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Welcome to our latest fantasy football feature, “Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers,” where we delve into the shifting tides of player valuations over the past month; July 14th – June 14th to be exact.
As the NFL preseason approaches and teams begin to take shape, understanding these movements in Average Draft Position (ADP) can be crucial in planning your draft strategy as things shift due to training camp news. In this article, we’ll explore the players who have seen their stock soar and those who have dipped since mid-June to shed light on potential reasons behind these changes.
To enhance your experience and analysis, we’ve included a variety of charts and graphics. These visual aids will help you better understand the magnitude of these shifts and the trends that could be impacting player valuations. Whether you’re gearing up for your league’s draft or simply staying informed on the fantasy landscape, these insights will provide you with a clearer picture of the current fantasy football market dynamics. The graphics are provided by FantasyPros and BettingPros data scientist, Sam Hoppen. The charts are aggregated ADP from best ball ADP, which includes BB10s, Underdog Fantasy, Drafters and RTSports.
To provide a thorough analysis, the article is organized by position — quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends — allowing you to see the trends specific to each category. This breakdown will help you pinpoint where the most significant changes are happening and how they might affect your draft strategy across different positions.
Join us as we break down the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football ADP, providing you with the knowledge to make informed decisions and potentially find value picks that could make or break your fantasy season.
RISERS
Jerome Ford continues to rise in the wake of the Nick Chubb injury, although posted earlier today (July 15th) was a video of Nick Chubb squatting an ABSURD amount of weight. Jaleel McLaughlin also continues to rise (someone please tell DBro to chill out drafting him three rounds ahead of ADP) at the expense of Javonte Willams (down 10 spots). Williams has to earn the starting role in Denver. Meanwhile, McLaughlin looks to be in the driver’s seat to carve out a massive role in the Broncos passing game led by check-down KING, Bo Nix. Sean Payton’s offenses love throwing to RBs. McLaughlin looks to be that GUY in 2024.
RISERS
The top takeaway: draft Jaylen Waddle before it’s too late. The same is true for Rashee Rice, who drafters are taking more confidently with the potential suspension looking like it will happen later rather than sooner. He’s already starting to quietly creep back up the rankings and in ADP. Rice’s ADP fell dramatically concerning his off-the-field issues earlier this year, so it’s anybody’s guess when or how long Rice will be suspended with the most likely outcome somewhere from 4-to-6 games.
Fantasy managers tend to never quite accurately predict the suspension length and when it occurs, given the appeal and legal processes, etc. It’s entirely possible Rice could be suspended for fewer games and it may not even happen until the 2025 season.
Recall Alvin Kamara’s suspension was dragged through 18 months before he served a three-game suspension at the start of 2023. One way or another, once we get concrete information about Rice, you are either going to see his ADP rise or the ADPs of his WR Chiefs teammates — Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy — jump after news breaks.
Recall that Brown has had stretches of WR1 production. In 2022, Brown was the WR6 through the first six weeks of the 2022 season. In the eight games played without DeAndre Hopkins, Brown averaged nearly 12.3 points per game in half-PPR (WR15).
The Bears receivers are also down across the board because there are “too many mouths to feed.” Mike Williams is down big as well, obviously based on him featured in my latest video of “8 Fantasy Football Players You Should Avoid Drafting at ALL COSTS” in 2024. Sorry, Big Mike. I’m a company man. Pro Bowler Marvin Mims Jr. is also down 15 spots. Yes, he was a Pro Bowler last season. Give ’em hell Marv.
Can’t say the same for Steelers rookie WR Roman Wilson. Nothing positive has come out of Steelers camp about any WR after George Pickens.
Ergo…the MUTH IS LUTH.
RISERS
Greg Dulcich can’t get out of the tub, so Lucas Krull has gained some steam at Broncos camp. Colby Parkinson has also got some love from Rams beat reporter from the Athletic, Jordan Rodrigue. Mark Andrews also continues to be disrespected seeing his ADP fall with all the other “injured” tight ends of note.
https://t.co/KmGiJEPVjS pic.twitter.com/gpqtJWG0UB
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 15, 2024
RISERS
Giants GM Joe Schoen said ‘This is the year for Jones to show he is the guy.” Brian Daboll will call plays which likely leads to a more pass-heavy approach than previously. Let’s ride with Daniel Jones‘ increased ADP. He can run, has Malik Nabers and was a fantasy QB1 in this Giants offense when healthy in 2022. My only concern is the injury guarantee in his contract which makes it easy for the Giants to bench him if they are out of contention. But if he sucks, then he likely wouldn’t be a factor for your fantasy roster anyway. Other QB risers are guys that we feel more comfortable with as the Week 1 starter between Darnold, Wilson, Nix and Brissett. Fallers include pocket passers who were being overvalued in the first place compared to their more mobile counterparts. The Aidan O’Connell fall doesn’t add up though, given he’s been viewed as the early favorite as QB1 in the Raiders building.
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Andrew Erickson
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@AndrewErickson_
Andrew Erickson is a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.
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