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Let’s make some forecasts for the Seminoles’ season
Florida State, after losing ten players to the NFL Draft and multiple others to the portal and graduation, returns just 56.4% of its production from last season. While a roster full of new faces and a schedule that includes new conference members and high-profile matchups makes the team difficult to predict, trends highlighted during spring camp and established during Mike Norvell’s tenure can give us a glimpse into what to expect.
And with the minutes ticking down until the Seminoles take the field in Ireland, there’s no time better than to call some shots and make some forecasts for the 2024 season. While I do not expect all of these to happen, here are four bold and four safe predictions for Florida State this year.
1. Malik Benson will be a 1,000-yard receiver
The Alabama transfer looked head and shoulders over the rest of the wide receiver room in the spring, consistently gaining separation. He came out ahead of an injury scare during the spring game, setting himself up for a dominant fall camp and a momentous start to the season.
However, he should reach this milestone because of the talent around him. DJ Uiagalelei’s first read will go No. 10’s way each time in crucial situations. The rest of the receiving core struggled with drops, chemistry, and physicality, all strengths to Benson’s game. Defenses may roll coverages Benson’s way, but Mike Norvell’s specialty is finding ways to put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. After spring camp, Benson seems like the only one with that characteristic — and that’s why he’ll become the first Seminoles receiver to hit 1000 yards since 2019.
2. Brock Glenn will start at least one game this season
DJ Uiagalelei is 6’5’’ and 250 pounds, and in person looks more like a freight train than a quarterback. Durability should not be an issue for him, but accuracy and expectations might.
Mike Norvell wants incoming transfers to earn their spots, so Brock Glenn took first-team reps at the beginning of spring, and it was night and day compared to the ACC Championship game. Another offseason learning in the offense gave him a heightened set of confidence, and he took a more prominent leadership role after being a freshman last season. At 6’2’’, 215 pounds, he has the build of a college quarterback with athleticism to extend plays and make difficult throws down the field as he gains the maturity to lead a team.
Meanwhile, Uiagalelei had moments of brilliance along with moments of head-scratchers. For every gorgeous deep ball, there was a gimme that he wished he had back. His intangibles are perfect for this team as his demeanor steadies the ship compared to the energetic Norvell, and his ability to run the ball at his size will make a difference in the run-first offense. However, I question how much difference his physicality makes for this particular team. If none of his receivers can get open down the field, then no matter how strong his arm is, the ball cannot reach them. When teams load up to stop the run, his size will not go very far down the field. Glenn could provide the team a spark during their difficult stretch in the middle of the season, and his command of the playbook and accuracy may lead to a better fit, at least for one game.
3. Florida State will be a single-digit betting favorite in half of their games
Florida State‘s schedule is being undervalued. Two September games against Memphis and SMU are not going to be easy. They were each ten-win teams last season and returned their coach, quarterback, and other key contributors on both sides of the ball. Both feature storylines off the field as FSU travels to SMU for their first-ever matchup and Memphis of course being Norvell’s previous stop.
Later in the season, Clemson returns a vaunted front seven that may be the best in the conference before the Seminoles travel to Durham for a sleepy Friday night game against the Duke Blue Devils and new quarterback Maalik Murphy, who exploded during his short stint as Texas’ QB in 2023.
Florida State and Miami look to be a coin flip on paper, with DraftKings currently listing the game as a pick ‘em, and then the Noles head north to play in frigid South Bend in the middle of November (FSU is currently a 3.5-point underdog vs. Notre Dame). The Seminoles finish the season with Florida, who may be reeling after facing the toughest late-season schedule any team has played in years. FSU is considered an 11-point favorite right now, but that game is always close against a roster that boasts talent in certain areas.
4. Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. each finish with double-digit sacks this season
Last year, Jared Verse finished with nine sacks, and Patrick Payton had seven with worse depth and a higher snap count than Mike Norvell wanted.
This season, Payton gained another 15 pounds, and Marvin Jones Jr. looks like a carbon copy of former FSU and current New York Jets defensive end Jermaine Johnson.
During the spring, they produced a variety of pass-rush moves that kept the FSU tackles off balance and led to multiple plays blown dead during practice each session. Both of them are playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to enter the first round, and Jones Jr. proves that Georgia made a mistake not playing him.
