Coming out of a Statement Saturday full of upsets and prove-it moments for would-be contenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into Week 12, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we head into consequential November football?
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 8.6 games
Mizzou picked up a fumble and returned it for a touchdown with 22 seconds left to sneak past Oklahoma and move to 3-2 in SEC play, and, in the words of head coach Eli Drinkwitz, still very much in the playoff hunt, but a date at South Carolina awaits.
Rankings change: Down 3
Win total projection: 8.9 games
Just two weeks ago, the Cyclones were 7-0 and a playoff contender, but after two straight losses those hopes are in considerable peril, even if this team is still within striking distance of the Big 12 championship in third place.
Rankings change: Down 3
Win total projection: 7.5 games
After scoring over 40 points in two straight games, both wins, the Hawkeyes fell flat in a loss against UCLA that drops the team to 4-3 in Big Ten play and a fifth-place position in the conference standings.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 9.4 games
Suddenly the Buffaloes are within striking distance of the Big 12 championship after moving into second place in the standings with an important win on the road against Texas Tech, in part thanks to a defense that had 3 takeaways in the game.
Rankings change: Down 2
Win total projection: 11.4 games
Ashton Jeanty ran for over 200 yards and 3 more touchdowns to help put away Nevada and the Broncos are still at just one loss, a 3-point decision against now-No. 1 Oregon, and are undefeated in Mountain West play as a Group of Five playoff contender.
Rankings change: Up 4
Win total projection: 10.2 games
Riding a seven-game win streak and still undefeated in AAC play, the Green Wave are coming off a beatdown against Temple that keeps this team in the mix for the selection committee.
Rankings change: Up 3
Win total projection: 9.1 games
While the Wildcats were off this past weekend, they’re still in a tie for third place in the Big 12 standings which makes the finale against Iowa State all the more important.
Rankings change: Down 1
Win total projection: 5.9 games
The outlier in the ESPN rankings given the Trojans are just 4-5 in a season Lincoln Riley would like to forget, but the computers still favor this team by a generous margin against "average opponents," hence this ranking, long after other pollsters forgot USC exists.
Rankings change: Down 1
Win total projection: 10.8 games
Idle this weekend, the Mustangs are still within striking distance of winning the ACC championship as we move deeper into November football after that signature victory over Pittsburgh, but the selection committee kept this team just outside the top 12 of their rankings.
Rankings change: Down 4
Win total projection: 8 games
Some big questions on offense as Garrett Nussmeier was held out of the end zone until garbage time and threw 2 interceptions in an ugly loss to Alabama in an effective playoff elimination game, and what must be one of Brian Kelly’s worst coaching performances.
Rankings change: None
Win total projection: 8.9 games
Idle for Week 11, the Aggies need to regroup after a 22-point loss at South Carolina, but still sit in a tie for first place in the SEC standings after Georgia’s loss at Ole Miss and should be a big favorite against New Mexico State this coming weekend.
Rankings change: Up 4
Win total projection: 8.1 games
Raheim Sanders ran for 126 yards and scored 3 touchdowns as the Gamecocks got past Vanderbilt on the road in a 28-7 win, the team’s second-straight victory over an AP top 25 team heading into a home date against Missouri.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 8.4 games
Off this past weekend, the Cardinals improved to 6-3 with that big win at Clemson the weekend before and goes to Stanford next before a home date against Pittsburgh after that.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 9.3 games
Cade Klubnik threw 3 touchdown passes in an important road victory at Virginia Tech coming off last week’s loss to Louisville and putting Clemson back firmly in the ACC championship picture.
Rankings change: Down 2
Win total projection: 11.3 games
Undefeated no more, the Hurricanes’ offense didn’t have enough juice to pull off another comeback as the ACC title favorites took a loss on the road against Georgia Tech and fall out of first place in the conference.
Rankings change: None
Win total projection: 11.4 games
Kurtis Rourke threw 2 touchdowns in a 5-point win against Michigan at home to earn the Hoosiers’ first-ever 10-win start, but the ground game accounted for just 1.4 yards per carry, something to work on during the off week before going to Ohio State two weeks from now.
Rankings change: Down 1
Win total projection: 10.3 games
Nico Iamaleava threw 2 touchdown passes to build a lead against Mississippi State, but left the game with a newfound injury that is worth watching as the 8-1 Vols head to Georgia in a marquee matchup loaded with playoff implications for both teams.
Rankings change: Up 3
Win total projection: 10.6 games
Drew Allar had over 200 yards passing as the Nittany Lions dominated Washington at home, recovering from the Ohio State loss and still easily within range of finishing 11-1 and certainly playoff material if so.
Rankings change: None
Win total projection: 12 games
Dillon Gabriel threw 3 touchdown passes and had no turnovers as the Ducks handled Maryland to improve to 10-0 overall and further cement its hold on the top spot in the Big Ten, but the undefeated Hoosiers are right there, too.
Rankings change: Down 2
Win total projection: 9.6 games
Another sluggish offensive outing and some generous secondary defense resulted in the Bulldogs’ second loss of the season, this time at Ole Miss, and while the defeat hurts their playoff chances a little, another big test comes next weekend at home against Tennessee.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 9.8 games
That 1-2 start in SEC play seems like a distant memory now after the Rebels dominated Georgia in a 28-10 decision at home thanks to some inspired defense playing its best football at just the right time.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win total projection: 10.5 games
As expected, the Irish pounded the sleepy Seminoles, running for over 200 yards and Riley Leonard accounted for 3 touchdowns, moving to 8-1 and giving the playoff committee another reason to keep this team in contention, but a date against perfect Army awaits in two weeks.
Rankings change: Down 1
Win total projection: 11 games
Jeremiah Smith broke OSU’s freshman record with his 9th touchdown catch of the season as Will Howard threw 3 TD passes and the Buckeyes smashed Purdue in a 45-0 rout to stay in the mix around the top of the Big Ten conference standings.
Rankings change: Down 1
Win total projection: 11 games
Quinn Ewers threw 5 touchdown passes as the Longhorns destroyed the Gators at home in a 49-17 decision that puts this team on firmer footing near the top of the rankings, especially after Miami’s loss.
Rankings change: Up 2
Win total projection: 10 games
Jalen Milroe ran all over LSU, stacking up 185 yards and 4 touchdowns in an effective playoff elimination game, keeping the Crimson Tide in the thick of the postseason chase and proving they can beat anyone when they have a mind to.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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