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Football is a game of fine margins, on and off the field. Just ask Graham Arnold, who was stressing the importance of FIFA ranking points seven months ago.
The meticulous Arnold spotted from a mile out that they might really matter on the road to the 2026 World Cup — so much that, in the lead-up to January’s Asian Cup in Qatar, he was talking not only about winning matches for the benefit of their hopes at that tournament, but to ensure they would continue rising up FIFA’s world rankings.
Lewis Miller fouls Son Heung-min in the Asian Cup quarter-final.Credit: AP
It came off a bit weird of the time, but he was right. Say what you want about the man, but no detail is too small to get past him.
In retrospect, Lewis Miller’s clumsy challenge on Son Heung-min in the 96th minute of the Asian Cup quarter-final takes on even greater meaning. It was the moment Australia’s broader fortunes swung dramatically. The world No.23-ranked Socceroos could have leap-frogged the 22nd-placed South Korea — but they went from 1-0 up to a 2-1 defeat, and in the end, just 1.58 points separated them as Asia’s third and fourth best teams.
And so for Thursday night’s draw for the AFC’s third World Cup qualifying round, in which the 18 remaining nations were split into six pots of three, and then drawn into three groups of six, South Korea were in pot one, which meant they couldn’t face Japan or Iran, and Australia were in pot two, which meant they could.
In Riyadh, on the final match day of the AFC’s second qualifying round, Saudi Arabia were upset 2-1 by Jordan. As a result, they dropped down three places to No.56 in the world. Meanwhile, Iraq moved up three places to No.55. They are separated by 1.77 points. And so Iraq were in pot two with the Socceroos, and the Saudis slid down to pot three, which made them the most dangerous floater in the draw.
So of course this was going to happen.
For the third consecutive World Cup cycle, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Japan have landed in the same group. But it’s actually more ridiculous than that; Australia and Japan have landed in the same group at the same critical stage of World Cup qualification for every single campaign since Australia moved from Oceania to Asia: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, now 2026. They had China in 2022 as well.
Fans were hoping desperately for something different, some of them barracking for a long-awaited opportunity to exact revenge on Iran for what happened at the MCG in 1997, others seduced by the danger factor of a possible away day in Pyongyang. The Socceroos still have not met Iran or North Korea at senior men’s level despite being in the same confederation for 18 years, and the wait will now be that little bit longer.
“It is what it is,” Arnold said.
“Logistically it could have been much, much harder. We’ve got some good opponents, but the full focus has to be on ourselves. The boys have had the experience of playing in these countries before, which is good. We know what to expect. Could be much worse.”
Australia v Bahrain – Thursday, 5 September
Indonesia v Australia – Tuesday, 10 September
Australia v China – Thursday, 10 October
Japan v Australia – Tuesday, 15 October
Australia v Saudi Arabia – Thursday, 14 November
Bahrain v Australia – Tuesday, 19 November
Australia v Indonesia – Thursday, 20 March
China v Australia – Tuesday, 25 March
Australia v Japan – Thursday, 5 June
Saudi Arabia v Australia – Tuesday, 10 June
*Venue and kick-off times for all fixtures are still TBC.
The top two teams from each the three groups in this phase will confirm their spots at the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The good news is that – such is the format – the Socceroos could lose their two matches against Japan (as, respectfully, most people assume they would) and still qualify from Group C, so long as they can do a job on everyone else. It’s worth remembering, too, that the last campaign was wrecked to a large degree by COVID, which made home matches in Australia impossible at some times and ruled out players indiscriminately at others.
When FIFA announced the World Cup would be expanding from 32 to 48 teams, and Asia going from 4.5 direct slots to 8.5, it seemed as if all the tension would be drained from Australia’s qualification campaigns. It still may be that the Socceroos will continue their streak of World Cup appearances for a long time to come. And it would still be a huge scandal if somehow they don’t make it to 2026, especially since there will be two more spots up for grabs in the AFC’s fourth qualifying round, and then another chance through the intercontinental play-offs after that.
But in the last two cycles, Australia has finished third behind Japan and Saudi Arabia, forcing them into the play-offs to get to Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022. They have not passed the final eight of an Asian Cup since winning it in 2015, so recent history suggests it should not be a cakewalk, that it should be a bit of a struggle, even with the expansion of the World Cup.
Are the Socceroos actually better side these days, or are we just hoping they are? Do they really have greater depth? All these new young kids in the team are exciting, but what are they really made of? How much has Arnold really learned from previous experiences?
The next 12 months, and the intense crucible of World Cup qualification, will provide the answers.
Round Three:
Round Four:
Round Five:
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