NCAAF
I’m old enough to remember when April was a fairly sleepy time in college football, save for spring games (which themselves can put you to sleep). But now, every second of every day is another portal transaction, another list of finalists or another defensive end saying he fled Pitt because … the team’s offense is so bad.
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Great content all around.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Max Olson had an interesting piece about how different programs view the transfer portal. What are your thoughts about the different approaches that seem to be emerging? What is sustainable? — Brad R. in Knoxville
As Max illustrated well, all these programs are in different situations, so their approaches vary accordingly. And they may even vary within the same program from one year to the next.
It’s not sustainable to bring in 25 new transfers every year. But, it may be unavoidable when a coach takes over a new program, either because the roster wasn’t very good or because it got decimated after the coaching change. For instance, Washington’s Jedd Fisch took over a program that lost nearly all its best players either to the NFL or the portal and is alarmingly thin on the offensive line, among other areas. It would be negligent on his part not to go load up in this portal window and likely will be next year as well.
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In an ideal world, you’re Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State and still build your roster primarily through traditional recruiting, then use the portal just to plug a few holes. Georgia added just one transfer in the offseason leading up to its second national title team, then four last year, before jumping to eight this year. I don’t believe Kirby Smart has any plans to ever sign 15 to 20 transfers in a single offseason.
But 99 percent of coaches aren’t sitting on a stockpile of existing talent like Smart.
The MVP of the portal era has been Florida State’s Mike Norvell, who leaned heavily on the portal to turn his program around across several seasons while continuing to build and maintain culture. The key reason for that: Most of the Seminoles’ portal players have not been one-year rent-a-players. Players like wide receiver Johnny Wilson (Arizona State), running back Trey Benson (Oregon) and defensive end Jared Verse (Albany) were there for at least two seasons. And I’m not even counting quarterback Jordan Travis, who transferred from Louisville so long ago that he played his first season at FSU for Willie Taggart.
But this whole thing is still evolving and is likely going to get even more chaotic. The NCAA only now is about to make unlimited transfers permanent after being forced into it by a lawsuit filed late last year. Coaches are going to have to be very careful about vetting the players they sign because there are going to be a whole lot who enter the portal on a whim with little or no college experience and who may or may not up and leave again a semester later. It’s become a virtually unmanageable environment, which everyone in power recognizes needs to change but thus far has offered no tangible plan other than to beg Congress for help.
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The five types of CFB programs you meet in the transfer portal
Do you see a scenario where Ohio State suffers a Texas A&M-like fate after simply buying so many players? When do programs realize that money can’t buy good culture? — Thomas P.
I assume you’re referring to Jimbo Fisher’s famed “Sliced Bread” Class of 2022? To this day, I have no idea how much A&M boosters spent at the time, which was very, very early NIL, but I suspect it was a fraction of what the major programs are spending now. But also, that class was made up of high school players. So there’s not much of a comparison.
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As I wrote about last week, most of Ohio State’s spending spree went toward retaining star players like running back TreVeyon Henderson and DE JT Tuimoloau who could have turned pro. Ryan Day certainly made some splashy, and presumably expensive, portal pickups, but ultimately it was just five players (for now): quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State), running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), safety Caleb Downs (Alabama), offensive lineman Seth McLaughlin (Alabama) and quarterback Julian Sayin (Alabama, briefly). That would seemingly help, not hurt culture.
But that’s not to say money guarantees success. While I’d be shocked if the Buckeyes aren’t in the 12-team College Football Playoff, who’s to say they make it out of the first round? Their defense is going to be ridiculous, but it’s not certain who will be their quarterback (presumably Howard or Devin Brown) and whether their biggest weakness last year, the offensive line, will be markedly better. And who knows what’s going to happen when these uber-talented teams have to play three, possibly four games against each other to win a national title.
But Day made a good point in my interview: “You like your chances a lot more when you have good players.”
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After an embarrassing Cotton Bowl loss, Ohio State donors went on a spending spree
Michigan and Washington were two of the older, most experienced teams going into last year. Other than Ohio State, which rosters across the Power 4 are the oldest heading into the season? — Aaron H.
Great question, as it’s becoming increasingly clear in the portal era how much continuity and experience matter. I don’t have a comprehensive list for you, but a few programs come to mind:
First and foremost, Ole Miss. Quarterback Jaxson Dart will be a senior entering his third year as a full-time starter, and the Rebels may have seniors at almost every position on offense, including top receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, tight end Caden Prieskorn and offensive linemen Nate Kalepo and Julius Buelow (both transfers from Washington). The defense will be high on experience as well, led by veteran defensive linemen Jared Ivey, JJ Pegues and Princely Umanmielen (via Florida).
