Cricket
We look at what India, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh need to reach T20 World Cup semi-finals – watch India vs Australia live on Sky Sports from 3pm on Monday (3.30pm first ball), before Afghanistan take on Bangladesh on the same channel from 1am Tuesday (1.30am first ball)
Sunday 23 June 2024 20:13, UK
Afghanistan’s shock win over Australia at the T20 World Cup means all four sides in Super 8s Group 1 can still qualify for the semi-finals.
India are in pole position after winning their first two second-round matches by a handsome margin, with Bangladesh bang up against it after two heavy defeats.
Here are the permutations ahead of the final round of games, with India taking on Australia on Monday (3.30pm UK) before Afghanistan meet Bangladesh on Tuesday (1.30am UK).
As ever, net run-rate could prove crucial…
This metric is used to separate teams on the same number of points during a league format, in the way that goal difference does in football.
A side’s net run-rate in a tournament is the average runs scored by them in an over in each game minus the average runs scored against them.
If a team is bowled out, their net run-rate is worked out by dividing the runs by the maximum overs they could have batted, which in the case of this tournament is obviously 20 overs.
Rohit Sharma’s side, who beat Afghanistan and Bangladesh by 47 and 50 runs respectively, will definitely advance to the semi-finals if they beat Australia or the game is rained off.
They will also go through if they lose and then Bangladesh beat Afghanistan or if that match is abandoned.
Should they lose to Australia and Afghanistan then beat Bangladesh – results that would leave India, Australia and Afghanistan on four points apiece – India’s strong net run-rate, which currently stands at +2.425, would still leave them in good stead.
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For them to be eliminated on net run-rate, India would have to lose to Australia by 41 runs and for Afghanistan to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Australia’s net-run rate (+0.223) is better than Afghanistan’s (-0.65) at the moment, which could give the 2021 champions the edge in the event that those sides both win or both lose.
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To chuck a scenario out there, if Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would need to defeat Bangladesh by 36 runs to leapfrog Australia on net run-rate.
If Afghanistan lose by just one run, Australia would need to have lost by 31 runs for their net run-rate to slip below Afghanistan’s.
If Australia win and Afghanistan lose, Australia are through. If Afghanistan win and Australia lose, Afghanistan are through. No results in both games and Australia advance on NRR.
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With their net run-rate a poor -2.489, Bangladesh are struggling to make the semi-finals. To do so, they would need a heavy win over Afghanistan and a massive defeat for Australia vs India.
To go ahead of Afghanistan on NRR, they would need to beat their opponents by 31 runs, but that would only be good enough for second place if Australia lost to India by 55 runs.
Watch India vs Australia live on Sky Sports Cricket from 3pm on Monday (3.30pm first ball) and then Afghanistan vs Bangladesh from 1am on Tuesday (1.30am first ball) on the same channel.
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