2X82DXX Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands the ball off to running back Saquon Barkley during practice at the NFL football team's training facility, Wednesday, May 22, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
• A wide receiver is typically the option in Round 1: Unless someone has the first overall pick, wide receiver is the value throughout the first round.
• Wait for a quarterback and tight end, but not too long: The sweet spots at quarterback and tight end are a round later in 10-team leagues compared to 12-teamers, but it’s still important to get one of the better players at the positions.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
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The perfect fantasy football draft series combines current average draft positions from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick, and then we make the best picks with that information. This draft is designed for 10-team PPR leagues. Click here for our 12-team version.
Anyone with the top overall pick should take Christian McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year. Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are both worthy of being selected in the first round, but both also have slightly higher ADPs than they should, given the talent at wide receiver. That means if you pick anywhere from second to 10th, wide receiver is the best option.
Lamb noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
I will often advocate for a quarterback in the second round in 12-team leagues, but for 10-teamers, the top quarterbacks should fall to Round 3. This allows you to stick with the best running back or wide receiver available. Generally, there will be a little more value at running back, but it varies by pick.
Barkley finished last year at RB9, thanks to his volume. He ranked fourth in touches per game but averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry. He received little help from the New York Giants‘ offensive line, which ranked third worst in team run-blocking grade last season (41.1). Nine offensive linemen played at least 250 snaps, and none earned a run-blocking grade above 70.0. Now Barkley is with the Eagles, who have the NFL’s second-best offensive line despite losing Jason Kelce to retirement.
It’s important to add an elite quarterback, even in a 10-team league. While there are 10 quarterbacks who each team can draft and feel comfortable with, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have been consistently great the past three seasons. As such, there is an edge to having one of them thanks to their talents as both passers and rushers.
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the past four seasons. He is the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that span. He is also the only quarterback who is elite at both passing and rushing while running a lot. There is an obvious risk attached to drafting Allen after the Bills traded away star wideout Stefon Diggs, but the team’s light rebuild means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
There are solid tight end options in Rounds 5 and 6, and this team no longer needs a quarterback, so it makes sense to stick with a running back or wide receiver. It’s good to lean running back if the first two picks were wide receiver because there is better value at wide receiver in Round 5 than running back. Even if a running back was selected in Round 2, it’s advantageous to have two top-15 running backs. In 12-team leagues, that’s impossible without developing a clear weak point at another position. But it’s more reasonable in 10-team leagues.
White was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 fantasy season, finishing as the fourth-best running back overall despite a 3.6 yards-per-carry average. He tied for second in rushing attempts and fourth in receptions. Part of his success was simply due to his staying healthy, as he ranked only 10th in fantasy points per game. Tampa Bay drafted Bucky Irving, who will cut into White’s total touches, but there is also a chance White becomes more efficient when he gets the ball.
There isn’t much value at running back here, so the best option is either a wide receiver or tight end. The top such players available here won’t be on the board in Round 6, and the drop-off in wide receiver is a little larger, so we are leaning toward a wide receiver here. Still, it will vary based on pick number and how the draft has gone to this point.
Diggs has finished as a top-nine fantasy wide receiver in each of the past four seasons, but that’s when he was the top target for Josh Allen. Diggs still has a great quarterback throwing him the ball in C.J. Stroud, but his competition for targets is much higher with the Houston Texans. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are two of the best young wide receivers in the league, and Houston has more depth at wide receiver behind them. Diggs should still be capable of some elite fantasy weeks, but he will be less consistent.
This is the last point of the draft where a top-seven tight end can be picked, so if a tight end wasn’t selected in Round 5, it’s important to get either George Kittle or Kyle Pitts this round. If you’ve already picked a tight end, then most of the value is at running back outside of Tee Higgins.
On a per-play basis, Kittle has been roughly as good as Travis Kelce, but he plays for the San Francisco 49ers, who have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Kelce’s Kansas City Chiefs are among the most pass-heavy teams.
Having Brock Purdy at quarterback has helped Kittle’s efficiency, giving him more big plays and more touchdowns. Kittle was the only tight end last season to reach 1,000 yards, but he doesn’t get as many receptions as other great tight ends. Kittle has ranked in the top six in fantasy points per game for a tight end in each of the past six seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect him to extend that streak in 2024.
The running backs at this point of the draft are favorites to start when healthy but are facing significant competition. While these players aren’t necessarily the most exciting names, a few are expected to be clear starters on their team despite being on the older side. It’s good to have someone you can put in your starting lineup every week as long as they aren’t injured.
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF overall grade over the past three seasons (90.7), but he’s been held back by the Green Bay Packers‘ running back committee. He has just eight rushing touchdowns over the past three years, compared to the bigger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He played more than 60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in half of games in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just the final game of 2023 thanks to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he will have minimal competition for snaps and touches. Given how successful he’s been regardless of the situation, he is worth the risk at this point of the draft.
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Brown was a top-21 fantasy wide receiver in PPR points per game in 2021 and 2022, but his 2023 role changed after the Arizona Cardinals moved on from DeAndre Hopkins. That and the quarterback situation resulted in a lack of production in 2023, but he has an opportunity for a huge season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Brown is consistently near the top of our separation metrics, which could make him a perfect pairing for Patrick Mahomes. Considering how slowly the Chiefs have brought on rookie wide receivers in the past, as well as Rashee Rice’s legal situation, Brown may end up being Mahomes’ top wide receiver this season.
The next five rounds are mostly about picking “your guys.” If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to draft them, but I’d advise stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. A running back or wide receiver who somewhat exceeds expectations here would be in your starting lineup in a good matchup, but even a quarterback or tight end who is picked here and has a good season won’t start over the star quarterback and tight end selected, regardless of the matchup.
Johnson finished as WR28 in 2022 while tied for sixth in targets despite rookie Kenny Pickett being his quarterback. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers, with whom he should be the X receiver and the clear leader in targets. Everything indicates we could be in store for a similar season to 2022 this year if Bryce Young can’t improve. If Young does get better, we could see a season like 2021, when Johnson was the overall WR8.
Williams was everyone’s favorite running back heading into the 2022 season. It wasn’t until Week 4 that he was finally unleashed and playing the every-down role people were hopeful for, but that role lasted for just a half, as he tore his ACL and LCL. Williams returned for the 2023 season, but as Broncos head coach Sean Payton recently acknowledged, it often takes two seasons before a player is back to full speed and strength after such an injury.
The Broncos brought back Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine in addition to drafting Audric Estime, giving Williams plenty of competition. There is a wide range of outcomes for Williams, ranging from him regaining a featured role to him getting buried on the depth chart, and everywhere in between. 
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a PFF rushing grade of at least 73.0 every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It’s also possible that he won’t play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
There can be value found at running back or wide receiver in these final rounds, but there is a gap at running back here between the exciting players in two-man committees and those who are mostly handcuffs. Because of that, most of the value in Round 12 is at wide receiver.
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset, with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade remained consistent. He has finished between 77.0 and 83.0 in each of the past six seasons. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, and while everyone is excited about Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s prospects, the hope is that Grubb will be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Williams finished last season with the 10th-most fantasy points per game at wide receiver, albeit on three games played. He caught 15 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown in his last two games but then tore his ACL. His injury history is extensive, and he might not be ready to start the season. Williams signed with the New York Jets in free agency, and his new head coach Robert Saleh compared his timeline to Breece Hall’s last year. Williams may not be a fantasy starter in September or October, but if the Jets’ offense is playing well, he could be a steal over the second half of the season.
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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