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There are still four matches still to be played in the third round of Asian qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup but pencil in Japan for an 8th consecutive appearance on football’s biggest stage.
In what has been a display of sheer dominance, the Samurai Blue are running away at the top of Group C — boasting a nine-point lead over their closest challengers.
When the Asian qualifiers resume next year, Japan can seal their World Cup ticket as early as against Bahrain on March 20. If not, they should get the job done five days later with in another home game — against Saudi Arabia.
Yet, reaching the World Cup is now the bare minimum for the Japanese.
As the latest round of Asian qualifiers concluded, Samurai Blue coach Hajime Moriyasu stated a bold target of actually winning the World Cup — labelling it their “very, very high goal”.
No team outside Europe or South America have been crowned world champions but Moriyasu was not exactly out on line with his words.
Previously, the Japan Football Association announced “The JFA Pledge for 2050”, with one of the primary tenets being to win the World Cup by then.
To remain on the right path, mid-term goals were set and one of those is to reach the semifinals by 2030, which means the Japanese now have two tournaments to achieve just that — which would still be a monumental achievement given they have never made it past the round of 16 even.
In Moriyasu’s defence, he did not explicitly say the goal was to win the upcoming World Cup — but could Japan be realistic contenders given their current upward trajectory?
We assess their chances based on four components.
The starting XI
Can Japan’s strongest lineup match it with the world’s best?
They’ve proven just that as recently as the last World Cup, when they defeated both Germany and Spain before only being eliminated on penalties after holding Croatia to a 0-0 draw in the last 16.
For some time, the Japanese have been able to boast a starting XI entirely comprising players based in Europe. The difference is that, now, they’re not just on the books but featuring prominently — many in some very notable leagues.
Based on the qualifiers so far, Moriyasu’s strongest XI right now is Zion Suzuki (Parma) in goal, a three-man central defence of Ko Itakura (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Shogo Taniguchi (Sint-Truiden) and Koki Machida (Union Saint-Gilloise), midfielders Ritsu Dōan (Freiburg), Wataru Endō (Liverpool), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting CP) and Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), and three attackers in Takumi Minamino (Monaco), Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) and Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord).
Not all these positions are pinned down. Crystal Palace‘s Daichi Kamada is often rotated with Kubo, Reims duo Junya Itō and Keito Nakamura are regularly called upon on the flanks, while new Leeds man Ao Tanaka is a capable stand-in in central midfield.
In terms of their stature at club level, Japan are evidently still not at the level of teams such as Argentina, France, Spain or England, but they aren’t too far off.
And as proven to be the case, it is something more about how players operate as a team that matters most, rather than just having a plethora of stellar names.
The depth
This is perhaps the area where Japan are still lacking the most.
Players such as Daizen Maeda and Reo Hatate — both on the books of Scottish Premiership giants Celtic — have impressive credentials but haven’t exactly shone on the international stage.
Another Celtic man in Kyogo Furuhashi has been prolific for his club but is yet to be given a real chance to show what we can offer his country.
Based on the names that were not called up this time around, the only ones that would genuinely improve Moriyasu’s hand are Ueda, Hiroki Itō of Bayern Munich and Arsenal man Takehiro Tomiyasu, who are all currently sidelined through injury.
The fact that 38-year-old Yuto Nagatomo, who is admittedly still performing well back in the J1 League, remains in the national team fold suggest a lack of dependable options to turn to in reserve.
The current depth situation is not something that the Samurai Blue will be unfamiliar with.
They’ve often had players in the periphery who are dependable and capable of the odd big moment, as Takuma Asano did when he came off the bench to net a memorable winner against Germany at the last World Cup, but who just don’t show enough for a prolonged period — either on the club or international stage — to force their way into the starting XI reckoning.
It means that there are spots in the strongest XI that are locked in, which then leads to a decrease in competition for places that could really lift Japan to the next level.
The coach
Moriyasu used to polarise opinions.
While he masterminded victories over Germany and Spain at the last World Cup, the fact that he still relied on a counterattacking style of play suggested that he did not think his team was good enough to go head to head with their more-illustrious opponents.
In their other group game, he then curiously decided to again opt for a conservative approach even though they were the favourites against Costa Rica.
For the time being, however, Moriyasu seems to have learnt from his mistakes.
He has now thrown caution to the wind after settling on his current system towards the end of the previous stage of Asian qualifiers, which employs the very attack-minded Mitoma and Dōan as wing-backs.
With Endō and Morita also pushing forward whenever Japan are in possession, it means that the Samurai Blue effectively operate with seven offensive players. That’s not factoring in the wide centre-backs like Itakura and Machida venturing up the field, with the latter recently stepping up to excellent effect when he initiated the move that led to a Minamino goal in last week’s 4-0 win over Indonesia.
This adventurous approach has continued even when Japan are up against more-equal opposition in Australia and Saudi Arabia, but only time will tell if Moriyasu persists with being this carefree against top European and South American sides.
The mentality
Given it stems from the more salient national culture, Japanese football has always had a identity of respect and humility.
They don’t make brash claims (even Moriyasu’s World Cup target was delivered in an understated manner) and take painful losses with an almost-masochistic stoicism.
But perhaps, to truly become the best, there also needs to be some level of ruthlessness. Even a bit of a mongrel in them. Or an ability to resort to the dark arts when it could be the minute difference between victory and defeat.
Being a humble outfit should not prevent them from actually believing they can beat any team they come up against. Even if they do not express it before the game, they should show it once they take to the field.
From the way they have played thus far in the Asian qualifiers, promising signs of change are there.
There is a swagger to their play. A slight hint of arrogance, in a good way. When they put beat China 7-0 and put four past Indonesia, they were cold-blooded even when the result was already beyond doubt.
It was almost as if to take their foot off the pedal would be the truest disrespect they could afford their opponents.
Sooner rather than later, Japan will confirm their place at the next World Cup.
They will then get the chance to show how far they’ve come since two Decembers ago.
Winning it should still be a step too far but reaching the quarterfinals for the first time is a must.
A semifinal appearance, and the Samurai Blue would certainly show they are on the right track to the ultimate goal — even if it might take until 2050 to be realised

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