Good morning Footclan! Hit the intro music… it’s playoff time! Welcome to the latest edition of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag and as we enter Week 15—it’s a playoff special! As we do each and every Saturday here at Ballers’ HQ, I have taken a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and tried my darndest to give you the best possible insights ahead of this week’s games! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you—the loyal members of the Footclan.
We’ve made it Footclan, the fantasy football playoffs have finally arrived! If you’re sitting pretty with a bye week as the other managers in your league have gone into full-tilt mode, congratulations… but just remember—it will be your turn next week! As we enter the most important week of the season to date, your start/sit decisions have never been more crucial… and some of the potential options this week on the Discord server have been gross! There are no prizes for second place in fantasy football, so be sure to do whatever it takes in order to advance to the next round of the knockout stages in your quest for a #FootclanTitle… even if that means giving a Viking funeral type send off to some of the players who got you to where you are now in order to pick up that perfect Week 17 DST! We’ve got questions about Old Man Thielen, Eagles wide receivers, a potential league-winning RB out of Sin City… and just what the heck is going on with the Texans’ passing game? There’s so much to talk about… so let’s dive right in!
Yo yo yo Ballers! Full-PPR, how bold of a move would it be to bench Marvin Harrison Junior for Old Man Adam Thielen…should I do it? No, I can’t do it…can I? Please help! – I hate Breece Hall
Answer: Just double-checking to make sure this question didn’t come in from a Jason Moore burner account… it didn’t, okay then, let’s take a look.
It feels like almost every week we get one of these very legitimate start/sit questions involving a big-name stud, and another player who for large parts of the season we’d consider to be a J.A.G.—and this week is no different it seems. It’s almost inconceivable to think that in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, we are in the middle of an existential crisis that sees us debating whether to start a wideout taken as the consensus WR8 in fantasy drafts… or 34-year-old Adam Thielen. The tale of the tape for these two pass-catchers couldn’t be any different—in Marvin Harrison Jr. we have a 22-year-old rookie taken with the fourth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft out of one of the nation’s elite collegiate programs at Ohio State… and in Adam Thielen, we have an 11-year career veteran who entered the league as an UDFA from a Division II college while a just-turned 12-year-old Harrison Jr. was still in middle-school. However, as shrewd fantasy managers know—when it comes to this late in the season and it’s win or go home… what your name is, and how much draft capital was invested in you counts for nothing.
It’s been tough sledding for Marv since his breakout games back in Week 2. In the 11 games that have followed his 130-yard and two-TD performance in the 41-10 blowout win over the Rams, Harrison Jr. and his quarterback Kyler Murray have only combined for one solitary triple-digit yardage effort—a 111-yard effort in the road victory over Miami in Week 8. That game started a patented Mike Wright red light/green light run of fantasy finishes for Marv, with a stretch of games that saw him end the week as the WR5, WR80, WR15, WR51, WR22, and WR43… yikes.
Adam Thielen on the other hand has returned from a prolonged spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury (or was it just a really long nap?) and gone right back to doing what he does best—going on a multi-week tear for his fantasy managers. We’ve seen this before from the veteran; early last season he had a five-game stretch from Weeks 2-6 where he was the overall WR2 in fantasy… one singular fantasy point behind Tyreek Hill. Thielen appears to be well-rested and is the undeniable top target for a resurgent Bryce Young in Carolina.
Week 15 sees both teams having favorable matchups at the wide receiver position, with Arizona hosting New England (19th in PAE) and Carolina welcoming the Cowboys (23rd PAE). The Cardinals have a slightly higher implied team total with 26 to the Panthers’ 23, and we are set to see a little bit rain come kickoff time in Charlotte, which could impact the passing game. To answer your original question, it wouldn’t be that bold to start Thielen over Harrison… but I guess you have to make bold decisions to win #FootclanTitles—give me Old Man Thielen.
What is your level of concern for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against Pittsburgh this week, and going forward? – Trogdor
Answer: It’s been a difficult few weeks for Eagles wide receivers. Since Week 11, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have had one solitary top-30 performance between them—Brown’s WR5 showing against the Rams at SoFi in Week 12… so what’s gone wrong?
Perhaps we shouldn’t be trying to ascertain what has gone wrong in Philadelphia, but rather consider what has gone right… and the answer to that is Mr. Saquon Barkley. Okay, so DaVonta Smith missed two games with a hamstring injury—but prior to his absences for the road games in Los Angeles and Baltimore, Smith was ice cold, finishing as the WR75 against the Cowboys in Dallas, and WR55 a week later at home to the Commanders. In that same period, Saquon has put up weekly performances of RB24, RB2, RB1, RB6, and RB11—he is the offense for the Eagles… and it’s working.
If a rising tide lifts all ships, then an on-fire running back sinks all pass-catchers… and unfortunately for Brown and Smith, there doesn’t seem to be any easing up of the Saquon tsunami on the horizon anytime soon. The Eagles have the 10th easiest remaining strength of schedule at the running back position and the 12th toughest for wideouts—hardly ideal as we enter the fantasy playoffs. If that wasn’t grim enough reading for fantasy managers who were hoping Brown or Smith could guide them to a #FootclanTitle—Philly being likely favorites in each of their remaining matchups won’t make them feel any better about the likelihood of Jalen Hurts airing it out to his top-two targets.
