Thursday evening, the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in Detroit, as the NFL’s 32 teams will take turns making a total of 257 selections over seven rounds and three days. And like every year lately, the Michigan football team is expected to be well-represented at the event, and not just because this year’s draft is a short drive down I-94. This year, the Wolverines saw a record-setting 18 of its 2023 players invited to the NFL Draft Combine, indicating more than a dozen Wolverines expect to hear their names called at the event.
Below, we preview what Michigan storylines to watch from the event, breaking down all the relevant stats, notes and even some history at stake.
A record draft class?
We were one of the first publications to note that the Wolverines would have a chance to break Georgia’s 2022 record of 15 players taken in a single draft, when we broke it down last May. By the summer, Jim Harbaugh was singing a similar tune to anyone who would listen.
“I think we’ll have 20 guys picked (in the next NFL Draft),” Harbaugh told The Athletic. “I bet we break that (draft) record. (Georgia) had 15 that year.”
It won’t be 20, as some players like Donovan Edwards, Makari Paige, Josaiah Stewart and Rod Moore opted to stay at Michigan for another season. But after winning the national title behind a veteran-heavy team, the Wolverines saw 18 players receive invitations to the NFL Draft Combine, bringing some real legitimacy to the possibility that Michigan has 16 or more players taken this weekend.
It isn’t a lock to happen, to be sure. As of Tuesday, Pro Football Focus had just 13 Michigan players among the top 257 in its big board (though four were ranked in the 273-301 range). ESPN.com‘s seven-round mock draft had just 14 Michigan players selected, while NFL.com‘s seven round mock had 13 Wolverines selected. The NFL Mock Draft Database has 14 Michigan players in its top 257, while The Athletic gave 16 Michigan players draft grades, but more than half a dozen were sixth- or seventh-round grades.
To sum it up, the Wolverines are probably a safe bet to have 14 players drafted, which would be a program and Big Ten record, but may need some teams to like Michigan’s players as seventh-round selections to break Georgia’s record. That has often been the case, as the Wolverines’ commitment to special teams, film study and toughness — as well as Jim Harbaugh’s recommendation — helped unheralded players still get selected, but as of Thursday morning we would view Michigan actually setting the record as closer to a 50-50 proposition.
JJ on track for his own history
This story continues below.
Leading the charge for Michigan, and likely to hear his name called Thursday night, is quarterback JJ McCarthy. The Wolverines’ all-time record-holder in career completion percentage and passer rating has emerged as a somewhat polarizing prospect, but one who seems increasingly likely to be selected as a top-10 or even top-five pick.
Both sides of the debate have been sufficiently covered by now. Critics of McCarthy question a lack of eye-popping numbers (he only ranked 69th last fall in passing yards per game and 37th in passing touchdowns) or games where his passing seemed to make a difference in the contest. He finished the 2023 season 92nd nationally in pass attempts per game, including six games where he attempted 20 passes or fewer (including top-10 matchups against Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama).
Supporters of McCarthy will note his efficiency (he was ninth nationally in passer rating, sixth in completion percentage), advanced statistics (he excelled in third-down, out-of-pocket and downfield passing situations), his age (he only turned 21 in January) and his 27-1 record as a starter at Michigan as reasons to believe the best is still yet to come in his career.
Ultimately, where McCarthy goes remains one of the bigger talking points of the draft, but he seems likely to be a first-round draft pick. Here is some program history McCarthy could make:
-If he is selected in the first round, McCarthy will become the first Michigan quarterback to do so since Harbaugh did so in 1987.
-If he is selected in the top 20 picks, McCarthy will be the first Wolverine quarterback to do so since George Ceithaml went 19th overall in 1943.
-If he is selected higher than 10th, where Forest Evashevski was selected in 1941, McCarthy will set a record for Michigan’s highest-drafted quarterback ever.
It would be a fitting way for McCarthy — who already has a strong case as Michigan’s greatest collegiate quarterback — to end his college career and kick off his NFL journey.
