Good Morning Footclan! Welcome to the penultimate edition of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag for the 2024 season! As we do each and every Saturday here at Ballers’ HQ, I have scoured the depths of The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and selected a handful of your questions ahead of the most important week of the season to date! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you—the loyal members of the Footclan.
Everyone still standing? We’re through the wild card rounds of the fantasy playoffs and now it’s time for the semifinals! Whether you already had a bye, won your matchup by 30 points, or squeaked it due to that last-second interception thrown by Desmond Ridder on Monday Night Football… it doesn’t matter, all that’s important is you’re still in with a shot of taking home that #FootclanTitle! The season is nearly over but the injuries keep on piling up—we’ve already lost David Montgomery and Sincere McCormick ahead of the weekend’s matchups, and it looks as if another superstar RB in the form of Alvin Kamara will miss out as well… but where does his de facto backup Kendre Miller rank as the Saints head to Lambeau on Monday night? We’ve got the answer to that, and much more below… so let’s dive right in!
Who has been the biggest fantasy disappointment at each position this year?  (non-injury related) – Trogdor
Answer: Take a seat Trogdor, how long have you got? The obvious answer of course is… everyone I drafted in my League of Record—but I’m assuming you want a little more analysis than that, and more importantly… some names. So, now that the year is almost over, let’s take a look at some of the guys we had early season hopes for—and spent that oh so valuable draft capital on—yet ended up in the poopy pants club alongside our dear friend Jason Moore.
QB – The temptation to go Anthony Richardson here was real—after all, this is a guy who was going as the consensus QB6 in drafts at the 5.06 and currently sits as the overall QB25 on the season. However, in Richardson’s defense, he is practically still a rookie after playing only two full games of his debut season last year and he also missed the best part of three weeks this year after getting hurt back in Week 4 against the Steelers. Instead, I’ll award this to a man who was drafted ahead of Richardson in the fourth round as the overall QB5—who despite being the QB19 on the year is actually behind the Colts play-caller on a FPPG basis. Have you guessed who it is yet… that’s right, averaging a dismal 13.7 weekly fantasy points despite playing 98% of snaps on the year, I’m talking about Houston’s C.J. Stroud. Despite a top-12 finish in his rookie season, the now sophomore Stroud has put up only three weekly QB1 performances on the year, the same number of times he has eclipsed the 20-point threshold in six-point passing TD leagues… woof.
RB – A special shoutout to Zamir White on this one—drafted as the overall RB24 back in August, White’s 26.3 fantasy points on the season were only 10 more than he put up in the Week 15 matchup against the Chargers last season… impressive. There were big question marks surrounding White in draft season, so we can’t be overly surprised at his failures… the same however cannot be said for a running back who was being taken at the 2.04 as the seventh rusher off the board—step forward Travis Etienne Jr. Sure, Etienne missed two and a half games with a hamstring injury, but his 7.5 FPPG ranks 37th at the position for running backs who have at least 100 carries on the year. The once-workhorse back has seen his share of RB rushing attempts plummet from 75% in 2023, to just 50% on the year so far. A combination of inefficiency and the emergence of Tank Bigsby has seen this backfield turn into a full-blown committee.
WR – Oh how this pains me, but it has to be Tyreek Hill, right? Taken as the first wide receiver off the board—and in some cases the number one pick overall—Hill’s fantasy season has been disappointing, to say the least. While the Cheetah gets a partial Get out of Jail Free card (no pun intended) given the injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, his current season ranking of WR22 just isn’t what fantasy managers were hoping for when they selected the speedster on draft day. With only two weeks as a WR1 and seven outside WR3 territory, it’s been a year to forget for Miami’s superstar wideout. Let’s hope he and Tua are back together next season to recreate some of the fantasy magic that they enchanted us with in 2023.
Half-PPR – D.K. Metcalf or Tyreek Hill?? – Little Giants
Answer: Speaking of disappointing wide receivers—this is quite the start/sit you’ve got yourself heading into semifinals week Little Giants. First things first… congratulations for making it this far if you somehow drafted both Tyreek Hill and D.K. Metcalf—with the likelihood the pair cost you two of your first four picks, you’ve done some incredible work to still be in with a chance of winning a #FootclanTitle!