There’s no real reason for the Eagles and Head Coach Nick Sirianni to move away from their run-heavy approach, and why should there be—the last time Jalen Hurts attempted 30 or more passes in a game… the team lost. In the nine games Philadelphia has played (and won) coming out of their Week 5 bye, they have averaged just 21 passing plays per week… the lowest in the National Football League.
Heading into Week 15, the matchup against the Steelers is not one I would be getting overly excited about as a manager of either Eagles wideout. Pittsburgh ranks fourth against the position with a PAE of -4.0, hardly the kind of defense I would be hoping for my WR1 or WR2 to come up against in the fantasy playoffs. A.J. Brown should be fine as a fringe WR1 play this weekend, and good for around 80 yards or so off five or more receptions—DeVonta Smith… I’m not so sure. As much as you shouldn’t let a player’s name make your start/sit decisions—there’s zero chance I am benching Brown in the hunt for a fantasy championship, but expectations have to be tempered. Unfortunately for Smith managers, I don’t feel quite as optimistic about his chances, and last week’s touchdown merely papered over the cracks… he’s riding the pine until I see it consistently, and entering the final three weeks of the season, it may be too little, too late.
Sup Ballers! Alvin Kamara has helped me all year but if Derek Carr is out, can I bench him for Isaac Guerendo or Rico Dowdle during the playoffs? Thanks fellas – Falcon’s KO’d Grandma
Answer: One of the most satisfying draft picks of the 2024 season, Alvin Kamara—despite being 29 years old—continues to deliver for fantasy managers at an elite RB1 level. Super Kamario was one of my favorite mid-round selections back in August, and thank goodness it’s panned out because I have him everywhere. There’s zero doubt that the Saints’ evergreen rusher has played a significant role in getting you to the playoffs… but now that there are #FootclanTitles on the line… can he be trusted?
One of the key metrics we always look for in a fantasy running back is opportunities… and boy has Kamara had plenty of those. Despite being in his eighth season with New Orleans and pushing the big 3-0, Kamara continues to see an elite level usage in this Saints’ offense, averaging almost 24 total touches per game… and it’s rising. Over the first seven weeks of the year, Super Kamario averaged 22 opportunities per week… from Week 8 onwards that’s jumped to almost 26. Much like Saquon in Philadelphia, Kamara is the offense for Darren Rizzi’s team, and with perennial thorn-in-the-side Taysom Hill done for the year, there is nobody left in this locker room who could pose a challenge and lay claim to King Kamara’s crown… or so we thought.
I am less concerned about Derek Carr’s health than that of Alvin Kamara himself. Entering Week 15, the overall RB6 on the year has missed consecutive practices on Wednesday and Thursday with an “undisclosed illness.” I would be lying if I wasn’t slightly concerned about his chances of suiting up this weekend against the Commanders, and would be in full-on denial if I said the growing hype surrounding Kendre Miller doesn’t have me sweating ahead of the fantasy playoffs. The Saints are all but eliminated from postseason contention—they currently have a less than 1% chance of making it to the NFC Wild Card round, so any hopes of a home-field Super Bowl in February are long gone… so why risk next year’s hopes by trotting out your biggest offensive weapon in dead-rubbers when you have an exciting young talent who’s finally healthy enough to show what he can do on an NFL field?
The bottom line is this—if Kamara is playing, I’ll be starting him over pretty much every other running back this week and throughout the playoffs, and I’d advise you to do the same… but if you do nothing else before Sunday’s game against Washington—pick up Kendre Miller and then pray to the fantasy gods you don’t have to play him.
Hey Ballers and ‘Ducers! Can I drop C.J. Stroud to make room for guys with actual upside, or should I hold him to be sure no one else benefits? I also have Bo Nix and Sam Darnold and currently 3rd in my league (it happens to be the Megalabowl). Thank you! – Austin Heckeler
Answer: Cast your mind back to late August—Christian McCaffrey was the consensus 1.01 pick, Chuba Hubbard was falling to the 13th rounds, and the Houston Texans’ sensational sophomore quarterback was being drafted in the fourth round of fantasy drafts as the fifth QB off the boards… what a time to be alive.
To say C.J. Stroud has been disappointing in his second year as an NFL pro would be an understatement—sure, he’s had to ensure five games without lead receiver Nico Collins, and of course Stefon Diggs was lost to the IR halfway through the season… but something just seems off for last year’s overall QB11. Through 14 weeks, Stroud is on a 17-game pace of 4,076 passing yards and 20 touchdowns—just shy of the 4,108/23 mark he set as a rookie—but here’s the thing… he achieved that line in only 15 games last season. There’s no denying the passing game in Houston has taken a major step backward this year, and while some of that is on Stroud and his receivers (I’m looking at you Tank Dell), a much larger influence has been the emergence of an elite rushing game, thanks to the ever-consistent, and ever-dominant Mr. Joe Mixon.
