2WD5CM9 Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes gets pumped up prior to an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Miami Dolphins Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
• C.J. Stroud cracks the top 10: His yards, touchdowns and big-time throw numbers all placed in the top half of the league, and he had some clutch moments and drives that were well beyond his years.
• Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence are on the cusp of elite: From Week 8 on, Love earned an elite 90.4 passing grade with 27 big-time throws and just 10 turnover-worthy plays. Meanwhile, Lawrence ranked in the top five in big-time throws (33) but struggled with turnover-worthy plays.
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Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes
Everybody loves player rankings, and the NFL offseason is the perfect time to break them out.
We are taking a look forward to the 2024 season and ranking all 32 projected starting quarterbacks heading into the year. Click here to read about the top 32 wide receivers.
2023 wasn’t Mahomes best year by the numbers, but after back-to-back Super Bowls with one of his least talented supporting casts, we’re not going to even entertain overthinking this one.
Three quarterbacks have won MVP since 2018: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson — each twice. In a new offense in 2023, Jackson earned the highest single-season passing grade of his career (83.0). He also passed for a career-high 4,102 yards with a career-best 25 big-time throws.
All that happened while he kept his turnover-worthy play rate below 3.0% and added unmatched rushing ability. Jackson is in a tier with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but if we’re ranking these guys, I wouldn’t be giving Jackson the respect he has earned if I didn’t put him at No. 2 as the reigning MVP.
Burrow, unfortunately, had an injury-riddled 2023, starting with a calf strain that it appeared he was rushed back from to start the season. He then suffered a torn ligament in his wrist on his throwing hand that ended his season. But I won’t let an injury-affected season take away from what we have seen from Burrow when he is fully healthy: an ice-in-his-veins decision-maker with assassin-like accuracy and MVP-caliber play.
Allen led the NFL in big-time throws last season (playoffs included), with 41. Despite pushing the ball downfield as much as he did, he still kept his turnover-worthy play rate at 2.9% — a career best. He also added the second-most first-down rushes (66) and most rushing touchdowns (18) of any quarterback.
Allen is a unicorn of athletic gifts for the position with size, speed and strength. Yes, he’ll make some mistakes, but his ceiling is as high as it gets for the position, and he shows it weekly.
2023 wasn’t Herbert’s best season from an efficiency standpoint — plus he missed the final four games due to injury — but he did what many of us have been asking for the last few years: push the ball more. He posted a 5.0% big-time throw rate, his highest since his rookie year, and recorded an average target depth of more than 8.0 yards downfield for the first time in his career.
Despite some criticisms that he can’t singlehandedly will his team to postseason success (which is silly), Herbert remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. His 68.9 passing grade under pressure last season ranked third, behind Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson.
It’s a shame that Prescott’s final game of the 2023 season, a playoff loss to Green Bay, was as big of a disaster as it was, because to that point his 2023-2024 campaign was special. His 89.8 passing grade in the regular season ranked second only to Tua Tagovailoa. His 73.5 passing grade under pressure was No. 1. His 37 big-time throws in the regular season were the most in the NFL, and his 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate was the lowest among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks.
Prescott was efficient, aggressive and accurate, albeit with a poor showing to end the year.
Something something about fine wines getting better with age. Stafford had a fantastic season at age 35. His 83.8 passing grade in the regular season ranked seventh in the league, while his 32 big-time throws were the fifth most and his 2.1% turnover-worthy play rate placed second, behind only Prescott.
Stafford has long had one of the best arms in the league, and even if that total arm talent is going down slightly, he’s making up for it with wisdom, creativity and craftiness.
Who knows what Rodgers will look like in 2024 coming off his Achilles injury? But if you don’t take the toll of Father Time too far into consideration, Rodgers won MVP in 2020 and 2021, so just one season of play separates him from that back-to-back run. If he’s fully healthy, he has to remain a top-10 quarterback heading into the year. His resume demands it until we see otherwise.
It was a roller coaster of a year for Hurts, who set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and big-time throws, but also career highs in interceptions and lost fumbles. It was his third consecutive season of at least 10 rushing touchdowns, while he also led the position in rushing first downs.
