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Drew drops in to give you a couple things to watch for during the exhibition game this afternoon.
First and foremost, I hope y’all enjoyed your day yesterday. Now it’s time to get down to a little business. I’ve been struggling with how to write about this game for a couple of weeks now, and seeing as how kickoff is a little over three hours away, it’s now or never.
Personally, I’ve had to reframe how I think and talk about bowl games. In the prior era of football, they tangibly mattered—they still matter now, but they matter for a different reason. Instead of thinking about this as the end of the 2024 season, consider it a sneak preview for the 2025 season and one last chance to see some of your favorite players in a K-State uniform. This game is truly an exhibition, and while you want to win every game you play, the final score may be one of the least important aspects of this matchup. Both teams will play to win, but I’m not sure a win or a loss tells us much about the 2024 Wildcats. That team was essentially disbanded after the Iowa State game. That doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of things to watch for today as we stumble into the gauzy post-Christmas/pre-New Year world.
If I’m generous, the 2024 season was a mixed bag for Johnson. If I’m being truthful, he didn’t live up to incredibly (impossibly?) high expectations.
He won’t redeem or ruin his season today. More than anything, I want to see him play loose. Avery strikes me as a quarterback who needs to think less and play more. Too often this season, hesitancy to pull the trigger on a play early led to Johnson making a bad decision late in the play. One thing I plan to look at over the football offseason is Johnson’s interceptions. I don’t have the data in front of me yet, but I feel like he threw multiple interceptions when throwing the ball wasn’t necessary. I feel like (note: this is my personal opinion, with no supporting evidence) he could have halved his interceptions simply by playing loose and taking what the defense provided instead of trying to prove to someone (the NFL, perhaps) that he’s a pocket quarterback always looking to throw the ball instead of running when the opportunity presents itself.
What separates Avery from other quarterbacks is his elite athletic ability, not his arm strength. On occasion, though, Avery has played like his arm is his elite trait. Don’t get me wrong, he’s got a cannon, but he’s not Pat Mahomes, and when he tries to play like Mahomes, bad things happen. I keep hearing about how Johnson is one of the fastest players, not only on K-State but in the Big 12 and possibly the nation. Based on his high school performance, I guess that’s true, but I didn’t see it this season.
I look at crucial late-season games against Arizona State and Houston—games where one play made the difference between a win and a loss—and Johnson didn’t make winning plays with his arm or his legs. He had 18 rushing yards against Houston in a game where the Cougars’ quarterback, Zeon Chriss, essentially won the game with a 41-yard rushing touchdown in the 4th quarter. When it came down to winning time, Chriss made a play, and Johnson threw a couple of picks.
The same thing happened against Arizona State. Sun Devil quarterback Sam Leavitt made multiple drive-saving first downs with his legs, racking up 42 yards on five carries. Meanwhile, Avery Johnson, the supposed elite athlete, had six carries for 21 yards. The touchdown helped a little, but not enough to offset two picks and zero passing touchdowns. I don’t like to compare quarterbacks, but in this case, Will Howard made the winning plays during his time in Manhattan that Avery did not make this season, especially in grind-it-out games late in the season. I don’t want to dwell on the past, but this team plays for a Big 12 Championship if Avery doesn’t have two brutal games against Arizona State and Houston.
Back to the original point, I want to see Avery play a decisive game today. I want to see him abandon plays sooner and use his legs to gain yards, not extend plays and hope someone breaks open late. I don’t care if the NFL wants him to work through four progressions while dodging multiple sacks—he’ll have plenty of time to work on that in the NFL. K-State needed him to be the most dynamic player on the field in 2024, and he’s not that player if he refuses to run when given the opportunity.
I want to see him be that player today.
It was another disappointing season for the Wildcat receivers. Jayce Brown stepped up to give Johnson a pseudo #1 receiver, but I was never sold on the idea of Brown being “the guy” for K-State. He’s a solid playmaker, but he lacks consistency and, at 180ish pounds, I’m not sure he’s physically up to dealing with the rigors of an entire season as the #1 guy.
