There was a path for the College Football Playoff selection committee to have a stress-free Saturday of watching conference championship games. As they followed along with the action from noon ET until past midnight at the Gaylord Hotel in Grapevine, Texas, there was probably a (not insignificant) portion in the back of every member’s mind rooting for all the favorites, too.
Alas, this is college football where normalcy is to expect the unexpected. This weekend, that means Dawgs and underdogs throwing a wrench into what could have been a clean bracket scenario.
Though this committee won’t have anywhere near the level of controversy to sort through compared to last season, it will have a difficult task. Who’s in and who’s out of the 12-team playoff is just one concern as there are significant seeding implications to sort out, too.
Oh, and instead of upsetting one fan base, you might well upset entire conferences who feel slighted. Such is the nature of the job, no pressure.
After nine conference title games this weekend, here are Sports Illustrated’s projected brackets ahead of Selection Sunday.
Pat Forde
Bryan Fischer
1. Oregon
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
2. Georgia
3. Arizona State
3. Boise State
4. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Notre Dame
5. Texas
6. Penn State
6. Penn State
7. Texas
7. Notre Dame
8. Ohio State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
10. Indiana
11. Clemson
11. SMU
12. SMU
12. Clemson
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid)
No. 3 Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champion, automatic bid)
No. 12 SMU (at-large) at No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)
No. 11 Clemson (ACC champion, automatic bid) at No. 6 Penn State (at-large)
No. 10 Indiana (at-large) at No. 7 Texas (at-large)
No. 9 Tennessee (at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (at-large)
Does the ACC indeed get two bids and push Alabama out of the bracket? It seems impossible to justify Bama over SMU, but there will be some held breath in Dallas waiting to see for sure.
How does the committee rank Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee? A good case can be made for putting the Volunteers ahead of the Longhorns, but dropping Texas from No. 2 all the way out of a home field first-round game would be pretty drastic after an overtime SEC championship game loss.
An Ohio State–Indiana rematch in Columbus could be in the mix, but it seems like a game the committee will try hard to avoid. We just saw that game on Nov. 23, and it wasn’t overly compelling.
The ACC results should end the rhetorical crossfire between the Big 12 and Mountain West about which champion deserves a first-round bye—because they should both get them now, given the ACC result.
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid): Rose Bowl quarterfinal
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid): Sugar Bowl quarterfinal
No. 3 Boise State (Mountain West champion, automatic bid): Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal
No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champion, automatic bid): Peach Bowl quarterfinal
No. 12 Clemson (ACC champion, automatic bid) at No. 5 Texas (at-large)
No. 11 SMU (at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (at-large)
No. 10 Indiana (at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (at-large)
No. 9 Tennessee (at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (at-large)
First team out: Alabama Crimson Tide
Second team out: Miami Hurricanes
Bryan Fischer is a staff writer at Sports Illustrated covering college sports. He joined the SI staff in 2024 after spending nearly two decades at outlets such as FOX Sports, NBC Sports and CBS Sports. A member of the Football Writers Association of America's All-America Selection Committee and a Heisman Trophy voter, Fischer has won awards for investigative journalism from the Associated Press Sports Editors and FWAA.
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Pat Forde is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated who covers college football and college basketball as well as the Olympics and horse racing. He cohosts the College Football Enquirer podcast and is a football analyst on the Big Ten Network. He previously worked for Yahoo Sports, ESPN and The (Louisville) Courier-Journal. Forde has won 28 Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest awards, has been published three times in the Best American Sports Writing book series, and was nominated for the 1990 Pulitzer Prize. A past president of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association and member of the Football Writers Association of America, he lives in Louisville with his wife. They have three children, all of whom were collegiate swimmers.
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