It also just didn’t look like Hurts was fully healthy for a lot of the 2023 campaign. He wasn’t the same rushing threat overall, with lower missed tackles forced, yards per attempt and explosive run (20 yards or more) figures. It wasn’t as efficient or explosive a season as his 2022, but Hurts remains a constant threat from the position.
Cracking the top 10 after just one season may seem like a reach for Stroud, but man, his rookie year was impressive. His yards, touchdowns and big-time throw numbers all placed in the top half of the league, and he had some clutch moments and drives that were well beyond his years.
Stroud also logged the third-most completions of 20-plus yards (32) with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the league on such passes. That combination of success versus negative plays is unheard of for a rookie. Where Stroud struggled in 2023 was, understandably, knowing what he could and could not get away with in the NFL — and knowing when to take the chances and where to look. That’s all an experience thing. If he takes a step forward from what we saw in 2023, this top-10 ranking might be too low.
Love let it rip in 2023. He was a top-10 quarterback in total passing yards, a top-five quarterback in big-time throws and a top-two quarterback in passing touchdowns during the regular season.
But even more impressive than the raw season numbers was the context of the second half of the year. From Week 8 on, Love earned an elite 90.4 passing grade with 27 big-time throws and just 10 turnover-worthy plays. His play was elite down the stretch and into the playoffs.
He struggled with accuracy and consistent ball placement in the first half of the season but was on fire in the second half. If how Love ended the year is closer to what we can expect of him moving forward, he will ascend this list very quickly.
Lawrence has shown us flashes, and even extended periods of brilliance, but I continue to want more consistent high-level play before vaulting him into the top 10, which he is capable of. He ranked in the top five in big-time throws (33) but also in turnover-worthy plays (24) with 21 total turnovers on the year.
His season was a story of dealing with injuries, so he wasn’t feeling his best through those struggles. On a positive note, Lawrence had by far the most big-time throws on passes of 20-plus yards downfield (30). Adding Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis will only allow that to continue.
I’m fairly comfortable with Purdy’s ranking on this list. His consistent success — albeit in a very talented offense — over the past two years should not go unrecognized. His 78.3% adjusted completion rate was a top-five number in 2023, which speaks to his timing and accuracy. And his 5.4% big-time throw percentage shows that, even with below-average arm talent, he is a good enough anticipator to make things happen.
Purdy is also a very confident player and pushes the ball, which battles the “game manager” label he often gets; he’s not just a dink-and-dunk passer. Does he have the athletic talent of some other players? No, but he’s damn good at his job, regardless.
It was the best season yet for the former No. 5 overall pick, as the talented Tagovailoa earned the highest passing grade in the regular season of any quarterback (88.9) and made 35 big-time throws, good for third in the league. However, his 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate was higher than every other quarterback in the top five of big-time throws, and his 25 turnover-worthy plays were the fifth most.
When the play goes according to plan, Tua can be a surgeon; he had the lowest time to throw of any starting quarterback (2.33 seconds). But interestingly enough, he had the most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL when there was no pressure. His grade takes a significant dip when he is pressured, but he can still be productive if what he expects to see is there.
Tua’s arm is adequate for the NFL level, but it doesn’t get him out of trouble. either. He trusts head coach and play-caller Mike McDaniel a lot, which is a good thing, but there are times when he is too reliant on what the play should be and not what the best decision actually is post-snap.
Honestly, this feels too low for Cousins. He has been one of the most consistently successful NFL quarterbacks over the past few years. In his past six seasons, he has not posted an overall season grade below 80.0 and has just one sub-80.0 passing grade. But 2023 showed hints of a downturn.
Cousins played in only eight games in 2023 and was on pace for his lowest big-time throw rate before going down with a torn Achilles. However, he was also on track for his lowest turnover-worthy play rate. His adjusted completion percentage was at a career high but his average depth of target was at a career low. Now he’s 36 years old and coming off an Achilles tear with a new team in Atlanta. He has been incredibly efficient to this point in his career, and we’ll see if can be more aggressive in 2024.
