Not every team is still alive in the fantasy football playoffs. For the teams that have survived and advanced, each roster decision is important enough to make or break a run to the championship.
It’s arguable that of all of those important decisions, none is more important than that of which wide receivers to start.
With most fantasy football leagues featuring at least two wide receiver starting spots and a flex option, there are extra opportunities for a single wideout to boost a fantasy team’s chances of success. At the same time, there are extra opportunities for a player to tank those chances with a down week.
At the same time, injuries continue to stack up at the wide receiver position – Miami Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle and the Indianapolis Colts‘ Alec Pierce missed time this week. That can make it even harder to decide which wideouts to start in Week 16, even with no more bye weeks ahead.
Here are which wide receivers to start and which to avoid in Week 16:
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Nabers has made it clear over the last few weeks that he’s the type of receiver where it doesn’t matter which quarterback is playing, he’s going to get the ball.
Since the beginning of November, the Giants have had four different quarterbacks play in a game: Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock and Tim Boyle. Nabers has yet to have a game with fewer than nine targets and 50 receiving yards in that span.
This week, Nabers and the Giants play a Falcons defense that ranks fifth-worst in dropback EPA allowed this season and third-worst in the same category over the last five weeks. Whether DeVito is back after suffering a concussion in Week 15 or Boyle is back under center, Nabers is going to get the ball. He’s a safe option that holds a WR3 floor with a WR1 ceiling.
Shakir has scored a touchdown in two straight games and did not see a notable dip in targets when fellow receiver Keon Coleman returned from his wrist injury in Week 15. In a Buffalo wide receivers room that still doesn’t seem to have a clear No. 1 receiver, the third-year wideout from Boise State has been its most consistent.
Shakir has been healthy for all but one game this year and – perhaps as a result – leads the Bills in targets, receptions and yards by a wide margin. In Week 16, he and Buffalo host the Patriots, a team with some of the worst defensive metrics against opponents’ dropbacks in the NFL.
Given the hot streak quarterback Josh Allen is on, Sunday could be a big day for Shakir.
Thomas is legit. The rookie has proven in recent weeks that he has a rapport with Jaguars backup quarterback Mac Jones. He’s had at least 10 targets in every game since Trevor Lawrence’s injury and put up 105 yards and two touchdowns on 10 catches (14 targets) against the New York Jets this past week.
Jones will be back starting under center for Jacksonville with Lawrence still on IR, so Thomas should see plenty more targets and be able to make the most of them against a lackluster Raiders defense missing its best pass-rusher.
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There’s a chance Waddle doesn’t play this week because of a knee injury. Obviously, if Waddle is not playing, don’t start him in fantasy football.
However, even if Waddle is able to return for Week 16’s clash with the 49ers, he should remain on the fantasy bench. He’ll be working his way back from an injury against San Francisco, a team with a passing defense that has looked better since cornerback Charvarius Ward’s return and one that has shut down wide receivers’ fantasy production all year.
Worthy is entering his Week 16 game potentially without starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball. It’s also a game against a passing defense with some of the best defensive metrics this year – second-fewest EPA per dropback and lowest success rate on dropbacks allowed – and one that just shut down the Dolphins’ speedy passing offense last week.
Worthy also has tallied fewer than 55 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. His only touchdown in that stretch was a rushing score last week against the Browns.
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This is not a typo. McConkey, who has been a near-mainstay in the “start ’em” section of this weekly analysis, may be in line for a down week against the Broncos. A down week that fantasy football managers still alive in the playoffs cannot afford.
In Week 15, McConkey came back after a knee injury that caused him to miss one game. In his return against the Buccaneers, he had his fewest yardage total since Week 10’s outing against the Titans, though he did score a touchdown.
The rookie wideout and the Chargers face a bigger challenge in Week 16: the passing defense with the fewest EPA per dropback and second-lowest success rate on dropbacks allowed this season. Denver is coming off of a game in which it held the Colts’ leading receiver, Michael Pittman, to just 58 yards on six catches.
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