The team with the best record in the NFL has won one of the past six Super Bowls. The team with the best record in the NBA has won one of the past seven championships. The team with the best record in MLB has won one of the past four World Series. The team with the best record in MLS has won one of the past seven titles. The NHL’s Presidents’ Trophy winner hasn’t won the Stanley Cup in more than 11 years.
College football’s progress is Oregon’s problem.
The No. 1 Ducks (13-0) have been the best team this season. But that no longer matters. They are just one of eight teams that must win three neutral-site games to win a national championship.
And because of the expanded playoff’s flawed seeding process, the top-ranked team opens with the rare opponent that possesses more talent, an in-conference foe that is prepared for what’s coming.
In October, Ohio State was in a position to leave Eugene with a last-second win before star freshman Jeremiah Smith was controversially called for offensive pass interference.
While the Ducks remained the nation’s only unbeaten team, the Buckeyes stumbled at home to a mediocre Michigan team. In any season prior to this one, Ohio State would be scheduled for a meaningless bowl.
But that no longer matters.
The wake-up call from the Wolverines inspired a 42-17 win over a Tennessee team that had allowed more than 17 points just twice all season. The Buckeyes defense, the best in the nation, remains their backbone.
A quarterfinal win in the Rose Bowl won’t prove that Ohio State (-2.5) is the better team. But that has never been what playoffs are about.
PICK: Ohio State -2.5 (-110, ESPN BET)
The Broncos made some of the most convincing arguments in favor of a playoff, beginning with their “Statue of Liberty” walk-off win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. Life in the Mountain West doesn’t give Boise State many opportunities to impress, but it showed its potential in a three-point loss at No. 1 Oregon.
The Nittany Lions could struggle to slow Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, having allowed at least 176 rushing yards on three occasions. Jeanty, who is averaging 192.1 rushing yards per game this season, needs 131 more to break Barry Sanders’ all-time single-season record.
The Sun Devils are at their best in this role, going 11-2 against the spread as an underdog this season. Arizona State has repeatedly exceeded expectations under 34-year-old Kenny Dillingham, thanks to fifth-place Heisman finisher Cam Skattebo, dual-threat quarterback Sam Leavitt and the fifth-best turnover margin in the nation. Quinn Ewers’ carelessness with the ball and Steve Sarkisian’s conservative play-calling has lowered the Longhorns’ ceiling, allowing them to win by more than 14 points in just two of their past eight games.
The Bulldogs will be without starting quarterback Carson Beck, but Gunner Stockton will have had more than three weeks to prepare, unlike when he was inserted into the SEC title game and led Georgia to victory. The Irish will struggle to make the backup uncomfortable without injured star defensive lineman Rylie Mills. A coin-flip game tilts in Georgia’s favor with a head coach with two national titles in Kirby Smart and the experience of playing the toughest schedule in the nation.
After being left out of the playoff, the Crimson Tide have a surprising number of starters suiting up, including quarterback Jalen Milroe. Alabama can’t get payback after losing to the Wolverines in last season’s playoff semifinal, but it can serve one final humiliation to the defending champs, who sport the nation’s 100th-ranked offense. Alabama won by 25 in a non-playoff bowl game two years ago.
The Cardinals were the pick before quarterback Tyler Shough and star receiver Ja’Corey Brooks began preparing for the NFL draft. The Huskies are hard to trust after going winless away from home, but three of their five road losses came against playoff teams.
The Illini won nine games for the first time in 17 years, but suffered double-digit losses in their only meetings with ranked teams. The Gamecocks arrive on a six-game winning streak, with rising star quarterback LaNorris Sellers set to put on a show after running for a combined 272 yards and three touchdowns in wins over Clemson and Texas A&M.
Dave Aranda — facing his former team — has one of the hottest teams in the nation, earning another year on the job after winning the past six games by an average of nearly 15 points. Opt-outs and the transfer portal put Brian Kelly in line for his first bowl loss with the Tigers.
The Rebels were a $10 million disappointment to their NIL collective, routinely overlooking inferior opponents. Even with Jaxson Dart participating, the Rebels could struggle to run it up — they topped 28 points once in the past eight games — against an opponent that covered five of seven games as an underdog and had the second-ranked defense in the ACC.
The nation’s fourth-best passing offense is turning to a freshman quarterback with five career pass attempts. Don’t expect this version of the Mean Green to keep up with a Bobcats offense averaging 49 points in their past three games.
P.J. Fleck hasn’t lost a bowl game in five trips with the Gophers, but their past four bowl wins have been decided by an average of fewer than nine points. This season, six of their past eight games were decided by single digits. The Hokies haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points this season.
The nation’s third-ranked ground game will be unrecognizable without starting quarterback Kaidon Salter, leading rusher Quinton Cooley and multiple offensive linemen.
Best bets: Arizona State, Georgia
This season: 129-120-2 (20-28-2)
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30
Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).
