% chance to go to a bowl game. You get the idea. Even some of the most optimistic fans don't have high expectations for BYU in 2024.
On paper, the low expectations makes sense. Even Kalani Sitake acknowledged as much during Big 12 media days. "There are a lot of unknowns with us," Sitake told the scrum of media reporters. "What have we done to earn the benefit of the doubt? It would be hard for me to get mad at all you guys cause you didn't vote for us, you guys don't know a lot of the things that we do. But our players and myself we know what we can get done…it's not about proving you guys wrong. You guys just don't know, but once we get on the field you're going to know."
BYU lost its last five games in 2023, finishing 5-7 and missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2017. It wasn't only the wins and losses that were concerning, either. BYU struggled mightily to run the football and consistently get first downs on offense. On defense, stopping the run was a major struggle after a few key players suffered injuries, and games like the TCU game exposed BYU's secondary.
Then there is the quarterback conundrum. BYU has more questions than answers at the most important position. JUCO transfer Jake Retzlaff, who sure looks like the day one starter at this point, went 0-4 in 2023. He completed 50% of his passes and he threw three touchdowns to three interceptions. His legs boosted the ailing BYU run game, for sure, but his catastrophic mistakes were too much to overcome.
Even though all those things are true, I believe BYU was two plays away from a very different 2023 season – even one that would have been viewed as a very successful inaugural Big 12 campaign. It was those two plays that completely changed the direction of BYU's 2023 season, and in turn, altered the perception of the BYU football program going into 2024.
Today, we're taking a step back to remember those two plays and what it means for the 2024 season.
If there's ever a BYU football article that needed a trigger warning, it's this one. When you read the title of this article, you undoubtedly thought of this play first: the pick-six against Oklahoma.
Back in November, BYU hosted no. 15 Oklahoma. The Cougars were 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility. BYU overcame a few costly turnovers earlier in the game and was beginning to dominant the Sooners on the ground. Midway through the third quarter in a 17-17 game, BYU traveled 58 yards on three runs plays to set up a 1st-and-goal from the Oklahoma 1 yard-line. Oklahoma simply had no answer for big BYU running back Aidan Robbins.
Then the unthinkable happened.
Instead of handing the ball off to the 237 pound Aidan Robbins, Retzlaff pulled the RPO and tried to hit Kody Epps on the quick hitch. Oklahoma defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. stepped in front of the pass at the goal line and returned it 100 yards for the pick-six.
Instead of taking a 24-17 lead, that interception was a 14-point swing and Oklahoma took a 24-17 lead. That play was the difference in BYU's 31-24 loss.
On a rainy day in Stillwater, BYU had the ball in double overtime with a chance to win the game and keep Oklahoma State out of the Big 12 championship. Oklahoma State led 40-34, but a failed two-point conversion opened the door to a BYU win.
On the second play in double overtime, Jake Retzlaff found Isaac Rex over the middle for a short gain. In an effort to gain a few extra yards, Rex kept his feet before being stripped by Oklahoma State's Trey Rucker. Rucker recovered the fumble and ended the game.
Oklahoma State forces a fumble in 2OT and defeats BYU.
The Pokes will head to Dallas to face Texas for the Big 12 Championship! pic.twitter.com/CtzC2Tys0W
Before that fumble, BYU's offense was rolling. Jake Retzlaff led a 44-yard drive in 53 seconds to set up the game-tying field goal. Then BYU needed only five plays to score a touchdown in the first overtime.
Had Isaac Rex's knee hit the ground, BYU was a touchdown and a two-point conversion away from a win.
Of course, no single play can win a game in college football and a few more plays would have needed to go BYU's way. But the difference between two wins and two losses was razor thin. Now how different would the feeling around the program be if those plays went BYU's way and the Cougars finished 7-5? A two-game winning streak would have replaced a five-game losing streak. A bowl game, for a team making the difficult transition into a Power Five conference, would have been the prize. The vibes around the program, at least from the outside looking in, would be very different. Even Vegas – who has no horse in the race except making money – would oddsmakers really set the over/under at 4.5 for a team that went 7-5 in their first Big 12 season? Probably not.
Those plays totally changed the perception of BYU football going into 2024.
For the sake of this article, let's say BYU was a couple plays away from a 7-5 finish, including wins over two of the top teams in the conference in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
What if, instead of going into 2024 with a quarterback that went 0-4, BYU had a quarterback that went 2-2 including two top 25 wins? The perception around Retzlaff would be very different. The mistakes against Iowa State and West Virginia? Those would be chalked up to being his first two FBS starts. That evidence of progress and improvement would probably fuel excitement and expectations going into 2024.
BYU had obvious flaws in 2023 on both sides of the ball. Even then, they were a few plays away from bowl eligibility. You could argue that a even one or two improvements in key areas in 2024 would translate to more wins than 2023 and put BYU in the top half of the conference. Trusting the process and understanding the steps to eventual Big 12 championship contention would be much, much easier.
In reality, those plays didn't go BYU's way. Instead, the Cougars have to deal with the reality of their five-game losing streak. They go into 2024 as a projected bottom feeder in the conference, and based on 2023 results, those expectations are fair.
For Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program, however, those final two games showed on thing: BYU isn't far from being able to compete with the top teams in this conference. Now being more consistent on a weekly basis? There's a lot of work to do there. But beating the Big 12 champion on any given Saturday? That's within reach. Sitake concurred during media days.
"I would be a little nervous if we were just completely overwhelelmed from last year," Sitake said. "I know everyone looks at the record, but we had flashes where we can compete…how can we do it consistently? That's my job as head coach."
There is not a Georgia or Ohio State in the Big 12. Winning the Big 12 championship by 2030 is an attainable goal. While reaching the top of the mountain is possible, BYU must make incremental progress every year if they are going to get there.
The first step to Big 12 contention? Overcome expectations in 2024 and get back to a bowl game. That would be enough incremental progress to set BYU up for the next step in 2025. If 2023 taught us anything, BYU has the roster get back to bowl eligibility, but the margin for error might be razor thin.
CASEY LUNDQUIST
Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.
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