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With only four weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is coming together. The stakes get higher by the week, as one loss can knock many teams out of contention.
As we count down to selection day on Dec. 8, here are three games from each remaining regular season week that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff.
*All rankings are from the College Football Playoff poll
No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss
Week 11 marks the end of the Bulldog’s ranked road test in the SEC. Kirby Smart’s squad dropped the first in Tuscaloosa but bounced back against Texas in Austin. If Georgia leaves Oxford with a win, the Bulldogs will be in a great position to compete for a spot in the SEC championship and beyond. The red and black still have a matchup with Tennessee in mid-November. A loss to the Rebels will make the Tennessee game a likely must-win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
On the other side, Ole Miss is in a must-win scenario. The Rebels have already dropped two SEC games. A third will put them out of SEC championship contention and more than likely outside of playoff contention as well. There are a few teams that could be in contention for the CFP with three losses, but with a home loss to a below .500 Kentucky team, the Rebels are likely not one of those teams.
No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU
Both of these teams are in an Ole Miss situation— two losses and a third will likely knock them out of the CFP. LSU’s situation is slightly better, with only one SEC loss compared to Alabama’s two, but the Tigers will still have a slim shot of making the SEC championship game with two conference losses. Both teams can’t afford a loss, and this game should deliver as it usually has historically.
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana
Indiana is 10-58 against Michigan all-time, with only two wins against the Wolverines since 1968 in 44 games. While Michigan is clearly having a down year, that is still a big historical roadblock to overcome. A win for the Hoosiers allows Curt Cignetti’s squad to afford a loss the following week at Ohio State while remaining in CFP contention.
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia
Assuming both teams enter this game still with one loss, which is the expected scenario, this game could decide who makes the SEC championship. There are five SEC teams with one conference loss. Two of those teams will likely still have only one loss by the end of the regular season. Whoever comes out on top in this one should be in a great position to be playing in Atlanta for the conference title come December. The loser of this one won’t be knocked from CFP contention, but they will certainly be on the bubble with little to no room for error for the remainder of the season.
No. 23 Clemson at No. 18 Pitt
Clemson and Pitt both took a huge hit in Week 10. The Tigers lost by double digits at home to a then-unranked Louisville team, and the Panthers were handed their first loss of the season in embarrassing fashion at SMU. With SMU and Miami both undefeated in ACC play, neither of these teams has a clear path to their conference championship. Whoever loses this matchup will likely be eliminated from playoff contention, and the winner will still need to impress in the two remaining games in order to compete for a bubble spot in the 12-team playoff.
However, keep your eye on Miami and SMU, because if either of those teams loses, it opens the ACC back up for the taking.
No. 5 Texas at Arkansas
Texas should win this game. But Tennessee should have won this game as well. The Razorbacks won’t be in contention, but they certainly would love to play as a villain to the Longhorns. Arkansas barely lost to Texas A&M, beat the Vols and flashed their high-powered offense in Week 9 against Mississippi State.
The Longhorns have proven beatable after an ugly loss to Georgia and a close win against Vanderbilt, and you know Fayetteville will be rocking. But again, they should win. However, if they lose this one, it turns the Texas A&M game at the end of the regular season into a must-win for Steve Sarkisian’s squad.
CFP: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
No. 25 Army at No. 10 Notre Dame
Navy couldn’t get it done. Now it’s Army’s turn. Do the Black Knights have enough magic? It’s hard to tell. But Northern Illinois did. Both teams need a ranked win to stay in contention for the CFP. Army, likely undefeated entering this game, need this win to prove they can compete outside of the American conference that the Black Knights have run through to this point.
Army and No. 12 Boise State are both eyeing the fifth conference championship bid. The Broncos have impressed, with their only loss to the hands of No. 1 Oregon by just a field goal, and clearly, the CFP committee values Boise higher given the 13 spot difference between the two teams. But if Army knocks off the Irish, it instantly holds a much better win than any win on Boise State’s resume.
As for Notre Dame, it cannot afford a loss. They already own arguably the worst loss of the season. Another loss to a non-power conference program is not a good look for a team eyeing a playoff spot, especially when the Irish do not have the opportunity to compete for a conference championship.
No. 8 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
Is Indiana legit? Its matchup with Michigan will give us a small part of that answer. But this game will complete the story. The Hoosiers have never beaten Ohio State — 0-30-1 all time. A win here not only catapults Indiana into the driver’s seat for a CFP spot, but it proves that this is not a one-and-done year for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has a chance to rebrand what people think about Indiana football.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, Ohio State, on paper, should win this game. But the way this college football season has panned out, no win is a guarantee. The Buckeyes struggled against Nebraska in Week 9 — against the same Nebraska team that lost by 49 to the Hoosiers. It’s a dangerous game to get carried away in matchup comparisons, but there could be some meaning in that one.
Ohio State needs this win to have a shot at the Big Ten championship, and so does Indiana. This Week 13 matchup will be must-watch TV.
No. 9 BYU at Arizona State
BYU is the only undefeated team in the Big 12, but the CFP committee was hesitant to rank the Cougars any higher — similar to Indiana. Five one-loss teams sit ahead of those two undefeated teams. However, BYU now holds a big win against SMU, which sits on top of the ACC with Miami.
The Cougars are in complete control of their playoff destiny. If they win out through the regular season, which they are expected to do without a ranked game on their schedule, they will be one conference championship win away from earning an automatic playoff seed. However, if BYU loses, it could plummet down the polls, and an appearance in Arlington for the Big 12 championship is not completely in its control.
BYU is expected to win this matchup, but the Cougars have played in three one-score games this season, and Arizona State has proven competitive. BYU beat Oklahoma State by three. Arizona State beat Oklahoma State by 21. Again, don’t get too caught up in that comparison, but it is something to consider as we look ahead to this matchup.
No. 5 Texas at No. 14 Texas A&M
This is the biggest remaining game for both programs, and it has a high chance of deciding who goes to the SEC championship — just like the Georgia vs. Tennessee game in Week 12. The winner of this game will likely have one conference loss and matchup with the winner of the UGA/UT game in Atlanta. And yes, technically, LSU also only has one conference loss, but TAMU has the head-to-head tiebreaker, and LSU has a ways to go before discussing the Tigers in the SEC championship.
No. 19 Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State
This game could be a decider for who meets BYU in the Big 12 championship, with Colorado squarely in that picture as well. If Iowa State wins, still with only one loss, the Cyclones will likely meet BYU in Arlington. However, if the Wildcats pull it out, they could send Deion Sander’s team to Arlington to compete with the Cougars. Colorado only has one conference loss, and if they win out and Iowa State drops just one more game, the Buffaloes should be competing for the conference title and potentially an auto bid in the CFP.
No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. Tennessee is not, and the Commodores would love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals’ postseason aspirations. Vanderbilt has proven capable with a win over Alabama and a close loss to Texas. If the Vols enter this game with one loss, meaning they beat Georgia, Vanderbilt could knock them out of an opportunity to go to Atlanta for the SEC championship. If Tennessee enters this game with two losses, Vanderbilt could knock the Vols out of the playoffs. It may not play out this way, but if it comes down to this, I would keep my eye on the field goalpost in Nashville.
Jordan Howard is a graduate of the University of Georgia, working as a postgraduate intern for NCAA Digital. He is a Hearst-nominated journalist and his print work has appeared in The Marietta Daily Journal, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and UGA Rivals. Howard enjoys breaking down the latest trends and numbers, specializing in football, basketball, baseball and lacrosse.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
