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Discussing whether the ‘Hoos can grab at least two more Ws amidst a brutal second half schedule.
A well-established goal for pretty much anybody invested in the Virginia Cavaliers football program is bowl eligibility. Now at 4-2 through six games, with clearly the much more difficult half of the schedule ahead, how do you feel about the prospects of getting there? Which upcoming games stand out in particular?
I went into the season skeptical about their chances of becoming bowl eligible, predicting them to come up short at 5-7. Now with Virginia having won four of their first six games, and more importantly, having looked so much cleaner of a product on the field, I feel a lot better.
Looking ahead, UNC is a bad team and one that is can realistically be considered must-win at home. Pitt and SMU are decent but not unbeatable. If we have to assume road games at Clemson and Notre Dame are automatic losses, it’s fair to then say 1-1 against Pitt/SMU is realistic. That gets UVA to six before Tech.
Tony Elliott’s program is night and day from his first two seasons simply based on the eye test; I don’t see an utter collapse happening down the stretch. I think the Cavaliers reach six wins one way or another.
I feel good about the possibility of getting to six wins. Beating Louisville for win number five would have been the perfect situation and far surpassed preseason expectations. However, 4-2 is still a solid spot to be in, even with a difficult slate ahead. It won’t be easy, but if the ‘Hoos can get healthy – especially at the receiver position – I’ll feel even more encouraged.
The two remaining home games against UNC and SMU will be crucial. As Dan mentioned, at least one of those games must go UVA’s way, and maybe even both. Call me crazy, but after last year’s upset at UNC and seeing how scrappy this team has been, I’m not counting them out in any of the remaining games.
This weekend’s road game against Clemson will arguably be the toughest to win, but UNC has struggled, Notre Dame is dealing with injuries, SMU has two tough games before heading to Charlottesville, and maybe things get weird in Blacksburg.
I’m all in on the ‘Hoos finding a way to win two of these last six, even if it requires stealing one on the road.
I’ll be the overly optimistic one in the group and say that not only do I think Virginia gets to six wins, I think there’s potentially a seventh win out there too.
The key: getting to 5-3. I’m going to table the Clemson game for now. North Carolina at home is the must-have win; this team doesn’t go bowling if that game isn’t won. But, if Tony Elliott can get this group within one, four-quarter performance of a bowl game, I think the leaders (Anthony Colandrea, Malachi Fields, Jonas Sanker, and Kam Robinson, among others) pull them through.
I’ve been referencing the 2017 season a lot over the last few weeks because, after a 5-1 start that year, it wasn’t a friendly second half schedule. In the bowl-clinching win against Georgia Tech, Kurt Benkert threw for 260 and three touchdowns, Joe Reed returned a kickoff for a touchdown, Quin Blanding registered a pick, and Jordan Mack forced a fumble in the end zone for a safety.
It will take a performance like that from UVA’s stars to get them to six wins this year. If that happens on or before November 23rd, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team get to seven and maybe have the opportunity to travel south for the holidays.
Virginia has given some inspiring and even surprising plays and wins this season, especially considering low expectations. I have continued to give the team the benefit of the doubt, and I do now as well.
I’ve said it from the preseason, talent isn’t the issue. It’s been some questionable coaching calls and some developmental delays as a team. But we have enough talent to win. A few games (or even a few halves! As we saw against BC…) of tight plays where the ‘Hoos are dotting their I’s and crossing our T’s will get UVA wins. But that scraping by won’t work for every remaining matchup.
That’s the reality of the state of this program. Virginia needs to get the wins that we know they can get; meaning, don’t lose games because of self-inflicted mistakes. UVA should only (and can only afford) lose to better playing teams. It sounds obvious, but Virginia is often their own enemy on the field with penalties and red zone chokes.
Clemson would be an inspiring win, but unlikely. UNC, after what we saw last year, may be a scrappy game, and with decent odds that would be another statement win on the season. SMU could be the same.
This team has it in them. They’ve tasted victory this season 4 times already, which is a motivator in itself. They want to come out as the underdog on top. For that reason, they have a unique momentum heading into the second leg of the season that may make them more dangerous than they’re made out to be.
Virginia’s second half of the season is undoubtedly the more difficult half.
Here is the deal: 4-2 (2-1, ACC) is a solid start, considering where most people had them at the beginning of the season. There are two games on the schedule where Virginia will be a significant underdog (Notre Dame and Clemson). Virginia will be the favorite (North Carolina) or a one-possession underdog for the other four games. I hope I don’t need to tell our audience that college football is a crazy sport and being a one-possession underdog does not guarantee a loss.
This Virginia football team is clearly better than people thought at the beginning of the year. If they can somehow get healthy and stay healthy for the back half of this season, I think we will love the way the record looks at the end of the regular season. I still feel optimistic about my preseason prediction of 7-5. 6-6 is more realistic, but when have I ever been realistic about my expectations for this team?
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