For as much as Goff was already an efficient, in-structure quarterback, he took that to an even higher level last season. His 85.2 passing grade in 2023 was the highest of his career, his 3.4% big-time throw percentage was the highest single-season number since his Rams days and his 2.4% turnover-worthy play percentage was a career low.
Unfortunately, Goff’s play under pressure and outside of structure continues to leave a lot to be desired when compared to other top NFL quarterbacks.
Murray tore his ACL in November of 2022, so we knew most of his 2023 season would be lost. On top of that, we figured the Cardinals wouldn’t be very good and there wouldn’t be a reason to rush him back. But he returned in Week 10 for an eight-game season and played decently. His 2021 campaign was of an MVP caliber, with 43 big-time throws and just 14 turnover-worthy plays. But his 2022 season before injury was a massive step back. We will see which version of Murray comes out on top for the majority of 2024.
Smith put together back-to-back very solid seasons in 2022 and 2023. In his most recent campaign, he elevated his big-time throw rate from 5.4% to 6.0% and reduced his turnover-worthy play percentage from 4.2% to 3.5%. He missed two games due to a groin injury in 2023, so some of those cumulative numbers could have been even better.
But Smith’s two years have been a tale of four quarters. In the first half of 2022, he earned the third-highest passing grade in the league. In the second half, he led the league in turnover-worthy plays. In the first half of 2023, he had more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (11). But from Week 10 on, he was top five in passing grade and big-time throws.
At 33 years old and entering the final year of his deal with guaranteed money, Smith may not be seen as a franchise quarterback. But he is absolutely the kind of guy who can engineer a win in any given week.
I’m opening myself up to some criticism here, as Williams has yet to play a single down of NFL football. But I’m a draft guy, so to watch Williams at USC and scout what I think he is capable of in the NFL and rank him below guys I think he’s better than — even in 2024 — would be disingenuous.
Williams has the natural gifts to be an impactful football player in Year 1. He’ll be surrounded by some stud receivers and what is hopefully a good offensive line. The big question for him is whether all the Superman plays at USC were out of desperation or if that is his identity. If it was out of desperation and he can be comfortable playing in structure, he could be in for a big year. If he continues to play backyard football too much, 2024 might be a wild ride.
Mayfield played on a one-year, “prove-it” deal in 2023, where the “prove-it” part could have spelled the end of his time as an NFL starter. It wasn’t his best season, by the numbers, but it was enough to get him a three-year extension. His last four games of the year were the catalyst.
Overall, Mayfield was erratic, with 25 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays. But over the final four games he earned a top-10 passing grade, including an elite Week 15 performance on the road in Green Bay that propelled the Buccaneers to a strong finish and a playoff berth.
What you see is what you get from Derek Carr at this point. His PFF passing grade has finished between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the past five seasons. Now, I want to be clear, he is more good than bad. His turnover-worthy play rate has never been above 3.3% over that span, and his big-time throw percentage has been as high as 6.7%. But it has long felt like Carr leaves too many plays out on the field.
In 2023, Carr passed for 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but he recorded 17 big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays, a much closer ratio. He remains a frustrating player to watch due to the dichotomy of what he’s capable of versus what he puts on tape.
Wilson’s past two years make it nearly impossible to evaluate who he is as a quarterback and what he is capable of. What we did see last year is that he can still hit the moonshot when it’s there. Despite ranking just 21st in PFF passing grade, he was a top-10 quarterback in total big-time throws and rate and was a top-five passer in big-time throws when pressured. And yet, his big-time throw rates in his two years with the Broncos were two of the lowest in his career.
Wilson was also one of just a handful of quarterbacks with a time-to-throw average above 3.00 seconds, a constant throughout his career, which goes into his 100 sacks taken over the past two years (most in the NFL). It’s anyone’s guess as to what version of Wilson we’ll see in Pittsburgh. But when he’s been at his best, it’s been while pushing the ball downfield.
Watson has been a disappointment since joining the Cleveland Browns. He has played in just six games in each of the past two seasons due to suspension and injury, and he is coming off season-ending surgery to his throwing shoulder.