Long-time contributors, first-time draftees
It’s well-documented that, last offseason, a number of draft-caliber players opted to stay one more year at Michigan to try to win a national title with the Wolverines. Now, after accomplishing that mission, the Wolverines’ next picks after McCarthy include a number of long-time veterans.
Mike Sainristil, Michael Barrett, Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, Cornelius Johnson, Junior Colson and Karsen Barnhart all started at least half of Michigan’s games in three separate seasons, while Jaylen Harrell and Kris Jenkins both logged more than 30 career starts for the maize and blue. By comparison, Michigan’s 2024 roster has two players with 20 or more career starts for the Wolverines (Rod Moore, 27; Makari Paige, 20).
This isn’t brought up to compare the two teams, but rather note how rare this year’s draft class is for Michigan. Particularly in the modern era of college football, it’s hard to have 10 players spend that much time on campus, then opt to return for another season. But for Michigan, who also kept those players on the team even after a 2-4 season, that experience paid dividends in practice, games and in Michigan’s culture last fall. And even if so many pieces are headed to the NFL, the core group’s loyalty to Michigan and contributions shouldn’t be forgotten.
Transfer triumphs
Just as Michigan will be able to show the perks of sticking it out with Michigan and its draft process, it may also be able to use this weekend to show that transfer portal players can use Michigan to launch their NFL careers. Of the 18 NFL Combine invitees, four were added via the transfer portal last offseason: Drake Nugent, LaDarius Henderson, AJ Barner and Josh Wallace. All four were team captains at their previous programs, took a back seat as leaders to help Michigan win the national title, and now may see their NFL Draft dreams come true.
It would be fair to note that none of the four are locks to be drafted like many of the aforementioned players, as none of the transfers are projected top-200 picks. But while Nugent and Henderson were named All-Big Ten for their efforts, and solidified their name among NFL scouts, Wallace and Barner greatly improved and arguably even built their draft stock while in Ann Arbor. Should they hear their names called, they’ll join Olu Oluwatimi and Mike Danna as recent transfer portal additions to be drafted after one year in Ann Arbor.
Ten other tidbits to watch
-It goes without saying that Michigan will continue its nation-leading streak of 85 consecutive NFL Drafts with at least one player selected. The last time the Wolverines didn’t have a player selected was 1939.
-In addition to potentially setting its own record for most players taken in one draft, Michigan can also set or tie a program record with six or more players taken in the top-100 picks. The Wolverines’ 1972 class had six selections, while the 2001 and 2017 classes had five apiece. Currently, McCarthy, Corum, Sainristil, Colson, Wilson and Jenkins are commonly viewed as top-100 prospects, while players like Zinter and Keegan could sneak into the range.
-Michigan will try to set a record for most offensive linemen taken in one NFL Draft, with six.
-The Wolverines will have three NFL head coaches with innate familiarity of Michigan’s program. Jim Harbaugh is now coaching the Los Angeles Chargers, former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is coaching the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, Jim’s brother, has spent time around the program, and previously employed Michigan’s last three defensive coordinators.
-Michigan hasn’t had a running back selected in the top 100 picks since Chris Perry in 2004. Corum will try to snap that drought.
-Similarly, the Wolverines have had one receiver (Devin Funchess, 2015) go in the opening two rounds since Braylon Edwards in 2005.
-Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell can become the 11th and 12th Michigan edge rushers to be drafted since 2017 (eight drafts, including 2024’s)
-53 Michigan players have already been drafted after playing at least one season under Jim Harbaugh, dating back to 2016. That number can grow to as high as 70 this week, and could even push toward 80 in what is expected to be a strong 2025 NFL Draft class for the Wolverines.
-Of the 18 NFL Combine invitees from Michigan, only one was a five-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite (McCarthy), one more was a top-100 recruit (Colson) and seven were former three-star recruits.
-Michigan can extend its streak of consecutive drafts with a first-round selection to six years. That would tie the Wolverines’ streak from 1991-96 for longest in program history.
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