It’s been far from the type of season we would have hoped for from either of these elite wide receivers. I’ve highlighted Tyreek’s plight above, but for Metcalf, it really has been a Jekyll and Hyde tale of two halves this year. Through seven weeks, the now 27-year-old (happy birthday for last week D.K.) was the overall WR7, and on a 17-game pace of nearly 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns… then for only the second time in his six-year NFL career, D.K. missed a game due to injury, and that’s where it all changed for Metcalf and the passing game in Seattle.
In the five games Metcalf has played following his return from the knee injury that saw him miss the Seahawks’ home defeats to Buffalo and the Rams, he has yet to eclipse the 70-yard mark or—arguably more importantly—find the end zone. His return in Week 11 saw him finish as the overall WR32 against divisional rivals San Francisco—but ever since the 20-17 victory over their NFC West foes, Metcalf’s fantasy finishes have declined week on week, culminating in a WR64 performance against the Packers last time out. 
Where D.K. has faltered, sophomore wideout and former first-round selection Jaxon Smith-Njigba has excelled. While D.K.’s WR32 finish against the 49ers is his best since Seattle’s Week 10 bye, JSN’s WR34 finish in Week 13 is his worst. In the five games they have been on the field together since the bye week, JSN has seen a WR target share of 46%, with a team-high 27% of total targets from Geno Smith. Metcalf’s overall volume hasn’t altered significantly in the back half of the year—but this is JSN’s team now, as the talented receiver finally starts to show us just why the Seahawks invested the 20th overall pick in him at last year’s draft.
The matchup for the Seahawks pass-catchers in Week 16 is as good as it can get, facing the Vikings who are ranked 32nd best (a.k.a. first worst) in FPAE against the position. Miami on the other hand hosts San Francisco who are the second worst matchup for wide receivers in terms of FPAE… but I don’t care. Jaylen Waddle looks set to miss the visit of the 49ers due to a knee injury, and Tua can’t throw it to Jonnu Smith on every play—give me the WR1 in South Beach over the WR2 in Seattle any day of the week.
Hi Ballers! I have Travis Kelce, David Njoku and Mark Andrews. Who should I play at TE this week? Full-PPR – Josh Stallion
Answer: Imagine this question was asked back in September—the bigger question then probably would have been “Why have you got three TE1s on your roster?”. It’s crazy what a huge difference just a few short months can make in fantasy football, isn’t it?
As a David Njoku manager in my own League of Record, I was positively salivating at the prospect of starting him in the fantasy playoffs… sadly for me, I lost out on a playoff spot in a tie-breaker, and sadly for fellow Njoku managers, due to a combination of injury and a quarterback change—his #FootclanTitle winning upside has fallen off a cliff in this past fortnight. After back-to-back TE2 performances in Weeks 13 and 14, the Browns’ target-hogging tight end missed last weekend’s defeat at home to the Chiefs with a hamstring injury, and at the time of writing, doesn’t look a safe bet to suit up for the trip to Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. Even if he receives the all-clear—with Jameis Winston benched and Dorian Thompson-Robinson drawing the start—I’m out.
So, we’re down to two—a straight-up choice between the two men who have dominated the tight end position for almost a decade, finishing as the TE1 in seven of the last eight seasons. Okay, so Kelce accounts for six of those, but Andrews has still been an absolute beast since he entered the league in 2018. If you’d have reassured me back in August that both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews would play in every game of the season through 15 weeks, I would have assumed that they would be a clear TE1 & TE2 in the rankings (well possibly top three, depending on Sam LaPorta’s performance)—however, despite their respective clean bills of health, the pair sit back-to-back as the TE5 and TE6 in total fantasy points, dropping to TE7 and TE9 when adjusting to FPPG.
Perhaps time is beginning to catch up with Kelce and Andrews, or possibly it is the emergence of young superstars such as Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Jonnu Smith(?), that is pushing them down the rankings—but either way, both still have big roles to play as we continue through the fantasy playoffs.