His numbers reflect all of that.
Watson’s 58.7 cumulative PFF passing grade over the past two years ranks 53rd among qualifying passers. Still, his dominant days in a Texans uniform are not a figment of your imagination. Perhaps this is the year we see it again, though he is running out of time to prove it.
Richardson is supremely talented and showed flashes of top-level traits in his four games in 2023. However, he suffered both a concussion and a sprain in his rookie year, the latter requiring surgery, which ended his season prematurely.
Goal No. 1 for Richardson is a fully healthy season. Goal No. 2 is improved accuracy and timing. We know he has a howitzer of an arm and is an elite rushing threat. But he must take a big step forward in his processing in 2024. He has the supporting cast to do so.
Young’s rookie season was, well, about as bad as it gets. His 52.6 passing grade ranked 41st among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 27.6 passing grade under pressure was the worst in the league.
The Panthers’ situation was equally as bad as it gets, so it’s hard to put all of that on Young. He was brilliant at Alabama, but there clearly wasn’t any confidence for him in 2023 in Carolina to replicate it. His overall athletic deficiencies (size and strength) were glaring last season. More confidence and better decision-making can get Young on the right track. 2024 will be an important evaluation season for the former No. 1 pick.
Maye is the unknown as a rookie. He did have the most big-time throws in college football over the past two years, which raises the ceiling of this group. If he is the starter, you can expect some gunslinger ups and downs.
Brissett played with Washington last season and saw action in only three games, though he earned an elite passing grade in one of them. He was respectable in both Miami and Cleveland, and his consistency could very well put off the Maye Era for a short time. The floor of what Brissett can do is what puts the Patriots’ duo higher on this list.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner comes into the league as a No. 2 overall pick and the likely starter out of the gate for the Commanders. Daniels’ dual-threat abilities give him a high floor right away with how much stress he can put on a defense, bringing a constant threat of picking up yards with his legs.
Daniels’ passing will surely be a work in progress, going from LSU’s potent offense to facing NFL talent, but he and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be a good match.
Levis didn’t get his first NFL start until Week 8 in 2023, but from then on he was an entertaining gunslinger. He finished the season with 16 big-time throws and 14 turnover-worthy plays with only two games where he earned a passing grade above 70.0.
His mission in 2024 is simple: make more good throws than bad ones. He has the arm talent to be a good starter in this league. He just needs to know when to rip it and, perhaps more importantly, when not to.
Jones was the third-ranked quarterback in PFF grade on his own team last year — behind Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. Jones played in just six games in 2023 and was basically either elite or one of the worst-graded quarterbacks in a given week, with no in-between.
He is a good athlete whose rushing production and ability to escape the pocket have always been a big part of his game. But in four of his five years with the Giants, he has finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. His average depth of target has also been low over the past three seasons.
Both Minshew and O’Connell started games in 2023, and they’ll now be competing for the same job in 2024. Their passing grades were close, with O’Connell recording a 64.6 and Minshew posting a 60.6. Those were good for 29th and 33rd, respectively, versus the rest of the league.
O’Connell was the more efficient of the two, with a higher big-time throw rate, higher adjusted completion percentage and lower turnover-worthy play rate. Regardless of who wins the starting job for Week 1, neither is a big needle-mover right now.
I don’t think McCarthy will be the starting quarterback right out of the gate, but a combination of Darnold and McCarthy for the 2024 season seems likely. Darnold has never finished a season with a passing grade above 67.0, but his past two were his highest. I am surprisingly excited to see Darnold get a shot as a starter this year, as he finished his final year in Carolina with a 6.7% big-time throw rate and a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate in six games as a starter.
Nix, after being selected No. 12 overall, will be the Broncos’ starter at some point, but that point might not be immediate.
Stidham just hasn’t been good to this point in his NFL career. He has one season where he earned a passing grade above 56.0, and his NFL resume includes just two big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays. Nix’s experience and efficiency at Oregon could help him break through quickly, though his adjustment from the Ducks’ offense to NFL situations could be a challenge.
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