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While Oklahoma State’s biggest star, running back Ollie Gordon II, is only entering his third year, quarterback Alan Bowman has been in college since 1942. The entire offensive line is seniors, and top wide receivers Rashod Owens and Brennan Presley are fifth-year players. Nearly the entire defense is old as well.
And then there’s Iowa, which brings back nearly everyone but star cornerback Cooper DeJean. Defensive linemen Deontae Craig, Yahya Black and Ethan Hurkett and linebacker Jay Higgins are all entering at least their fourth seasons and lead what should be another stout defense. And don’t forget about quarterback Cade McNamara, the starter for Michigan’s 2021 Playoff team who missed most of last season.
I’m sure folks in the comments will provide several other examples.
Lakefront football on the Northwestern campus is about to happen. What is your reaction to this news from Northwestern? What do you see as the good, the bad and the ugly from this development? — Adam, New Albany, Ohio
Well, first of all, I’m thrilled for the students who, for the first time, can roll out of bed and get to the game within minutes. God bless Dyche Stadium/Ryan Field, but it’s a mile west of campus. And I much prefer this creative on-campus solution to some of the alternatives being floated, like a soccer stadium on the opposite side of Chicago. I’m sure some will make fun of a Big Ten team playing in front of 15,000 people, but Northwestern wasn’t going to get much more than that for Miami-Ohio and Eastern Illinois anyway.
Northwestern football ‘staying home’ with temporary enhancements to the Lanny and Sharon Martin facility on lakefronthttps://t.co/siGv5K0OcN
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) April 10, 2024
It’s concerning that the school still doesn’t officially know where it’s playing most of its Big Ten games (although it sounds like Wrigley Field is most likely for the Nov. 16 Ohio State game). What at first seemed like the obvious venue, Soldier Field, is proving to be problematic. The school has known since at least 2022 that construction was going to begin this year, provided it was approved. How is it only now figuring out a plan for a season that starts in less than five months?
Most of all, I’m fascinated to see what it looks like. The field the team is going to be using — home of the lacrosse and soccer teams — is wedged into a tiny plot of land in between the football practice field on one side, the field hockey field on another and Lake Michigan on the other two. Supposedly it’s still possible to erect a temporary 15,000-seat grandstand like the one on the 16th hole of the Phoenix Open. If nothing else, it will be one of the most unique venues in college football.
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What’s in it for the big-name teams in the Super League? How is there more money (for them) in that configuration, and roughly how much is that? — Pat T.
As of today: Nothing. In the current landscape, where SEC and Big Ten schools are making far more in conference revenue than their competitors, there’s no obvious reason for those leagues to entertain a joint venture with 50ish lower-resourced schools.
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Inside the CFB ‘Super League’ pitch some execs see as a way to save the sport
But the authors of that proposal basically are saying that everyone — even those schools/conferences — is going to need a bigger boat soon. That $60 million per year in Big Ten TV revenue is going to get sliced down by an as-yet undetermined percentage when the schools are forced to start sharing with the athletes. Also, the Big Ten (and ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) is a defendant in the House lawsuit that could well end in a $1-$2 billion settlement. That, too, could leave a big dent in those leagues’ coffers.
If you’re Ohio State and Texas, which make $250 million per year in athletic revenue, you may still be able to easily afford those added expenses. But if you’re Mississippi State, at $110 million, those conference paychecks account for roughly half your revenue. If they suddenly get sliced in half — how are you making up the difference? Mississippi State already sponsors the bare minimum number of sports (16) to be a Division I member, so cutting teams is not an option, and deemphasizing football would be unpalatable to the fan base.
That being said, the authors of the Super League don’t exactly have an ironclad guarantee they can generate more revenue than what exists. The idea, in theory, is to unwind the conference’s respective TV rights and package them as one property to gain more leverage. But even if they figured out the logistics, ESPN, Fox, etc., could well say, “We don’t think this 80-team thing is worth any more than what we pay now.”
But you know what would be worth more? A true Super League that’s far fewer than 80 schools in which nearly every single game all season is blueblood versus blueblood. (Or at least Top-25 program versus Top-25 program.)
So while it’s easy to say today, why would Greg Sankey or Tony Petitti allow some outside group to come in and take over college football, well, both of them hold fiduciary obligations to all of their members. And if doomsday arrives, it may fall on them to protect the lower half of their membership from getting kicked to the curb entirely.
