With just a handful of games remaining until the fantasy postseason begins, fantasy managers are either working to lock up a better seed in their playoff bracket or scrambling to get themselves back into position to even have a seat at the table. When it comes down to the stretch of the fantasy season, getting those lineups set just right is the most crucial part of each week. Luckily I’m here to walk through matchups at each position that could be the difference in getting that big victory this week or losing your way into the Toilet Bowl.
As always, make the most use of Andy, Mike, and Jason’s rankings before getting that final lineup set this week!
QB12
After a slow start for fantasy, Caleb Williams turned things around by finishing as a top-10 QB in three of four games before the Bears’ bye in Week 7. During that stretch, Williams threw 100% of his TDs on the season. Unfortunately, Williams wasn’t able to keep that trend going last week with a juicy matchup against a Commanders defense that seemed prime for another big week from the rookie. A development for Williams’ fantasy contributions has been his uptick in rushing yards where he’s averaged 43 yards per game in his last three matchups. Whenever Williams can pair those rushing yards with two TDs, he’s a top-five QB.
If Williams is going to get back on track, a matchup with the Cardinals should provide a great opportunity. Arizona’s defense has allowed the sixth-most passing yards on the season and is one of just six teams allowing at least eight yards per completion. For fantasy though, they’ve been a much tougher matchup than fantasy managers might expect. On the season, the Cardinals have only allowed three top-10 QB finishes and haven’t given up one in three of their last four games, but are still averaging 19.1 points per game to opposing fantasy QBs. Williams will have every chance to get back on the right fantasy track but fantasy managers might temper expectations about having a big fantasy day.
Kurt would play Williams over: Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. Chicago
QB17
Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield is the QB2 on the season. In his eight games so far, Mayfield has only finished outside of the top-eight QBs once this season and has scored 20+ points six times. Despite losing his top two receiving options, Mayfield still threw the ball 50 times last week, finishing with 330 passing yards and three TDs. The best part of Mayfield’s situation is that the Buccaneers’ defense is allowing 26 points per game, so the need for him to continue at his current pace will be necessary down the stretch of the season which can be beneficial for his fantasy output.
There’s plenty of reason to doubt Mayfield’s continued fantasy output given the lack of weapons he’s working with, but a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Week 9 might be enough to make fantasy managers think about streaming another option. Kansas City has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards in the league this season but has kept teams in check against the big play, allowing the fewest passing completions of over 20 yards. In their last five games, the Chiefs have only allowed one top-10 fantasy QB so Mayfield will have his work cut out for him when it comes to continuing his hot streak in fantasy lineups. Mayfield has been great for fantasy managers this season, but this might be the week to shift gears.
Kurt would prefer to play: Joe Flacco (IND) at Minnesota
RB23
One of the best late-round values for fantasy managers this season has been the resurgence of J.K. Dobbins in the new Chargers offense. Dobbins is clearly the main RB in the Los Angeles offense that prioritizes running the ball seeing 65% of the teams’ rushing attempts on the year, though they have opened up their passing attack over the last few weeks. While Dobbins has finished as a top-20 RB in four of his seven games, he has done so by reaching the end zone in each one. In games when Dobbins isn’t reaching pay dirt, he hasn’t finished better than the RB29. Better yet, in only one of those top-20 finishes, Dobbins hasn’t had a run over 20 yards.
While it feels like Dobbins may be becoming matchup-dependent, he may have the right matchup against the Browns this week. Cleveland has been strong against fantasy RBs this season, allowing 3.7 points lower than expectation against the position on the season. One area the Browns have been susceptible is against the big play. The Browns have allowed the most 20+ yard runs in the league this season while Dobbins is one of just three players in the league that has three rushes of 40+ yards this season. Dobbins has been one of the more consistent RB2 options for fantasy managers this season and should continue to be that option again this week.
Kurt would play Dobbins over: James Conner (ARI) vs. Chicago
RB31
Just in time for Halloween, it feels like Javonte Williams might have come back from the fantasy dead over the last few weeks. Williams has been a top-36 RB in four of his last five games including two top-20 finishes. What’s more encouraging for Williams’ continued fantasy relevance is the 63% of the RB rushing attempts for the Broncos since Week 4 and the 100% of rushing TDs for the team’s RBs as well. It feels like Javonte has re-established himself as the lead back in what’s been a surprisingly good offense to start the year.
The true test as to exactly how effective the Broncos’ running game is will come this week against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense has been the best against the run in total rushing yards and yards per carry and is the only defense in the league to only allow one run of over 20 yards on the season. For fantasy, that’s turned into just four total top-24 RB finishes on the season, though they have given up three in their last four games. Regardless of who’s leading the Broncos’ backfield, it’s probably best to avoid this matchup with Williams this week if possible.
Kurt would prefer to play: Raheem Mostert (MIA) at Buffalo
RB22
Despite being viewed as a short-term answer for most fantasy rosters, Chuba Hubbard has been extremely valuable for fantasy managers in one of the worst offenses in the league starting the year as the RB12. Hubbard rattled off five straight top-24 RB finishes from Week 3-7 where he was averaging just over 20 opportunities per game and 17 fantasy points. What’s concerning for Hubbard’s fantasy relevance is the return of Bryce Young to the starting QB role for the Panthers. All of Hubbard’s top-24 fantasy weeks came while Andy Dalton was starting for Carolina, so a long-term absence from the lineup could really change how fantasy managers should be viewing Hubbard from week to week.
While Hubbard’s fantasy relevance has been surprising, so has the ability for fantasy RBs to produce against the Saints’ defense. In 2023, New Orleans’ defense allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs just three times, but has already matched that total this season in just eight games. The Saints have allowed the second-most rushes over 20 yards and five top-20 RB finishes in their last four games. It’s tough to bet on a Panthers offense being competent with Young under center, but Hubbard could still be a strong flex option for fantasy managers this week.
