Once regarded as the biggest up-and-coming name among the college football head coaching ranks, Lincoln Riley is just 19-8 in two years at USC and now, with the school embarking on a historic move to the Big Ten amid this year's conference realignment, the pressure is mounting.
So much so that college football's most famous analyst suggests that the Riley era at USC could already be in its final stages.
Speaking on his show recently, Paul Finebaum argued that it's not out of the question that USC could finish the 2024 football with a losing record, and that Riley has lost control of the program.
"Bruce Feldman said a minute ago that he thought they are looking at about seven wins, which is pretty dangerous when you are the USC coach and you have two back-to-back bad seasons," Finebaum said.
"I mean, I think it's over for Lincoln Riley, anyway. To me, he's lost control. And once you lose control, you're like in the middle of quicksand," Finebaum added.
Things have not gone according to plan for USC since bringing Riley on two years ago. His famous sudden departure from Oklahoma and debut at the Coliseum seemed like something out of a Hollywood blockbuster, and for a time it seemed like the Trojan faithful finally had their man.
USC won 11 games in Riley's debut season and quarterback Caleb Williams was awarded the Heisman Trophy, but its porous defense sabotaged the team at the moment it seemed like a College Football Playoff berth was inevitable.
An ugly loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game and a 1-point defeat to Group of Five program Tulane in the Cotton Bowl was a disappointing end to an otherwise-hopeful campaign.
Then, a year ago, Riley's team went just 8-5 behind another disastrous defensive effort, losing to four ranked teams but finished with a win over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl.
Now, USC looks ahead to a difficult 2024 football schedule that includes a season opener in Las Vegas against SEC contender LSU before embarking on a tough Big Ten slate.
College Football HQ ranks USC's schedule as the second-most difficult in the conference in 2024, with road games against Michigan and Washington and home dates against Penn State and Notre Dame, both of which are playoff contenders this season.
This isn't the first time Finebaum has delivered some harsh criticism of Riley and his job at USC.
In comments to The Matt Barrie Show last season, the ESPN analyst and long-time college football commentator called the Trojans a "complete disaster" under Riley.
“I don’t know that I’ve seen a worse coaching job by anyone than Lincoln Riley this year,” Finebaum said after USC's loss to UCLA, the team's fifth defeat in six games.
“It’s a complete disaster, and quite frankly, he outta pack up. I don’t really see what his path is moving forward.”
“Maybe, Lincoln, you oughta look in the mirror,” he said. “Maybe you’re just a total fraud as a coach.”
This season is Riley's chance to prove those words wrong, otherwise USC may be forced to make a very difficult decision long before it expected it would have to.
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JAMES PARKS
James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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