Welcome to Week 14, FootClan!
With six teams on bye, your path to the fantasy playoffs may rely on the hands of someone you never imagined. Have no fear, however, as today we’ll identify three QBs (ranked outside the Ballers’ top 12) with QB1 upside, who just may help you get that bye or divisional matchup next week.
We now have 39 QB1 performances through Week 13 of the 2024 season, thanks to Bryce Young and Mac Jones‘ inspiring performances last week. The question is: Do you think we will go over or under the 46 QB1 performances in 2023?
Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, Will Levis, Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, Mac Jones
Be sure to check the Week 14 QB rankings before kickoff and as a reminder—the Ultimate DFS Pass is now 50% off, which is something we can all be thankful for! Now, let’s get down to business.
Imagine the fate of your entire season being held in the greasy, mayo-filled hands of Will Levis.
Mayo delicious Hellmann’s dip be served hot while your quarterback plays it cool.@will_levis pic.twitter.com/hYMJE6BGLP
— Hellmann’s Mayonnaise (@Hellmanns) November 21, 2024
Well, my friend, that’s unfortunately where we are. Will Levis has delivered just one QB1 performance this season, but we’ve been targeting the Jaguars all season long, and there’s no reason to stop now.
Jacksonville ranks dead last in PPG to opposing fantasy QBs and should struggle once again in a divisional matchup against the Titans. Over the past four weeks, the Jaguars rank 31st in QB pressure rate (26.5%), 27th in explosive plays allowed (17.9%), and last in EPA allowed per play (.331).
Levis’s career as a starter may come to an end sooner than later, but we have no doubts about his arm strength or big play ability, and he has averaged a healthy 17.3 PPG over the past four weeks since returning from his shoulder injury. Calvin Ridley always has the ability to take over a game, but it’s been the late connection and emergence of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine that’s keeping us on edge, as he looks to secure himself a long-term contract with touchdowns in seven of his last eight games.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine the last two months pic.twitter.com/IZrqgDJrPp
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 1, 2024
The Jaguars’ secondary is already nothing to be concerned about, but the status of starting CB Tyson Campbell (thigh) should be monitored into the weekend. He returned to a limited practice on Thursday but was a DNP on Wednesday due to a thigh injury suffered in Week 13’s loss to the Texans. If he were to miss the game, this theoretically should only help Levis’s chances of succeeding.
The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites with a team-implied total of 21.5 (16th). They should have no trouble moving the ball against a Jaguars defense that ranks bottom-six in PPG against QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs, and if they do, it all but ensures the team will be searching for the Levis replacement next offseason.
Godspeed, Will. Please don’t make me look like a fool.
I’m a Will Levis 8eliever pic.twitter.com/BMWcsuK71l
— 12thTITAN (@TwelthTitan) December 1, 2024
Since the seemingly obvious firing of OC Shane Waldron, everything about Caleb Williams‘ play has improved.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was asked about former OC Shane Waldron 💀
(Waldron is now the OC for Chicago)pic.twitter.com/RsbtOuYJOw
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) February 7, 2024
From Weeks 11-13, he is averaging 275.7 passing yards with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio, and his rushing average has increased from 26.2 to 47.3 yards/game. Interim OC Thomas Brown has done a fantastic job simplifying and reinventing the offense, and the results have been on display both in real life and in fantasy, where he ranks QB6 in PPG over the past three weeks. They could certainly use a win, but I for one am happy to see the rookie have to face some early adversity. The greats often do.
It goes against my entire being to actually target the 49ers’ defense, but this team always seems to be battling high-profile injuries, and this year has been arguably the worst. San Fransisco was missing six defensive starters in Week 13, but most importantly, Nick Bosa is yet to resume practicing due to an oblique injury suffered in Week 11. Reinforcements may be on the way with CB Deommodore Lenoir (knee) and LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles, 2023) both returning to practice, but this defense is a different unit without Bosa, ranking 30th in EPA allowed per play (.266) since his departure.
