Australia have steadied the ship since Tony Popovic’s arrival but cannot keep relying on other results going their way in 2026 World Cup qualification
Sometimes events can transpire at such a rapid rate it can almost feel like one’s ability to perceive the passage of time has been distorted; a sense of dyschronia brought about by everything, everywhere, all at once. Just observe the past few months in the world of the Socceroos.
It feels like an age, but it has been just 62 days since Graham Arnold stood down as coach, burnt out by his six years in the role and feeling his message had stopped resonating. Three days later, Tony Popovic was announced as a replacement, his availability proving timely as Football Australia scrambled to salvage a campaign that was already threatening to go off the rails.
There were always going to be questions about how much of a difference, philosophically, Popovic would bring to the role in comparison with Arnold – both are known for a more defensive, conservative mindset. But for now, it’s still impossible to answer them. The Socceroos have steadied the ship since the arrival of the 51-year-old coach, winning once, drawing three times and somehow maintaining hold of second place in Group C of Asian qualifying and the automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup that comes with it.
Given the circumstances, Popovic’s opening four games haven’t presented what could in good faith be considered a representative sample for figuring out what his side will look like. There has been a foundation, and a 3-5-2-1-shaped framework looks to have been put in place. But there remains uncertainty about what the actual end product will look like and over the who, hows and whys of the players he’ll want to operate it.
Popovic, bear in mind, had all of a week to select his squad for a window that commenced 20 days after he was appointed in September, one which ended with a 3-1 win over China, a 1-1 draw with Japan and, surprisingly, a move up to second in Group C. Following that, he effectively had just a fortnight to pick his players for this round of qualifiers which, by the skin of the their teeth, the Socceroos have emerged from undefeated again, drawing 0-0 with Saudi Arabia last week and 2-2 with Bahrain on Wednesday morning Australian time.
That latter game in Riffa, for its part, may very well have been an exercise in time dilation itself. With results elsewhere opening the door for clear separation from the chasing pack, the clock seemingly slowed to a crawl for the 74 minutes following Kusini Yengi’s opener, stood still when Mahdi Abduljabbar fired Bahrain in front with two goals in two minutes, and tortuously accelerated as Australia searched for an equaliser. That critical second goal dramatically arrived six minutes into injury time through Yengi.
Now, however, comes a chance to exhale, for both Popovic and Socceroos fans. With the next international window scheduled for March, it will be 119 days until we next see the Socceroos take the field, facing Indonesia at home before jetting off to face China. Wins in those games are a must if Australia want to maintain their hold on second place, especially with the daunting challenge of Japan at home and Saudi Arabia away awaiting in the final set of group fixtures in June.
Must-win declarations were also made before this month’s draws with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, only for the capricious nature of the group to make a mockery of them once again; Indonesia’s 2-0 triumph over Saudi Arabia in Jakarta was the latest surprise result to keep the Socceroos just ahead of the trailing pack. At some stage, however, they are proclamations that will turn from hyperbole to reality and with just four games remaining, the margin for error that will come with running afoul of them is becoming razor thin. Though second, Australia are also just a point clear of a chasing pack of four – with the bottom two sides in the group come June to be eliminated from qualification completely.
Sign up to Football Daily
Kick off your evenings with the Guardian’s take on the world of football
after newsletter promotion
As Popovic admitted in his post-Bahrain press conference, it would have been much better to be heading into this break with a win against Saudi Arabia or Bahrain (or both) in the bag. And just like the meeting with Saudi Arabia last week, the clash with Bahrain was a game that the Socceroos will leave rightfully believing they should have won; a lack of a killer instinct in front of goal once again haunted them.
But with four months to plan, four months to observe his playing stocks, and four months for his players to implement his “elite” standards, Popovic should be able to bring something much more closely resembling his true vision for the Socceroos into next March. The hope will be that it’s a vision that can also spy six crucial points.
