2T958PW LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 04: USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) looks to throw the ball during a college football game between the Washington Huskies against the USC Trojans on November 04, 2023, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
• Caleb Williams vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. debate: The first overall pick in dynasty superflex rookie drafts will vary based on how close the two top rookies are.
• No consensus to end the first round: After the first few picks, there are a variety of options depending on how much someone values a player’s talent compared to their landing spot and short-term opportunities.
• Wide receivers dominate Round 2: There have been plenty of wide receivers selected in recent NFL drafts who made an immediate impact, and multiple wide receivers selected in Round 2 of dynasty rookie drafts are likely to do the same.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
On the PFF Fantasy Podcast, Jon Macri, Kate Magdziuk, Nic Bodiford and I did a 24-pick mock draft for a rookie superflex league. You can watch the full draft with the reasoning behind each pick here. This is my summary of the draft with my thoughts on how the draft went and how this might be similar or different to a draft you will participate in.
These two players will probably be the first two picks in any superflex draft. Typically, in rookie drafts, there is a large gap between the first and second player, a smaller gap between the second and third, and so on. In superflex leagues, there is a relatively small gap between first and second, and then a bigger gap between second and third. I have Harrison ahead in my dynasty rookie rankings while Jon has Williams first. If you have the first pick, it’s OK to break the tie based on positional need based on your current team’s roster.
The following picks were expected. Myself, Jon, and recent experts on FantasyPros have these three players somewhere between third and sixth in this order. They were five of the top six picks in the NFL draft, in addition to the Los Angeles Chargers taking offensive tackle Joe Alt, and four of the top five players on our big board. All three quarterbacks should be Day 1 starters, and both wide receivers should be the top targets on their respective teams.
This is where drafts can go in any direction. An argument can be made for the next quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, the next running back in Jonathon Brooks, the next tight end in Brock Bowers, or one of several wide receivers.
There are wide receivers with high draft capital in Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr., wide receivers who landed with great quarterbacks in Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Xavier Worthy, wide receivers who PFF and most consensus big boards had in the top-40 overall players like Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin.
Nic noted multiple times that McConkey should be able to contribute immediately to the offense. I have McConkey ranked higher than Rome Odunze or Xavier Worthy in my redraft rankings. Some people will weigh a player’s ability to make an immediate impact higher than others, which is why you will see these wide receivers get picked in a variety of orders. Consensus dynasty superflex rookie rankings have McConkey closer to the end of the first round
These two picks went as expected. They are the next two highest players on consensus rankings, my rankings and Jon’s rankings in this order. I have some concerns about Drake Maye’s rushing, leading me to rank Odunze ahead of Maye. It’s unusual to be able to pick top-10 players from the NFL draft in the latter half of the first round of a dynasty rookie superflex draft most seasons. These kind of picks are more valuable this year than in the past.
This was the second big surprise of the first round. It wasn’t surprising that it took this long for the first running back to get picked, but it was surprising for Trey Benson to get picked before Brooks.
Brooks was the first running back picked in the draft and the highest running back on our big board. He also ranks higher in most dynasty rankings. Brooks’ primary competition to begin with is Chuba Hubbard while Benson will compete with James Conner.
Kate noted the long-term upside with Benson in the Cardinals offense. The combination of Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride should make Arizona one of the better offenses for the next few years. While Conner was one of the best running backs last season, he has an extensive injury history and is older for a running back. Benson will likely have a few weeks where he’s a fantasy starter this season, and it could be more if he plays well.
The order of these players can be debated but for the most part. Brooks and Brock Bowers are the consensus top players at their position and can get picked before this point if a team has a clear need at one of those positions. Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy were the fourth and fifth wide receivers picked in the NFL draft, and Keon Coleman is similar to Ladd McConkey in that he was a high second-round pick who could be the top target on his team with an elite quarterback.
Most of these players went a pick or two later than consensus with the Trey Benson and Ladd McConkey picks, as those players would ordinarily be in this range, but it also shouldn’t be surprising in any league if there are surprise players in the second half of the first round. There are still two first-round quarterbacks who typically go in the second round but could be valued in the first, and plenty of second and third-round wide receivers who were viewed very highly heading into the draft.
Polk is the one surprising pick in this range, making Brian Thomas Jr. the steal of this draft in my opinion, but I may be biased as it was my pick.
The second round was full of wide receivers, speaking to where the talent was in this draft. Everyone was picked from the end of the first to the third round during the NFL draft. We witnessed Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Josh Downs and Michael Wilson all provide fantasy value at times last season while Christian Watson, Wan’Dale Robinson and George Pickens did so the season before. All of the wide receivers selected here should be on the field for three wide receiver sets as rookies.
The only non-wide receiver picks here were the two first-round quarterbacks. They would likely be third-round picks in single quarterback leagues, but the superflex format brings them to the second round.
There were only two running backs selected among the first 23 picks. You might see another running back or two get picked at the end of the second round, but this speaks to the relatively weak running back class mixed with poor landing spots for most backs.
Ten running backs were selected in the first four rounds, but some of the landing spots were the Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams. All five teams had running backs who ranked in the top 10 of PFF offensive grade last season. The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers added big-name running backs in free agency who were at one point top-three running backs by PFF grade. This leaves Jonathon Brooks with the Carolina Panthers who was already selected, and then Ray Davis with the Buffalo Bills and Bucky Irving with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are both expected to be backups this year.
Kate opted for a fifth-round running back here who landed in one of the better opportunities. Javonte Williams looked great as a rookie but hasn’t been the same the past two seasons in part due to injury. Jaleel McLaughlin graded exceptionally well, but never played more than 21 snaps in a game. Samaje Perine was exclusively a receiving back for Denver. An argument could be made for Estime to be one of the more impactful rookie running backs in his first year.
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