Coming out of a bitter Rivalry Week full of upsets and prove-it moments to help separate the contenders from the pretenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into Championship Weekend, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we come out of the regular season finale and move into the postseason?
Rankings change: Down 3
The Wildcats didn't have enough to get past Iowa State on the road, having a turnover on downs and missing a late field goal in their effort to play Big 12 spoiler, and finish 8-4 with a bowl game forthcoming.
Rankings change: Down 4
After spotting the Cornhuskers 10 points to start out, the Hawkeyes took over, not allowing any second half points and pushing ahead on a field goal as time ran out to win 13-10, and move to 8-4 with bowl selection forthcoming.
Rankings change: Up 3
Rocco Becht threw 2 touchdowns and ran for a third as the Cyclones held off Big 12 hopeful Kansas State at home, but more importantly earned a piece of the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State after BYU won its game a few hours later, to finally solve the puzzle that was the conference’s title game picture.
Rankings change: Up 3
The improved Gators ran all over rival Florida State in the finale, as Montrell Johnson stacked up 99 yards, while UF’s defense picked up 5 fumbles, added 8 sacks, and forced 14 negative plays behind the line to finish 7-5 to finish with 3 straight wins, including against 2 ranked teams, against college football’s toughest schedule.
Rankings change: Down 4
While the Green Wave already clinched a place in the AAC Championship Game against Army, it needed to beat Memphis to keep alive any slim College Football Playoff hopes that remained, but a stunning upset loss to the Tigers on Thanksgiving put an abrupt end to those chances.
Rankings change: Up 1
Brady Cook ran through the snow for the go-ahead touchdown in his last game at Faurot Field to put away Arkansas in the finale and finish 9-3. Now the Tigers await bowl selection.
Rankings change: Up 5
Travis Hunter further strengthened his position atop the Heisman Trophy big board after another stunning performance, catching 3 touchdown passes and deflecting 2 passes on defense, as the Buffaloes flattened Big 12 punching bag Oklahoma State in a 52-0 rout, but will miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game.
Rankings change: None
Lincoln Riley’s team was playing playoff-hopeful Notre Dame very close most of the day before his young quarterback broke the game open by throwing two interceptions the Irish turned into touchdowns, both covering the length of the field and dropping Southern Cal to a dismal 6-6, but still good enough for ESPN’s rankings.
Rankings change: Up 2
Garrett Nussmeier put up 277 yards and scored 3 touchdowns to help LSU get past Oklahoma in the regular season finale and finish 8-4, something of a disappointment considering what this team could have played for, but now they await their bowl assignment.
Rankings change: Down 1
Not a single offensive point for the Aggies in a disappointing effort in the anticipated return of the rivalry game against Texas, missing out on a chance to play for the SEC Championship Game and now out of the College Football Playoff, too.
Rankings change: Down 1
Despite losing at home against South Carolina, the Tigers clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game against SMU after Miami’s surprise loss at Syracuse, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive, as well.
Rankings change: Up 2
Suddenly, the Gamecocks find themselves right in the thick of the College Football Playoff picture after winning their sixth straight game and beating a third ranked opponent after rallying to take down rival Clemson on the road.
Rankings change: None
The Cardinals won their first Governor’s Cup since the 2017 season after thrashing rival Kentucky by a 41-14 count that included 5 takeaways, including 1 that was returned for a touchdown, and now await their bowl assignment at 8-4.
Rankings change: None
Kevin Jennings threw for 2 touchdowns as the Mustangs put away Cal in the finale, clinching an undefeated record in conference play as they prepare to face Clemson for the ACC Championship Game, with a likely first-round College Football Playoff bye going to the winner.
Rankings change: Down 1
Miami’s second loss of the season came at the worst time, when it had a chance to clinch the ACC Championship Game, but its defense surrendered 42 points to Syracuse in a major late-season upset that threatens the Hurricanes’ postseason ambitions in a big way. After the loss, the Canes have a meager 23.6 percent chance to make the playoff.
Rankings change: Up 1
Kurtis Rourke scored 6 touchdowns and the Hoosiers ran for 233 yards and 3 more scores to thrash rival Purdue by a 66-0 count and effectively secure a place in the College Football Playoff. ESPN’s computers give the Hoosiers a 9.9 percent chance to make the national title game, and a 4.2 percent chance to win it.
Rankings change: None
A dominant 44-7 win against Maryland at home, combined with Ohio State’s stunning loss to Michigan, paves the way for the Nittany Lions to face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, and further entrench its position near the top of the College Football Playoff bracket.
Rankings change: Down 2
A closer than expected Egg Bowl after Mississippi State scored two first quarter touchdowns, but the Rebels came back to avoid the upset, and now wait to see if any sliver of hope remains in their very narrow College Football Playoff hopes.
Rankings change: Up 1
After spotting Vanderbilt a stunning two-touchdown lead, the Volunteers stormed back to score 29 straight points as Nico Iamaleava put up 4 touchdown passes to help keep this team squarely in the selection committee’s favor in the top dozen going forward.
Rankings change: Up 1
Dillon Gabriel passed for 2 touchdowns and Jordan James ran for 2 more as the Ducks pounded Washington to finish as the only FBS college football team with a perfect record in the regular season, and now awaits Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game with what the ESPN computer calls the third-best odds to win the national title (9%).
Rankings change: None
Having already clinched a place in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs needed everything they had and more to get past Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, and strengthen their hold on a place in the College Football Playoff.
Rankings change: None
Jalen Milroe ran for 3 touchdowns as the Crimson Tide secured a fifth-straight win over Auburn in the famous Iron Bowl game, but it probably wasn’t enough for three-loss Bama to play itself back into the College Football Playoff picture.
Rankings change: Down 1
This was supposed to be when that three-game losing streak to Michigan ended, but Will Howard threw 2 interceptions, the ground game went nowhere, and the hugely-favored Buckeyes didn’t score any points in the second half in a stunning 13-10 upset loss to their arch-rival, and OSU is out of the Big Ten title race.
Rankings change: Up 1
Putting up 49 points on the road in a win against an inspired USC team should be enough to clinch a place in the College Football Playoff for the Fighting Irish, who have won 10 straight games to close out the regular season, and are second nationally with a 15% shot at the title, per the ESPN models.
Rankings change: None
The Longhorns ran for almost 250 yards and outphysicaled a tough A&M front line in a dominant performance that ensures a spot against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That’ll be Round 2 between these teams, as the Bulldogs gave then-No. 1 Texas its only loss of the year when they met in Austin a few weeks ago. ESPN names the Longhorns the favorite to win the title (23.4%).
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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