49ers practice sights and sounds:
Talanoa Hufanga returns to open IR evaluation
Dre Greenlaw in Week 2 or IR window
Fred Warner talked 1v1 with Kyle Shanahan very casually for about 10 minutes — staying away from pre-practice huddle and yielding hype man role to Brock Purdy pic.twitter.com/gA8Nd0Gd8V
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) December 4, 2024
While the entire city of Chicago is rejoicing over the (deserved) firing of HC Matt Eberflus, there is still reason for concern about Caleb’s performance this week. An awful lot has been put on the shoulders of Thomas Brown recently, who has seen his role increase from passing game coordinator to interim offensive coordinator to interim head coach in just the past month. That rise takes years for most people, and could/should make for a difficult transitional stage, especially considering other coaches need to fill those positions as well. With that said, we’ve been told Brown will remain the team’s playcaller this week, which is the most important news for Caleb and his fantasy projection.
The Bears are currently 3.5-point underdogs with a team-implied total of 20.5 (18th). signifying the perfect game script for Chicago’s pass-catchers. Keep an eye out for the status of Bosa, but either way, I’m perfectly comfortable chasing Caleb’s fantasy hot streak.
Caleb Williams in the last 3 games against defenses that rank 1st, 2nd, and 7th in EPA/play allowed:
-827 passing yards
-5 TD
-0 INT
-143 rushing yards
He has a chance to really end this season on a strong note in the last 5 games. Things are really clicking pic.twitter.com/4Mq5pDBoYo
— DaWindyCity Productions (@dwcprodz) December 3, 2024
Now, there are a lot of questionable options to choose from for our third QB, but you’re likely starting those guys no matter what: Jameis Winston (14) at Pittsburgh, Geno Smith (17) at Arizona, and Matthew Stafford (18) at Buffalo all stick out.
For that reason, I wanted to dive a little deeper and highlight someone extremely uncomfortable, but who has been quietly serviceable the past three weeks: Cooper Rush.
It’s that time of year in 2QB leagues…
I’m struggling to decide on starting Cooper Rush or Mac Jones as my QB2. pic.twitter.com/AotCEIVkKP
— Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF) December 5, 2024
Similar to our Levis conversation above, Rush will be a matchup and volume-based play this week against Cincinnati. Over the past three weeks, he’s averaging 41 attempts, 265.3 passing yards, has a 4:1 TD:INT ratio, and delivered a QB1 performance in Week 12. As 5.5-point underdogs, we can almost certainly expect that volume to continue against this star-studded Cincinnati offense.
The 2024 Bengals have become the 2023 Lions, ranking near the bottom in almost every defensive category, and near the top in every offensive category. They are tied for fifth offensively (27.9 PPG) and rank 31st defensively (28.3 PPG), which brings fantasy gold to all opposing QBs—and even more specifically, they rank 29th in PPG to opposing QBs, which is what brings us here today.
The Most Advantageous NFL Week 14 Fantasy Matchups for QB’s
(PASSING TDS)
1: Cooper Rush vs Cin
2: Mac Jones vs Ten
3: Patrick Mahomes vs LAC
4: Brock Purdy vs Chi
5: Baker Mayfield vs LV
6: Sam Darnold vs ATL
7: Justin Herbert vs KC
8: Josh Allen vs LAR
9: Caleb Williams vs… pic.twitter.com/atT95hEvxB
— Big Draft Energy (@BigDraftersHQ) December 3, 2024
This take is tied heavily to the status of the Cowboys’ receiving core, which looks promising as of Friday morning. WR Brandin Cooks scored a touchdown in his first game back from injury, WR CeeDee Lamb missed practice on Thursday but claims he will be “fine” by Monday, and there has been positive momentum on the return of TE Jake Ferguson, who has missed the past two games with a concussion. A healthy group of skill players should give Rush ample opportunity to succeed, as the Cowboys project to be playing catch-up early and often.
It’ll be difficult to pull the trigger on Rush, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Given the expected game script, a team-implied total of 22 (15th), and an ideal matchup against the Bengals, there is certainly a world where Cooper Rush “garbage times” his way into low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers.
As McDonald’s taught us 90s kids: “Hey, it could happen.”
WELCOME BACK BRANDIN COOKS pic.twitter.com/jI1gIqnbsH
— PFF (@PFF) November 28, 2024
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