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Is it possible to get Arch Manning a nonconference start without initiating a media firestorm? It seems like given Quinn Ewers’ injury history, you’d want to ensure Arch has some early reps. — Chris M.
I don’t know about starting him because that then becomes a whole thing if he goes out and crushes it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Sarkisian finds opportunities to at least get Manning meaningful snaps early in the year — not because he’s Arch Manning but because Texas intends to play 16 or 17 games this season.
That has come up a lot in my conversations with coaches lately. Teams with aspirations of reaching and then advancing in a 12-team Playoff are going to need to build depth, not just at quarterback but everywhere. In the past, the only time some second-teamers got in games was after the outcome was decided. That’s mostly to be able to say they got in the game. It’s experience, but it’s not meaningful experience.
It will be interesting this season to see whether coaches become more intentional about getting their younger players real game experience when possible. Granted, teams can rotate more naturally at some positions (running back, linebacker, defensive line) than others (receiver, unless you’re Ohio State, offensive line, secondary). The best way to give up a soul-crushing touchdown is to insert a redshirt freshman cornerback before he’s ready.
But with quarterbacks like Manning, it could mean a series here, a series there or just plain pulling the starter earlier if it’s clear you’re going to win fairly easily.
When I was at Ohio State a couple of weeks ago, someone told me a story involving the Buckeyes’ 2006 game at Texas in early September. Jim Tressel was supposedly so concerned about the heat that he went in with a plan to sub out the entire offensive line after the second series — much to the concern of his staff. I went and found the game on YouTube, and sure enough, I counted at least four second-stringers in on the third series (the Buckeyes scored their first touchdown).
If that starts happening this season, it might not be about the heat, it will be about staying fresh through Jan. 20.
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Better odds? Oklahoma only wins six games, Washington only wins five games or Kansas wins 11 games? — Justin C.
I’d love to know how you picked Oklahoma for this scenario. The Sooners won 10 games last season and did not suffer some mass attrition. SEC or not, that one’s not on the table for me. I am very high on Kansas and would not rule out a 2007-esque run for the Jayhawks. But 11 wins is a lot. It likely means they’re winning the Big 12 title. That could happen. But I’d say the same is possible for Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Kansas State.
But Washington going 5-7 — or worse — is definitely on the table.
That may sound alarmist for a team that just reached the national championship game, but I’m not sure I’ve heard of a team with just two returning starters (cornerback Elijah Jackson and linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala). Granted, there are other returnees with experience, like wide receiver Giles Jackson. Fisch already has added/kept a decent number of transfers in the winter, most notably quarterback Will Rogers (Mississippi State), running back Jonah Coleman (Arizona), wide receiver Jeremiah Hunter (Cal) and standout defensive tackle Sebastian Valdez (Montana State). Fisch surely will add more in the coming weeks.
But as of spring ball, Washington barely has any experienced offensive linemen, and there are question marks throughout the defense. It may be that by fall, Washington has stockpiled enough transfers to trot out a decent first string, but it likely will have little depth. The Huskies do catch one break in that their September slate is light. It’s possible they already have four wins by the time they hit their hardest stretch of Big Ten games (Michigan, at Iowa, USC, at Penn State, at Oregon).
With the new Playoff system, will the Big Ten champion automatically go to the Rose Bowl? — Benjamin J.
How glorious is Jan. 1 going to be? That day will be a must-see for even casual fans. What say you? — Doug, St. Louis
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For the final two years of the current contract, yes, the top four seeds will be placed at their conference’s traditional bowl when possible. So with no more Pac-12, the Big Ten champ is all but guaranteed the Rose Bowl. With the Sugar Bowl, it would be whichever is higher between the SEC and Big 12 champ. It worked out nicely for those leagues that their bowls hosted semis last year. Whereas the Orange Bowl is a semifinal site this year, so the ACC champ likely goes to the Peach (if SEC is in the Sugar) or Fiesta (if Big 12 is in Sugar).
And yes, I’m not sure if it will fully sink in until we get there, but the fact you will be able to spend New Year’s Day watching Playoff games for 10 straight hours (on top of the first quarterfinal the night before) sounds glorious. I will say, as I have in the past, it doesn’t feel quite right that the semis then get pushed to a random Thursday and Friday night in January. It feels like the biggest games should be on Jan. 1. But in terms of volume, it will be the best New Year’s Day since the pre-BCS era.
But man, New Year’s Day feels a long way away. Let’s get through Passover first.
(Top photo of Ryan Day: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
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Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic’s college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts “The Audible” podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
