While the 2024 NFL regular season is still two months away, it’s July, and the Scott Fish Bowl is underway. Therefore, it’s time to get knee-deep in mock drafts for the upcoming season, and there is no better way to do that than with the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator.
I am picking third in this 12-team, 1QB, and PPR-scoring redraft mock draft. The lineup for this mock draft is one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, two flex, and five bench spots.
My strategy for this mock draft was to go with a heavy Zero-RB draft strategy, waiting until the eighth round to select my first running back. Let’s see how it turned out.
While fantasy experts will debate who should be the first wide receiver drafted until Week 1, Lamb is the clear-cut top guy for me. Despite the slow start, the former Oklahoma star was the WR1 in 2023, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he averaged 27.3 fantasy points per game starting in Week 8 through the end of the year, 5.6 more than any other wide receiver. Sitting out training camp is the only thing that will keep me from drafting Lamb as the first receiver off the board.
Collins was my favorite late-round pick in 2023, and it paid off. While fantasy players must draft him several rounds earlier this year, he is worth the price tag. The former Michigan star led the team in receptions (80), targets (109), receiving yards (1,297), touchdowns (eight), and fantasy points per game (17.4) last season. Tank Dell is coming off a significant leg injury, while Stefon Diggs is on the wrong side of 30 and has had back-to-back years with late-season struggles. Collins is Houston’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver.
After struggling in Carolina for years, Moore had a breakout season in Chicago. He was the WR6, averaging 16.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Moore averaged 8.3 targets and 19.8 fantasy points per game in the 12 contests Justin Fields finished. Now, he gets a significant upgrade at the quarterback position. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen has missed nearly a third of the games over the past two years because of injuries, while Rome Odunze is a rookie. While the Bears improved their receiving core, Moore should be Caleb Williams’ top target.
Normally, I wait to draft a quarterback in a 1QB league. However, Mahomes in the late fourth round is too good of a value. Last year, he had the worst fantasy season of his career, averaging fewer than 20.5 fantasy points per game for the first time as the starting quarterback. Yet, he is my top-ranked quarterback after the Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason. Travis Kelce is healthy after struggling in 2023. Mahomes has the best receiving core of his career at his disposal.
I am a big believer in the great or late tight end draft strategy. However, I love the thought of drafting Kincaid in the fifth round. Buffalo lost their top two wide receivers from last season’s squad, replacing them with Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman. The veteran has been an afterthought the past few years, while the rookie didn’t stand out during mini-camp. Kincaid was outstanding as a rookie with Gabe Davis or Dawson Knox out of the lineup. He should lead the team in targets and touchdowns in 2024.
Johnson was the WR8 in 2021, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he has averaged only 11.1 fantasy points per game over the past two years despite averaging 7.8 targets per contest. The veteran has struggled because of awful quarterback production, ranking 70th in catchable target rate last season (per PlayerProfiler). Furthermore, Johnson has five receiving touchdowns over the past two years, with 60% coming from Mitchell Trubisky. Thankfully, he gets a quarterback upgrade in Carolina and gets to play in Dave Canales’ fantasy-friendly offense.
Everyone expects Rice to get suspended after multiple off-the-field incidents this offseason. Therefore, his ADP and draft price could improve or nosedive depending on how many games he has to miss. The former SMU star was outstanding to end his rookie year. He was the WR4 from Week 12 through Week 17, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. While the Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, they are downfield threats. Rice should lead all wide receivers on the team in targets per game in 2024.
Finally! It’s time to draft a running back. Fantasy players had high hopes for Spears until the Titans added Tony Pollard in free agency. Yet, the second-year player is one of my favorite Zero-RB or Hero-RB draft targets. Spears had the fifth-best explosive run rate (7%) and the ninth-best yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). While Pollard won’t disappear into the background, Spears will be the better Tennessee running back for fantasy players.
I’ve gone back and forth on Chubb this offseason. He is coming off a gruesome knee injury, putting his status for Week 1 in doubt. Cleveland made some additions to their backfield, but not anyone to suggest Chubb won’t play until Thanksgiving. The veteran averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and a 57% missed forced tackle rate before getting hurt last year (per Fantasy Points Data). While fantasy players likely can’t start him until October, Chubb could be a league-winner if you can get him this late in your draft.
Edwards is coming off the best year of his career. Last season, he was the RB25, averaging 11 fantasy points per game. While the veteran had no role in the passing game, totaling 13 targets in 17 games, Edwards was a touchdown machine. He had 13 rushing touchdowns, the third-most among running backs and the fifth-most in the NFL. Edwards has little competition in the Los Angeles backfield. Expect Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to make him the focal point of the team’s offense in the green zone.
The Broncos backfield is a wide-open competition. However, McLaughlin is the guy you want on your team. He impressed as a rookie, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt in the four contests with at least seven attempts. Furthermore, McLaughlin had the 12th-best explosive run rate among running backs with at least 75 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Sean Payton views him as his next Alvin Kamara and gives McLaughlin a significant workload, especially in the passing game.
While Devin Singletary is a solid veteran, I’m loading up on Tracy late in redraft leagues. He earned the 10th-highest rushing grade in the rookie class from PFF last season (90.5). Furthermore, Tracy ranked first in yards after contact per attempt in the rookie class among running backs with at least 90 attempts in 2023, per PFF (4.44). He is also a threat in the passing game, giving the Giants a weapon out of the backfield. If Singletary struggles, Tracy could quickly earn a larger role on offense.
Many called Dotson a sophomore-year breakout candidate last year. Unfortunately, he was a massive bust for fantasy players, ending the season as the WR56, averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game. Dotson. His target share declined by 14.3%, while his target per route run rate dropped by 23.5% from his rookie year to last season (per Fantasy Points Data). However, he is an appealing post-hype sleeper candidate. The Commanders significantly upgraded at quarterback this offseason. Unless Washington trades for Brandon Aiyuk, Dotson could easily have a bounce-back year.
Foreman is one of my favorite early-season draft targets when using a Zero-RB strategy, especially if I draft Nick Chubb. Last year, he was the RB11 from Week 6 through Week 10, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup. While Jerome Ford was a solid player last season, he struggled on the ground, totaling four yards per rushing attempt and only four touchdowns. Expect Foreman to be Cleveland’s leading rusher, with Ford being the passing downs guy until Chubb is healthy.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
Mike Fanelli
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@Mike_NFL2
Mike Fanelli is a featured contributor for FantasyPros. He is also a featured contributor for BettingPros, RotoBaller, Pro Football Network, and the Faceoff Sports Network. Mike is also the former Editor in Chief and fantasy football expert for Prime Time Sports Talk. Follow him on Twitter @Mike_NFL2 and reach out anytime for fantasy football help.
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