EUGENE – While debates can be had about whether the top-end teams of the Big Ten Conference or the depth of quality teams in the Pac-12 Conference leads to a harder schedule, Oregon has an entirely new set of opponents for its upcoming football season.
Today we’ll rank the toughest matchups of the 2024 season and ultimately try to determine whether conference realignment has led to a harder schedule for the Ducks.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
I went back and forth on whether to put Michigan in this spot since that game is in Ann Arbor, but in the end I think Ohio State’s talent and continuity win out. Getting to play the Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium is a big advantage but they are pretty clearly the most well-constructed roster Oregon will face.
After recruiting at an elite level over the last few years and picking up several big-time transfers this offseason, there’s a case to be made that Ohio State will be the best team in college football this year.
2. Michigan Wolverines
The road element of this matchup is what makes it truly daunting. If this game were played in Eugene I wouldn’t be especially worried but we’ve all seen the difference a home environment makes at the college level. Michigan is the only team I projected Oregon losing to this year but with that in mind, it’s more of a trap spot than a true matchup problem.
I expect this to be an extremely physical and well-played game which Oregon has not had to face much of in the Pac-12 historically. As tempting as it was to rank this as the hardest game, Oregon’s roster advantage over Michigan should make it somewhat more winnable than the Ohio State game, at least on paper.
3. Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin hasn’t made a ton of noise lately but longtime college football fans understand what this program can bring to the table in any given year. Second-year coach Luke Fickell is highly respected in the college space and we often see teams make a big jump between the first and second years of a new regime.
Camp Randall Stadium is one of the tougher environments in the sport and this game’s placement towards the end of the season opens up the possibility of injuries affecting this game. While Oregon should be the more playoff-ready team in 2024, crazy things happen on the road and many good teams have had their seasons derailed by trips to Madison.
4. Washington Huskies
Washington doesn’t figure to be the threat they were last year after losing coach Kalen DeBoer and much of what was an elite 2023 roster, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous. New head man Jedd Fisch has a track record of improving his teams quickly and having this as the last game of Oregon’s regular season will give the Huskies plenty of time to get their act together.
What saves this from being a truly brutal matchup is it being played at Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks have been next to impossible to beat over the last handful of years. I expect Oregon to win a hard-fought game to close out the 2024 regular season.
5. Oregon State Beavers
Call it nostalgia, learned trauma, or whatever you’d like, but I expect the Oregon State matchup to once again be one of Oregon’s more difficult. After dropping games against the Beavers in 2020 and 2022, Oregon fans will be on the edge of their seats for this one despite the attrition Oregon State’s roster has gone through.
Former coach Jonathan Smith has moved on to a new job at Michigan State but first-year coach Trent Bray is well-regarded and worked wonders for the Beavers’ defense under coach Smith. This game being on the road early in the season means there’s a chance Oregon gets caught napping, but I still expect a relatively decisive win in this one.
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All in all, I’m not convinced Oregon’s move to the Big Ten has made for a more difficult schedule. While games against Michigan and Ohio State are difficult and represent premier matchups, they only account for ⅙ of Oregon’s games. Particularly in 2023, it felt like there was a serious risk of Oregon losing practically any of their games but I don’t get that sense this year.
Matchups against Purdue, Maryland, and Illinois simply don’t move the needle while last year teams as bad as Arizona State felt like potential trap spots. Some of this could have been due to remembering previous losses against now-easy teams, but there’s no mistaking the quality of play that was present in essentially every Pac-12 matchup.
LINDEN HILE
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