The tale of the tape over these last few weeks would certainly seem to favor Mark Andrews heading into Week 16. The Ravens’ leader in receiving touchdowns has found the end zone in four of his last five outings, recording a TE1 finish each time in the process. With Baltimore hosting divisional rivals Pittsburgh on Saturday, and the Chiefs welcoming Houston—Andrews not only has the better matchup, but is playing in a game with a higher O/U, and a higher implied team total… but I’m still leaning toward Kelce in this one. Andrews’ success of late has largely come off the back of those previously mentioned touchdowns. Given you’re in a full-PPR setup, I’ve got to lean toward the guy who I am certain will get the most opportunities, and that’s Mr. Kelce.
Season’s greetings, Ballstars! Got to the second round! Do I start Jayden Daniels or Jordan Love this week? – Brooks Could Hold It
Answer: We’ve got a good old-fashioned Andy vs. Jason question here with this start/sit question involving both of their respective Starts of the Week at the quarterback position for Week 16… but which Baller’s choice will come out on top?
In the blue corner, representing Mr. Andrew Holloway, from Green Bay, Wisconsin… he don’t need no WR1, it’s Jordan Love! It’s been a frustrating year for Jordan Love managers—those who grabbed the fifth-year signal caller as the 10th overall QB off the board back in preseason could rightly leave their drafts feeling as if they snagged themselves a bit of a bargain… after all, this was a guy, who finished as the overall QB5 in what was practically his rookie season. While Love may not have fully delivered on his draft capital, he hasn’t absolutely crucified your roster either—his 18.1 FPPG (four-point TD) ranks 10th at the position on the year and he has finished inside the top 12 in exactly 50% of his games. While the former first-round pick has delivered a relatively consistent floor, his upside has been significantly capped in recent weeks by the dominance of Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run game. From Week 5 onward, Jacobs sits behind only Saquon Barkley in total fantasy points, and in his last five games, the former Raider has found the end zone on nine occasions… that’s four more than any other back in the league. Love hasn’t been bad per se… Jacobs has just been that good.
In the red corner, representing Mr. Jason Moore, from the nation’s capital Washington D.C., the rushing rookie himself… Jayden Daniels! What a season so far for the number two overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. While Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record may not be under threat, Robert Griffin III will be watching nervously to see if a fellow Washington draftee can eclipse his 815 rushing yards from his debut year back in 2012. Daniels is just 159 yards short with three games to go, so I am fully expecting a whole load of designed plays for the former LSU Tiger before the end of December in an attempt to grab that record for himself. Daniels has been sensational, guiding the Commanders to a 9-5 record and an excellent chance of making the postseason… even if they were to lose to divisional rivals Philadelphia on Monday night.
Andy, Mike, and Jason all have Jordan Love ranked ahead of Daniels this week, with Love coming in as the consensus QB5 for the visit of New Orleans, with the rookie Daniels at QB9 as Washington hosts the NFC East Champion Eagles… but I am going to go against the grain. While Love certainly has the much easier matchup, the fear of Josh Jacobs running all over the Saints early and often gives me pause on how much I trust the passing game in what is sure to be a one-sided affair. The Commanders will have their work cut out against Philly, but this is a team that can be passed on and gave up almost 80 yards on the ground to another rushing QB just three weeks ago. Sure, Daniels is no Lamar Jackson, but he’s not far off when it comes to running the ball.
It’s playoff time and I’m starting the guy who likely played the bigger part in getting me here… I’m taking the rookie to finish above Love in Week 16.
Hello Ballers! If we find out Alvin Kamara is out before Sunday, do I bench Rachaad White or Tyrone Tracy for Kendre Miller? – Max MPHj
Answer: As a fellow Alvin Kamara manager in a handful of playoff semifinals… you have my condolences Max MPHj… however, you also have my congratulations for being savvy enough to pick up Kendre Miller ahead of the weekend to potentially mitigate your Kamara loss.
