Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield gets a phenomenal matchup with the Raiders this week. Vegas ranks 26th in EPA per dropback allowed and their opponents have exploited that with a pass rate over expected that now rivals what the Ravens have faced. In turn, Vegas has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Mayfield is the QB6 in points per game and could move up the ranks after Week 14.
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Start: Will Levis, Titans
Levis has played much better (for fantasy purposes) following his extended injury-related absence that was not at all affected by his previous poor play. Since returning, Levis is averaging 240 passing yards and 17.5 fantasy points per game. Levis hasn’t lost his aggressive streak after the time off though. He is eighth in deep throw rate and second in PFF passing grade on deep throws over the past month. Jacksonville ranks 31st in YPA allowed on deep throws and has given up the fourth-most explosive passing plays this year.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Cousins gets a nightmare matchup with the Vikings’ blitz-crazed defense this week. The Vikings’ aggressive philosophy on defense allows them to get to the quarterback in record time. They rank fifth in both quick pressure rate and unlocked pressure rate. Cousins has the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate when pressured in less than 2.5 seconds and is 18th in PFF passing grade under those circumstances. He has been terrible against all flavors of pressure this year, ranking outside the top 20 in PFF passing grade on the back of a top-five turnover-worthy play rate.
Sportsbooks are seeing this as a problem for Cousins as well. The Falcons opened the week as slight road favorites. They are now 5.5-point underdogs. Their 20-point implied team total is lower than offenses led by Cooper Rush and Will Levis.
Sit: Justin Herbert, Chargers
This brings me no pleasure, but it’s not a great week for Herbert’s fantasy outlook. Vegas has the road underdog Bolts with a 19.75 team total. The Chargers had a +3% pass rate over expected over four games coming out of their bye. They have yet to hit that mark once in their past four games. They have a -1% PROE during that stretch, pushed into the red by a run-heavy game versus Tennessee.
Chiefs opponents have had a negative PROE this year and the game itself has an unfathomably low total of 43 points. All signs point toward an ugly scoring environment for Herbert on Sunday.
Start: Isaac Guerenedo, 49ers
The 49ers piled 18.3 carries and 1.4 catches per game on Jordan Mason’s plate in seven starts before Christian McCaffrey returned. Both CMC and Mason are done for the year, leaving that role to just Guerendo. Recently waived and then claimed Israel Abanikanda and practice squad call-up Patrick Taylor are the only other backs on the roster. Guerendo is a fourth-round rookie who posted mind-bending numbers at the combine.
His team is favored by 3.5 points at home this week. With six teams on bye, Guerendo is flirting with an RB1 ranking in his first start.
Start: Braelon Allen, Jets
Breece Hall is listed as doubtful, a designation he has not shot at playing through. That leaves Allen and fellow rookie Isaiah Davis to man the New York backfield. Davis saw his first carry in over a month last week while catching all three of his targets. He will likely see work on passing downs with Allen getting the bulk of the carries. The Dolphins have faced a below-average pass rate over expected this year and are giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. Allen, who PFF has graded as a top-15 runner, should be able to take advantage of the matchup on Sunday.
Sit: Gus Edwards, Chargers
Edwards didn’t do much in his first start with J.K. Dobbins sidelined. He ran six times for 32 yards and caught one pass. Edwards only saw 35 percent of the Chargers’ carries and ran a route on 32 percent of Herbert’s dropbacks. Edwards is near or at the bottom of the league in every rushing efficiency metric and is now ceding work to rookie Kimani Vidal, who saw four carries in Week 13. A road game versus the Chiefs is not the spot to roll him out as even an RB3.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Panthers have played the role of plucky underdog admirably over the past month, but the house of cards is set to come crashing down. The Panthers are 13-point dogs to the Eagles and their 16.5 implied team total is easily the lowest of the week. Hubbard started giving up a meaningful share of the backfield work to Jonathon Brooks in Week 13. The rookie saw 29 percent of Carolina’s carries. Hubbard’s carry share fell to 57 percent, his lowest mark since Week 3.
jonathon brooks will be very, very fun
already creating yards on his own pic.twitter.com/YqrYHL7K8B
Brooks only earned more work with how well he played. Hubbard is still the clear No. 1 back in Carolina, but his declining workload will be hard to stomach in a bad matchup with Philly.
Start: Elijah Moore, Browns
Jerry Jeudy’s 235-yard eruption overshadowed Moore’s Week 13 breakout, but fantasy managers should be more than comfortable getting both in their lineups. Moore went for 111 yards on eight grabs. Both wideouts have a 21 percent target share since Amari Cooper was traded. Moore’s lower-aDOT role has still resulted in 97 air yards per game. He has finished as a WR2 or better in four of his past six games. Jameis Winston came here to throw 40 rockets and chew bubblegum. You’ll never believe this, but he’s all out of bubblegum.
Start: Khalil Shakir, Bills
Shakir has been the Bills’ best receiver all season and is finally being treated as such. He is top-10 in yards per route run, targets per route run, and yards after the catch per reception. Shakir has a 27 percent target share over his past six games. He has finished as a WR2 or better four times in that stretch. Even with Keon Coleman possibly returning this week, Shakir has been too good to take targets away from.
Sit: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Hill is still hanging around the WR2 ranks this week, but he’s nowhere near the must-start fantasy player he was last year. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, Hill has earned 19 percent of the Dolphins’ targets. He has been targeted on just a fifth of his routes. Hill is the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game and the WR23 in actual points per game since Tua’s return. Hill isn’t a clear fade, but fantasy managers who hit on Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, and other high-end WR2s may have the luxury of sitting Hill this week.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
Hopkins has peaked at a 21 percent target share during his time in Kansas City. That game, all the way back in Week 9, is his only contest with a target share in the 20s since being traded. He has only run a route on 57 percent of the team’s passing plays over his past four games. In a low-total AFC West matchup with the Chargers, he can stay on the bench for another week.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
It’s not ground-breaking to say you should be starting Smith, but the list of tight ends who project for more points than him is stunningly small. Since Tua returned, Smith is the TE5 in both expected and actual points per game. He has a 22 percent target share and is averaging 16 points per game over his past six contests. His role is also growing. Smith is up to a 24 percent target share with 24.4 points per game over the past three weeks.
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
If you’re looking for a deep cut at tight end, Johnson is your guy. Taysom Hill exited Week 13 with a season-ending knee injury. Johnson, in turn, logged a 19 percent target share on 79 percent of the routes. Both marks were season-highs for the veteran tight end. The Saints are down to practice squad players at receiver, meaning Johnson—a former receiver himself—is likely their best pass-catching option outside of Alvin Kamara. Expect plenty of targets for him to close out the year.
Sit: Cade Otton, Bucs
Otton has turned back into a pumpkin with Mike Evans healthy. During his short-lived stint as the Bucs’ No. 1 pass-catcher, Otton earned 27 percent of the team’s targets and 26 percent of the air yards. Those numbers have plummeted to 16 and eight in two games with Evans back in the lineup. Otton is still in the TE2 ranks for Week 14 but has run out of TE1 juice as the fantasy playoffs approach.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
With six teams on bye and tight end being a nightmare of a position, there aren’t many easy fades. Kincaid is questionable for Week 14. If he suits up, I’m giving him at least a week on the bench. Kincaid ranks 11th in target share among tight ends but plays on a team that sits comfortably outside of the top 20 offenses in total passing volume, meaning his raw target totals are less impressive. He is the currently TE20 by points per game.
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