On Saturday, no. 14 BYU football is set to host the Arizona Wildcats for the first time as Big 12 peers. At this point in the season, both teams are still in the running for the Big 12 conference championship. SP+, the predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, cemented its prediction for BYU-Arizona.
SP+ gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 30-26 in favor of the Cougars. SP+ is less optimistic about the Cougars' chances than ESPN FPI – FPI gives BYU a 68% chance to beat Arizona.
The advanced metrics aren't completely sold on this BYU football team yet. The Cougars haven't moved the ball consistently enough on offense to impress the algorithms. One thing the advanced metrics can't factor in, however, are injuries. BYU's rushing attack, or lack thereof, is the primary reason why advanced metrics and still on the fence about BYU.
Those that have followed BYU closely this year will know that BYU has been forced to play six running backs due to injuries this season. In fact, BYU has started five different running backs in five games this season. If BYU starts to run the ball with more consistency, they will quickly rise up both the SP+ and the FPI rankings.
Oddsmakers have been betting on BYU to beat Arizona and cover the spread this week. Before Arizona lost to Texas Tech last week, the Wildcats were favored by approximately 2.5 points over BYU. After the loss, BYU was favored by 2.5 points on Sunday. As of late Monday night, the line has moved three points already. The Cougars are favored by 5.5 points according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.
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