Kurt would play Hubbard over: Josh Jacobs (GB) vs. Detroit
WR30
The offense in Las Vegas has been hard to watch this season, but the return of Jakobi Meyers to the lineup injected some life into the Raiders’ passing attack last week. After missing two games with an ankle injury, Meyers led the Raiders in targets against the Chiefs and was a key piece in their offense that kept this game competitive. While Meyers hasn’t been the fantasy asset that he was in 2023 when he finished top 24 on the season, the departure of Davante Adams should offer him the opportunity to be the 1B behind Brock Bowers in this offense moving forward. In his last four games played, Meyers is averaging eight targets and nearly 60 receiving yards per game while scoring in every other game. That 17-game pace would outproduce his WR24 season from 2023.
Putting any Raider in a fantasy lineup for the rest of the season may be completely dependent on the matchup, but Meyers has a good opportunity ahead of him against the Bengals in Week 9. After starting the year looking like they may be one of the matchups to target with WRs, Cincinnati’s defense has tightened things up in recent weeks on paper. For fantasy though, Cincinnati has allowed a top-20 WR finish in all but two games this season and has allowed eight total in their last seven games. Meyers may not be a flashy name to throw into a fantasy lineup, but there’s upside for him this week for a fantasy roster in need of a flex option.
Kurt would play Meyers over: Ladd McConkey (LAC) at Cleveland
WR32
The trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to Kansas City may have brought his fantasy relevance back to life for 2024. Hopkins joins a Chiefs offense that is in desperate need of a lead WR after Rashee Rice’s season-ending injury. While Hopkins didn’t have a ton of time to get acquainted with the Kansas City offense after being traded, he did play 32% of snaps last week and fantasy managers should expect him to be worked more into the offense this week. What will be interesting to watch is how he’s used by the Chiefs. Fantasy managers shouldn’t necessarily expect him to fill the role Rice left open though. Rice split his snaps between being lined up out wide and in the slot in Kansas City, while Hopkins has only played 31 snaps lined up in the slot all season.
If Hopkins is going to get more integrated into the Chiefs’ passing attack, he’ll have a great matchup to do so this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed the third-most passing yards and fifth-most passing TDs on the season. For fantasy, that’s turned into six top-24 WR finishes in their last five games. If Hopkins can get worked into the Chiefs’ offense more this week, he should be a solid flex option in fantasy lineups.
Kurt would play Hopkins over: Calvin Ridley (TEN) vs. New England
One of the hottest pickups of the week at the WR position was Cedric Tillman after his second straight top-15 finish of the season for the Browns. Tillman’s usage has skyrocketed since Cleveland traded Amari Cooper to the Bills ahead of Week 7, seeing 86% of snaps and a whopping 21 targets. It’s understandable for fantasy managers who have been hesitant about what the Browns’ offense would look like with Jameis Winston under center full-time, but Tillman led the team in receiving yards and topped it off with two TDs on the day. While it may have been game script dependent, it’s also encouraging that Winston threw the ball 41 times on Sunday, a mark that Deshaun Watson had only hit once this season.
For Tillman to continue his hot streak, he’ll have a much more difficult matchup this week against the Chargers. Los Angeles’ defense has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and passing TDs on the season. Even though they’re tough against the pass, the Chargers haven’t been a hard stop for fantasy WRs. On the season, L.A.’s defense has allowed a top-24 WR in four of their last five games and allowed a WR12 finish just last week. For fantasy managers working Tillman into their lineups, expectations may need to be tempered this week, but he should still provide a flex play for Week 9.
Kurt would play Tillman over: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs. Miami
TE11
While the hopes of getting a breakout season from Dalton Kincaid are probably gone, there have been more encouraging weeks from the TE for fantasy managers. Kincaid has only finished inside the top-12 TEs once this season, but he did put in his second-best fantasy day of the season last week after getting into the end zone for just the second time this season against the Seahawks. Even though the production hasn’t fully been there, Kincaid is still getting plenty of looks from Josh Allen, averaging over five targets per game which is seventh among all TEs in the league.
If Kincaid managers are hoping to keep the positive momentum going forward into Week 9, an “all or nothing” kind of matchup against the Dolphins may make decision-making more difficult. On the season, the Dolphins have only allowed opposing teams’ TEs to score more than 5.6 fantasy points twice. To limit the upside of Kincaid even more, Miami hasn’t allowed a passing TD to an opposing TE all season. It’s likely the TE position as a whole will come back down to Earth this week after a TD-fest in Week 8, but if fantasy managers are looking for upside, they may need to stream the position in lieu of Kincaid this week.
Kurt would prefer to play: Zach Ertz (WASH) at N.Y. Giants
TE10
After maybe the best rookie TE season of all time, Sam LaPorta has had a very slow start to his sophomore season. LaPorta has started to turn things around though, finishing as a top-six TE in two of his last three games. If LaPorta stands a chance to get back anywhere close to the production he was capable of as a rookie, he’ll need to continue to see more targets like he did last week against the Titans when he saw a season-high six passes come his direction. With the third-highest expected point total of the week, LaPorta should have plenty of chances to duplicate the type of target share fantasy managers have become accustomed to.
The Lions matchup against the Packers should provide a great opportunity for LaPorta in the passing game again. Green Bay’s defense has allowed 10+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs in five of their last six games and gave up a TD to a TE in three of those weeks. For fantasy managers who are hoping for a second-half turnaround at the TE spot, LaPorta could take another step in the right direction this week.
Kurt would play LaPorta over: Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. Denver
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