I was intrigued by Tre Spivey’s progress towards the end of the season, but he’s in the portal now, so that’s out the window. At the same time, I’m not sure Spivey and Cephas stepping up at the end of the year was because they got better or if it’s because Brown and Johnson were so beat up that Johnson had no choice but to throw the ball elsewhere.
Speaking of Keagan Johnson, he’s also in the portal.
I feel bad for Keagan. We saw glimpses of his talent when he was healthy, but it felt like he was either injured, dealing with an injury, or recovering from an injury 95% of the time he was in Manhattan. I assume that also led to him missing a good deal of practice, which could be the reason he never seemed to develop much of an on-field rapport with either Will Howard or Avery Johnson.
This is the perfect opportunity for a wide receiver to jump up and grab momentum heading into the offseason. The staff has already secured commitments from two transfers, and if I’m a receiver already on the roster, that’s concerning. Guys currently on the roster, like Andrew Davis and Erwin Nash, have one last chance to impress before the new guys hit campus.
Run Defense
I have a theory.
I think Kansas State is a year behind curve on defense.
College football is cyclical. Spread passing attacks have been in vogue for the last decade. Subsequently, defenses have evolved to slow down spread passing attacks. K-State evolved to take a linebacker off the field and replace him with a safety. The linebackers they do play look more like jumbo safeties than the run stuffing linebackers in cowboy collars of my youth. The Coaching staff has consistently went with speed over size at the second level of the defense.
In response, offenses have gone back to running the ball against light defensive fronts. I’d like to see Kansas State get more beef on the field next season. If they’re going to spend a good bit of time in nickel, I’d like to see them play with two Austin Romaine style linebackers plugging the A-Gaps or I’d like to see them play more of a true 4-man front with a nose tackle and a 3-tech defensive tackle. Either way, the ‘Cats have to find a way to get more size on the field in 2025.
Poor tackling was a constant issue in 2024, some of that is on technique, but some if it is on physics. Often times K-State would end up on the wrong side of the mass x acceleration equation. The coaching staff went out and got Alec Marenco from the portal to fill that role in 2024, and it didn’t work out. Gabe Powers, the recently committed 6’4”, 245-pound Ohio State transfer is clearly earmarked for that role in 2025, but I’d like to see someone on the current roster at least step up and provide a 3rd option. They have plenty of speed guys for outside-the-box linebackers but need someone like Rex Van Wyhe to step up and provide another in-the-box linebacker, otherwise they need to go out and find someone else to fill the role. It was a glaring weakness all season, and it only got worse as the injuries started to mount.
Speaking of glaring weakness, corner is another issue.
The coaching staff didn’t find a replacement for Will Lee defection in 2023, and it hurt the defense in 2024. I love Jacob Parish as a field corner, but I don’t like him as a boundary corner. I like Keenan Garber as a slot corner, but don’t like him as a field corner. Freshman Zashon Rich was able to step up and earn playing time late, because at 6’1”, he provided some of what the 6’3” Lee provided for the defense and allowed Parrish and Garber to move to their more natural positions.
Keenan’s out of time and Parrish will be taking his game to the NFL next season (where he’ll be a nickel corner, not a #1 boundary corner like he was at K-State). The transfer portal will be utilized to help out, but why recruit guys like Donovan McIntosh, Kanijal Thomas, and Justice James if you have to go to the portal every year to try and fill in spots they should be taking?
I’d like to see one of the 3 emerge as a starting option next to Rich at the field spot today. James is listed as a starter today, and with the new JuCo rules, should be back next season (I’m pretty sure). He’ll have the first chance to show what he can do today.
More than anything, I want to be entertained today. That’s what I’m looking for from exhibition football, and that’s what was missing at times from K-State this season. This team was decent, but it always felt like they were trying to be something they weren’t, starting with the quarterback. Instead of trying to be more like other teams, I want to see the passion and relentless enthusiasm that separates the ‘Cats from other Big 12 programs return in 2025.
Go back and watch any of the last three losses. K-State looks tight on offense and conservative on defense. I put that on the players and the coaches. There is nothing to lose today. I hope everyone cuts it loose.
This is still supposed to be fun, and I don’t feel like that was the case for some guys in 2024. It’s time to get back to fun football, starting today.
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