While their pass rush skills are undeniable, they should have plenty of opportunities to get after the quarterback because of the improved run defense this season. Grady Kelly and Sione Lolohea are run-stuffing machines who set hard edges and win inside with technique. The secondary, led by Shyheim Brown, is looking to increase their physicality this season and has no issues flying off blocks and making tackles in space. In the middle, DJ Lundy and Cam Riley corral ball carriers for breakfast are more adaptable to fill gaps and punish running backs. Run defense became an issue at times last year, but Norvell and Adam Fuller ensured the holes were plugged.
Payton and Jones Jr. will be the beneficiaries on the third and long.
1. Florida State will have two running backs over 500 yards
2020 and 2023 are the only two seasons where FSU hasn’t seen two backs pass 500 yards under Norvell — last season, Trey Benson was the only ball carrier over 500 yards, but Lawrance Toafili came 37 yards short.
As questionable as the passing game looked in the spring, Florida State’s ability to put the ball on the ground became their identity — true to the typical identity of a Norvell-coached team. Toafili, the ACC Championship MVP who has logged 400-plus yard seasons in three of his four years in Tallahassee, took another step as a leader during the offseason and is primed to take the mantle of feature back after years of experience in the system. The addition of Roydell Williams, who had 560 yards for the Alabama Crimson Tide last season, gives the ground game an additional element capable of wearing down defenses. A strong offensive line bodes well for running game success. Maurice Smith anchors the unit for his sixth season, and the first eight players in the two-deep have played multiple seasons in college football.
2. Shyheim Brown leads the defense in tackles
In spring practice, no player stood out more than Shyheim Brown. His attitude, work ethic, and leadership filled the void of the upperclassman who departed last season. On the field, he is the most integral piece to a stout season on the defensive side of the ball. Adam Fuller will play Brown for every snap in 2024 if he is healthy, as the safety takes the next step in his development. However, his calling card comes from his versatility, where he lines up at every position on the field and acts as a fireman by putting out danger around him. Whether Fuller finds a consistent partner for Brown remains to be seen, but his consistency should compensate for the deficit.
Tatum Bethune led the team in tackles last season with 71, and the following two players behind him were linebackers. Brown ended with 53, the fourth-best on the squad.
Next season, he vaults to the top.
3. Florida State’s offensive line becomes a Joe Moore finalist
Five years after being the worst offensive line in college football, Alex Atkins’ group can become the best. The depth and talent along the line of scrimmage rivals any in the country as four starters return from this unit that finished as a semifinalist last season. The health of Robert Scott Jr. is the only question mark, but Darius Washington earned All-ACC honors last season and should have no problem filling in. The transfers TJ Ferguson and Richie Leonard are ready-made guards to fill the void of Casey Roddick and D’mitri Emmanuel, and transfer Jacob Rizy could be a pleasant fall surprise as he enrolled in the summer from Harvard. Atkins’ suspension for the first three games may affect whether or not the unit decides to rotate, but after the success they found last season, it deserves to stay together.
4. Florida State will win double-digit games this season
The schedule should receive more attention than it does, but Florida State still starts the season on the inside track for a playoff berth.
Trips to Miami and Notre Dame will be challenging, especially as Norvell seeks his first-ever win against the Irish, but those teams have found ways to lose close games in recent years and FSU should win at least one of those matchups. After beating Clemson last season, the Seminoles enter this year’s matchup as the better team on paper once again — this time with confidence after securing a win in the series and in the confines of Doak. There are plenty of chances and distractions where an unexpected underdog can sneak a win in, from international trips to Friday and Monday matchups, but Mike Norvell’s culture should win out. The last two seasons have solidified the team’s resolve and approach, from player to coach, and now is the chance to turn a trend into tried-and-true consistent success.
Aug. 24: vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
Sep. 2 (Monday): vs. Boston College Eagles, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Sep. 14: vs. Memphis Tigers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Sep. 21: vs. Cal Golden Bears, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Sep. 28 :at SMU Mustangs, Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Oct. 5: vs. Clemson Tigers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Oct. 18 (Friday): at Duke Blue Devils, Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Oct. 26: at Miami Hurricanes, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Nov. 2: vs. North Carolina Tar Heels, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Nov. 9: at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
Nov. 23: vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Nov. 30: vs. Florida Gators, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
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