BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana football is a sensation! First FOX Big Noon Kickoff came to Bloomington. This week it’s ESPN College GameDay. The Hoosiers are unbeaten and at the top of the Big Ten. The ranking keeps getting higher and College Football Playoff possibilities can be realistically entertained.
We did a scoreboard-watching guide two weeks ago when Indiana was idle, and it’s time to do it again so you know what games to keep an eye on that can influence Indiana’s fate.
There’s the Big Ten chase, first and foremost. Six teams have one loss or fewer in the Big Ten standings. It would be unlikely for a two-loss conference team to make it to the Big Ten championship game, so we’ll only consider one-loss or fewer teams for now.
There’s Indiana place in the rankings pecking order, currently 13th. To streamline matters, we’ll focus on the five teams ahead of Indiana for this week and a couple of games from teams behind them that might matter.
It’s probably too early to parse the College Football Playoff chase separately. Until the CFP rankings come out for the first time on Nov. 5, we’ll keep our powder dry on that for now.
Finally, there’s strength of schedule. Fans don’t like to hear it, but Indiana’s strength of schedule is problematic. Indiana’s schedule is ranked 109th by ESPN – the worst of any Power Four school and one of just four Power Four schools below 100. Duke, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are the others.
Poor schedules are not looked at kindly by the College Football Playoff committee so any help Indiana can get from its beaten foes would be helpful. So games played by Indiana’s opponents need to be accounted for.
– Nebraska (5-2, 2-2) at No. 4 Ohio State (5-1, 2-1), Noon Saturday, FOX: Ohio State lost its margin for error in the Big Ten race when it lost at Oregon on Oct. 12. A win over the Cornhuskers – who put on a poor display in Bloomington last week – is vital.
Ohio State has the hardest route to the Big Ten title game as it still has to play at Penn State, host Indiana and host Michigan in their eternally unpredictable rivalry game. However, if the Buckeyes manage to pull it off, they would be at the top of the list in terms of one-loss teams to potentially play in Indianapolis in December.
– No. 20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1) at No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS: Bret Bielema is working his magic in Champaign as the Fighting Illini rather easily set Michigan aside in a 21-7 victory last week. Illinois played tough in a road loss at Penn State on Oct. 5. Oregon’s route to a Big Ten title is not paved with cupcakes. This game is tricky and so are trips to Michigan and Wisconsin, along with a home rivalry game against Washington to finish the season, but the Ducks have passed every test they’ve faced so far.
– No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC: The Nittany Lions passed a road test two weeks ago when they rallied to beat Southern California 33-30 in overtime.
Wisconsin kept itself in the Big Ten hunt with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, but when the Badgers have stepped up in competition, they’ve tripped over themselves. Witness a 42-10 home loss to Alabama and a 38-21 loss at USC.
It’s a trap game for Penn State. Their season-defining game comes a week later when they host Ohio State. That will determine the course of their season, but to face Ohio State as an unbeaten, they have business to attend to in Madison first.
– No. 17 Boise State (5-1) at UNLV (6-1), 10:30 p.m. Friday, CBS Sports Network: The Broncos are four spots behind the Hoosiers, but this is a battle of the best teams in the West not in the Big Ten Conference. Boise State has been impressive. It’s only loss was a three-point defeat at No. 1 Oregon – and that was only because the Broncos gave up two return touchdowns. Boise State has topped 45 points in all but one of its other contests.
UNLV is good too with its only setback being a three-point home loss to Syracuse. Indiana fans should be rooting for the Runnin’ Rebels because a Boise State win will keep them neck-and-neck with the Hoosiers.
– No. 12 Notre Dame (6-1) vs. No. 24 Navy (6-0), Noon Saturday, ABC: The Midshipmen have been a great story in 2024, and they own a road win at Memphis. Notre Dame’s blip against Northern Illinois in Week 2 aside, they’ve won all but one of the rest of their games by 10 or more points. The Fighting Irish are directly in front of the Hoosiers, so Indiana fans will likely be in Navy’s corner.
– No. 11 BYU (7-0) at UCF (3-4), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN: The Big 12 race is as crazy as the Big Ten one is, though there’s more clarity at the top with BYU and Iowa State tied for the lead. An argument could be made that the Cougars deserve to be higher in the poll. They won at No. 22 SMU, hammered No. 16 Kansas State by 29 at home, and survived and advanced in other contests. Not that Indiana fans want to hear that. They’ll be rooting for the Knights, who nearly did Indiana a favor a week ago when they just missed an upset win at Iowa State.
– No. 21 Missouri (6-1) at No. 15 Alabama (5-2), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: We include this game only because of the fact that a win for the Crimson Tide could bump them ahead of the Hoosiers. Why? SEC teams seem to get the benefit of the doubt from pollsters. That likely goes double for bluebloods like Alabama.
– No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: From Indiana’s perspective, this is a damned if you, damned if you don’t scenario in a game that will determine the leader in the SEC. If Texas A&M wins, they could leapfrog the Hoosiers depending on how each game plays out. If LSU wins on the road, Indiana isn’t going to catch them. Even if LSU loses, Indiana might not catch them based on losing at a tough road venue like Kyle Field.
– Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State, 8 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2: The battle for the Sunflower State is one most often focused on in basketball, but it has a football impact this weekend. The Jayhawks were ranked in the AP preseason poll, but sunk like a rock since. A home victory for the Wildcats won’t likely lift them over Indiana in the poll if the Hoosiers win, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
– Idle: No. 9 Clemson, No. 10 Iowa State.
– Sam Houston 10, Florida International 7: Conference USA is playing mid-week games and Florida International isn’t helping Indiana’s strength of schedule situation with more losses. In this case, Sam Houston’s Christian Pavon made a 20-yard field goal with 1:57 left to help the Bearkats get the victory. FIU is 2-6 this season.
– Charlotte at Memphis, Noon Saturday, ESPNU: The 49ers have done better than FIU has. Charlotte is 3-4 and got to .500 before a 51-17 loss at Navy last week. Memphis is 6-1, however, so another Charlotte win would be an upset. It would be one that would help Indiana, but don’t count on it.
– Maryland at Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. Saturday, FS1: Maryland’s come-from-behind win over USC helped Indiana’s cause last week. Maryland (4-3, 1-3) is capable of winning at Minnesota as the Terrapins did win at Virginia earlier this season. Minnesota has won two in a row, including a home win over then-No. 11 USC and a road win at UCLA. Indiana fans should be with the Terps on this one.
– Northwestern (3-4) at Iowa (4-3), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Big Ten Network: Northwestern beat Maryland and lost to Wisconsin since the Hoosiers beat them earlier this month. Winning at Iowa will be a tall order as Northwestern’s so-so offense meets a very good defense, but Hoosiers fans should hope the ‘Cats can pull it off.
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