It’s not looking too good for the overall RB6 on the season, as his chances of suiting up in Green Bay on Monday night took a significant blow mid-week after what was originally diagnosed as a “groin injury,” leaving him day-to-day, was later confirmed as an abductor issue. Interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi was quoted in his press conference on Thursday saying it was highly unlikely the 29-year-old would see the field this week… with rumors swirling that he may sit out the remainder of the season… no bueno. Kamara leads the league in receiving yards at the position and is only two catches shy of De’Von Achane with 68 grabs from 89 targets—whether it is one week or two, his absence opens the door for sophomore back Kendre Miller to step into the lead role in this Saints backfield, with plenty of opportunities likely available for the 22-year-old, both on the ground and in the passing game.
Miller has looked more than competent in his limited snaps so far this season, averaging 4.6 Y/A on the 28 carries he has seen—but would I be willing to start him ahead of Rachaad White or Tyrone Tracy… I’m not so sure. 
Let’s address Rachaad White first. Not only is White an established NFL running back, but he’s been on somewhat of a heater since Week 7 after a one-week absence through injury. In the nine-week spell since getting back on the field, White is the overall RB11 in half-PPR formats—that’s ahead of Derrick Henry, David Montgomery… and Alvin Kamara. Sure, White has Bucky Irving to contend with in the Bucs’ backfield, but we’ve seen plenty of evidence that these two can coexist, and although the rookie is emerging as the leader of this tandem—White still carries plenty of fantasy value due to his role in the passing game. Irving has been limited in practice all week with a back and hip injury, and if he were to miss this week’s trip to Dallas, White would immediately vault into RB1 territory. White is in for me well ahead of Miller.
Now, what about Tyrone Tracy Jr.? The talented rookie sits firmly atop the Giants’ depth chart after a string of impressive performances from Week 5 onward. Despite the G-Men losing nine of the 10 games he has been the starter, Tracy has finished as an RB2 or better on six occasions… four times as an RB1. The Giants’ season is all but over, and with the organization being firmly in control of the number-one pick in next year’s NFL draft, it’s unlikely they are going to want to put themselves in any kind of winning position that could jeopardize that prize. That said, they may not have any choice in the matter as they head to Georgia to face an Atlanta Falcons team with a new face under center in the form of totally not the most stupid draft pick ever Michael Penix Jr. With Captain Kirk’s phasers set to benched, Penix will be looking to show the world just why the Falcons invested a first-round selection in him mere weeks after inking Kirk Cousins to a multi-million dollar deal. That motivation, coupled with Drew Lock back in at QB for the Giants, may limit Tracy’s opportunities on Sunday afternoon.
The fantasy playoffs aren’t a time for risk-taking… unless absolutely necessary, we don’t know what—if anything—we’ll get from Miller on Monday Night Football. Take the safe route and go with Rachaad against the Cowboys. Good luck!
In the fantasy playoffs, would you rather play a good defense in a bad matchup or a bad defense in a great matchup?- Ridley Me This
Answer: A great one to finish on ahead of the all-important playoff semifinals! There are some very tasty DST matchups this weekend with Green Bay hosting Spencer Rattler and the Kamara-less Saints, Atlanta welcoming Drew Lock and the 2-12 New York Giants into Georgia, and the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Cleveland Browns in an all-Ohio AFC North clash. Looking at these particular matchups, there seems to be a common thread… backup quarterbacks and anemic offenses.
Heading into Week 16, New Orleans is the 10th easiest matchup for opposing defenses in terms of FPAE, the Giants the fourth easiest, and the Browns behind only the Tennessee Titans, allowing a whopping 4.6 average fantasy points above expectation each week to rival DSTs. Now, obviously, the ideal situation is to play a good defense against a bad offense (Hello Green Bay!)—but that simply may not be possible, so if you’ve missed out on the Packers for Week 16, what can you do?
The simple answer is… know your league scoring!
Every league is different—in some formats, a DST who can shut out their opponents—or keep the scoring low—are the best option each and every week… others favor sacks, tackles, and interceptions. In either case, it’s best to look at your league scoring rules and figure out just how DSTs in your setup can score the most points. If sacks are rewarded heavily, then target a DST playing against a team with a terrible offensive line; if INTs score big, make sure you’re picking up a defense going up against a backup or third-string quarterback… and remember, if all else fails, just grab whoever is playing against the Titans!
Merry Christmas Footclan!
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