In the nine full games he has started this season, Mixon has finished as an RB1 in eight of them (I am discounting Week 2 where he left halfway through with an ankle injury). In contrast, over the course of those same nine games, C.J. Stroud has finished as a QB1 exactly one time… can you guess which game that was? Stroud’s QB11 finish in the Week 12 loss at home to Tennessee was the first time he cracked the top 12 at the position since Week 1… it was also the only time Joe Mixon failed to record an RB1 finish—can we see the pattern here?
It would take an injury crisis at the QB position like we have never seen before for me to trust Stroud as we head into the fantasy playoffs. The Texans have the 14th toughest remaining SOS for quarterbacks, with this week’s matchup against the Dolphins (4th in PAE) a particular concern. If you already have two much more promising options on your roster in Sam Darnold and Bo Nix, then cut ties with Stroud and stash a high-upside receiver or a potential league-winning insurance policy on your bench. Remember, The Megalabowl adopts strict Highlander rules when it comes to crowning a champion… there can be only one!
I just scooped up Tank Dell off of the waiver wire…did I jump on a landmine? It’s him or Jameson Williams this week as my WR3.. – Ed Spatchcocule
Answer: As a fellow Tank Dell manager, welcome to the party… it’s a living nightmare!
I fully get where you’re coming from with the pickup—we’re entering the business end of the season and that waiver wire is starting to look pretty thin… particularly at the WR position with regards to those you would feel comfortable starting on any given week. Dell is still a big name among wideouts—that will happen when you finish your rookie season as the overall WR9 in FPPG… but with only one top-12 week on the year, and only a pair of touchdowns to his credit—he’s not a startable asset for any championship-caliber team.
Dell is on a 17-game pace of 61 receptions for 770 yards and three touchdowns this season… a far cry from his rookie campaign which had him on a trajectory to finish the year with 80 grabs for 1,205 yards and 12 scores if it were not for a fractured fibula in Week 13. The sophomore pass-catcher has failed to deliver for fantasy managers following their investment of a fifth-round pick back in August, currently sitting as the WR51 on the season—and with his most recent weekly finishes being at WR46, WR43, WR32, and WR83… any hope of Dell making any significant contribution to your team is fading faster than the 49ers’ hopes of making the postseason (sorry Falcon).
Hopefully, you didn’t spend any of your remaining FAAB on Tank, but even so—it’s time to cut your losses and drop him right back onto the waiver wire for some other unsuspecting manager to scoop up. Jameson Williams is a high-risk/high-reward play as your WR3… but at least there is a reward. Dell is just risk… and sadness—let him go, and good luck in the playoffs.
Hey Ballers and Ducers! I need a win to make it into the playoffs in a Half-PPR league. Who would you start as a RB2 behind Jahmyr Gibbs – Jonathan Taylor or Sincere McCormick? – Chubbs
Answer: What an amazing narrative the Sincere McCormick “fantasy championship winner” story arc is going to be. An undrafted free agent out of Texas-San Antonio, McCormick spent the entirety of his rookie season on the IR—missing the full year after tearing both his ACL and LCL in mini-camp back in the summer of 2022. Returning in 2023, the still 22-year-old spent the full season on the Raiders practice squad, kept off of the depth chart by Josh Jacobs, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, and playoff darling Zamir White. Now, in 2024, the age of McCormick has arrived—and along with it, the very realistic possibility of lightning striking twice and Las Vegas giving us a #FootclanTitle-winning RB.
McCormick has looked very competent with his limited workload over the last three weeks—his 32 total carries have resulted in 175 yards on the ground (5.5 Y/A), enough for Sincere to creep into RB3 territory, and for Raiders’ Head Coach Antonio Pierce to name him as the starter moving forward… even with the likely return of Alexander Mattison for this weekend’s visit of Atlanta. While I am confident Sincere will definitely provide fantasy value throughout the playoffs—I can’t in good faith start him ahead of Jonathan Taylor in Week 15. The Colts’ undisputed number-one back has had his struggles of late, but the volume alone is enough to plug Taylor into my line-up over McCormick—with Indy’s lead rusher averaging over 21 total opportunities per game since returning from an ankle injury back in Week 8.
Neither team faces a particularly alluring matchup this weekend, with Taylor and the Colts traveling to Mile High to take on Denver, and Las Vegas welcoming Captain Kirk Cousins and the Falcons to Sin City. Both teams are four-point dogs, both teams have an implied team total of 20 points, but only one team is still playing for anything other than pride. With the Colts knowing a victory over the Broncos could take them to within one game of the Texans at the top of the AFC South, and the passing game struggling to get going under Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor could be in for a bumper workload as Indy pushes for the playoffs. I sincerely believe that McCormick will be an RB2 with upside against both Jacksonville and New Orleans in Weeks 16 and 17… but for the fantasy wild card round, I’m rolling with J.T.—good luck!
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