Fantasy Football
Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Advertisement
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Zach Charbonnet was a beast — No. 1 in the rankings — but the party is probably ending if Kenneth Walker (calf) is back this week. Charbonnet is playable, but he’s expected to be 50/50 in touches, though with more projected value than Walker, given his involvement in the passing game.
Chuba Hubbard is back to being a locked-in bell cow, with Jonathon Brooks suffering another ACL injury. Hubbard is a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs, of course.
At No. 10, Tank Bigsby is noteworthy. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a depressed offense with Mac Jones at quarterback — he doesn’t have a completion on a pass more than 20 yards downfield this year. There is no explosion, nothing for safeties to really worry about.
Rico Dowdle has one rushing TD. I get it. But he’s second in rushing yards for the past six weeks, coinciding with his carry share increasing from about 45 percent to 75 percent. Get him in your lineups. The Carolina Panthers, the Dallas Cowboys’ Week 15 opponent, are 31st in yards allowed per carry.
We don’t know the status of Bucky Irving. You can’t play Rachaad White if Irving is active, but White’s a must-play if Irving is out. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the top offenses, averaging over 6.0 yards per play.
Advertisement
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was in the top 20, but he’s really higher given that he had 10 targets … Drew Lock targets. But still, get him in there. The New York Giants passed a lot in Week 14 — 49 attempts (21 completions). Tracy’s fumble woes have apparently been forgiven, so Devin Singletary vulturing touches is no longer a worry.
Isaac Guerendo has a foot issue. He says he’s fine, but the San Francisco 49ers play on Thursday. You’ll at least be able to make the early-week decision to use him or replace him in your lineup. The Rams are tough of late against the run, but Guerendo’s still a must-start if active — the Niners run game has been more explosive without Christian McCaffery. If Guerendo is out, pick up Patrick Taylor. However, I don’t have high confidence Taylor will get the vast majority of carries.
Jerome Ford has carved out a committee role with Nick Chubb, a development I did not see coming. Chubb must not be close to 100 percent from a pain perspective. (We knew he would not be, and probably will never be, close to 100 percent of what he was.)
Sincere McCormick was 20th, and I don’t see him losing the job as primary ball carrier this week, though the offense will likely be depressed with Desmond Ridder at QB. Ridder faces his former Atlanta Falcons team in Week 15. Atlanta is stingy with rushing TDs but not with points, and we care more about the latter than the former.
Unexpectedly, the Jets running backs were grouped tightly, and if Breece Hall is out again, I’d have Braelon Allen at about RB25 and Isaiah Davis, who is very attainable, at about 32 — not much difference.
I never veer off the past week’s market share list, but remember, Jaleel McLaughlin (bye last week) is out there. He’s in the RB30 bucket, too. He has no floor.
Parker Washington was a bust for us in Week 14, mostly because Brian Thomas Jr. was fourth in the rankings at 39 percent.
Advertisement
Jordan Addison was second and has to be played this week, with Sam Darnold on pace for nearly 40 TD passes. The Minnesota Vikings have a narrow passing tree. Addison had 17 more market share points than Justin Jefferson. Darnold is having success passing where the defense isn’t, and that’s often away from Jefferson.
Amari Cooper was No. 5. I’d start him against Detroit. There’s a two-TD game coming at some point.
Christian Watson looks to be the primary receiver for the Green Bay Packers, which does not mean much, I know — it’s a very tight grouping. But, given his air yards and general explosiveness, Watson is the best bet, by far, for 100-plus yards.
Adam Thielen was 10th, landing him in very plausible starting territory.
Joshua Palmer is also in the start-worthy range, though Ladd McConkey’s status is a big factor for the viability of not just Palmer but also Quentin Johnston. If McConkey is out, Palmer and Johnston are must plays against a bad Tampa Bay pass defense.
Ray-Ray McCloud was 15th. I can’t trust anyone on the Falcons. Kyle Pitts has just disappeared, though, which boosts McCloud. Again, the Falcons play the Las Vegas Raiders, an average pass defense, which means no edge matchup-wise.
Jalen McMillan was top 30, but the Los Angeles Chargers (his Week 15 matchup) are a top defense.
I can’t trust Xavier Legette despite his similar ranking, even against the Cowboys.
Malik Nabers was 41st at just over 20 percent. But we can’t ignore the team quarterback when making decisions on wide receivers. The Giants’ situation is bad to an outlying degree. New York is home against the Baltimore Ravens, who have a bad pass defense but not as bad a pass defense as Lock is a QB.
(Top photo of Jordan Addison: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)
Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports and collectibles for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He has covered a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also wrote about movies. He’s been the U.S. elections correspondent for the U.K.’s The Independent. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
