When college football’s early top 25 rankings released every year around this time, there is a tendency to latch onto certain teams as playoff contenders while others stick out as possible pretenders. Rosters are just about finalized with the second portal window now closed and two-deeps coming into focus.
Looking back at various preseason rankings through the years, there are always big misses among voters. Two years ago, TCU went from unranked to making an appearance in the national championship game. That’s an outlier of sorts, but you get the idea.
UNC and Texas A&M ranked inside the preseason top 10 prior to the 2021 and 2022 seasons, but both finished with losing seasons despite lofty expectations. Lincoln Riley and USC, with the reigning Heisman winner at quarterback, failed to impress last season after opening at No. 6.
RELATED: 247Sports post-spring top 25 rankings
Here are five teams that could be contenders — or pretenders.
247Sports post-spring top 25 ranking: No. 20
Contender or pretender: Should Dave Doeren’s team be placed in the elite tier? For the most part, NC State prefers flying under the radar, rather than being graced with high-end expectations. The Wolfpack won nine games and finished at No. 18 in the final AP Poll despite not being ranked in August. In 2022, NC State started the season at No. 13 — where ESPN’s post-spring rankings slot the Wolfpack — and lost four games during conference play. Unranked in 2021, NC State won nine games and secured a No. 18 final ranking. You get the trend here.
If NC State’s transfer portal-heavy roster revamp shoulders expectations and can get out of September with one loss or fewer, after all, the Wolfpack play Tennessee and Clemson away from Carter-Finley Stadium, this squad has a legitimate chance of being a playoff contender. But where NC State is slotted in the preseason poll matters a great deal when considering program trends. If the Wolfpack are outside the top 20, the contender label feels accurate. If they’re inside the top 25, that’s considerable pressure and pushes the narrative over to the pretender side. Doeren has four nine-win seasons and is hoping to get his first 10-plus in 2024.
247Sports post-spring top 25 ranking: No. 10
Contender or pretender: Notre Dame projects as a College Football Playoff team if the Fighting Irish beat USC in the regular-season finale and finish with, at worst, 10 wins. Not all colleagues agree with the high-profile billing, some of that due to injury worries with Duke transfer Riley Leonard at quarterback and other roster questions. However, the expanded playoff format will always be beneficial to an independent like the Fighting Irish who, compared to their other Power-conference brethren, will play annual schedules conducive to success.
Notre Dame addressed worries at playmaker spots, and added a key cog on Marcus Freeman’s coaching staff with Mike Denbrock from LSU as the new OC. He led the most potent offense in college football last fall, helping develop Jayden Daniels into a Heisman winner and No. 2 overall draft pick. If Denbrock can work his magic with Notre Dame’s talent at the position and the Fighting Irish can fill a couple sizable production holes defensively, buying stock in this team now is a good idea.
247Sports post-spring top 25 ranking: No. 19
Contender or pretender: Voters are high on the Aggies at 247Sports. At ESPN, Texas A&M is not ranked in its post-spring top 25. What gives in College Station heading into Mike Elko’s first season? Overreactions set in opening weekend when Texas A&M hosts Notre Dame in a matchup that is sure to spark poll changes when votes are cast coming out of Week 1. The rest of the first half of the season is quite manageable for a team with a bevy of new starters via the transfer portal following a mass exodus of talent coming out of 2023’s spiral.
It feels like the Aggies are one year away under a new staff from rightfully garnering expanded playoff buzz. Now, part of that hope is that quarterback Conner Weigman returns for another year in 2025 since he’ll be draft-eligible after this season. He was one of the SEC’s hottest signal callers the first month of the 2023 season before an injury put him on the shelf for the remainder of Jimbo Fisher’s ill-fated last hurrah. Elko hit the portal hard this cycle and if that’s a sign of things to come, Texas A&M should be able to find success in the new-look SEC as one of college football’s best jobs. But for now, in 2024, the Aggies are a pretender.
247Sports post-spring top 25 ranking: No. 11
Contender or pretender: Mike Norvell is a transfer portal guru and again ensured the Seminoles have one of the ACC’s top-tier rosters heading into the 2024 season. Equipped with an elite signing class to pair with his portal additions, Norvell showcased his offseason expertise with another talent reload and should be one of the coaches who significantly benefits from playoff expansion. Former Oregon State and Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei learned the offense quickly during the spring and has a variety of weapons around him. FSU’s returning defensive backs are extremely athletic, too.
The Seminoles rose seven spots from their initial appearance at No. 18 and are the preseason frontrunners to win the ACC, according to latest odds. The defending league champions play nationally-ranked Miami and Notre Dame on the road, along with a sizable showdown with Clemson in Tallahassee, but won’t have to deal with Virginia Tech, NC State or Louisville — three dark-horse candidates — in conference play. There’s pressure to defend their ACC crown, but these contenders can handle the noise.
247Sports post-spring top 25 ranking: No. 15
Contender or pretender: Most preseason projections include the Sooners inside the top 20, anywhere from No. 14 to No. 18. If we’re judging how Oklahoma will finish the 2024 season, inside the top 20 may be a bit too high. For starters, blame the schedule. Brent Venables’ first season in the SEC is what nightmares are made of based on who Oklahoma plays and where. There’s a reason Oklahoma’s preseason win total is set at a surprisingly low 7.5 games.
The Sooners only leave Norman once in September, but that’s when the difficult stretch begins if Oklahoma’s able to get past Tennessee in the SEC opener for a potential 4-0 start. What follows is a trip to Auburn, then five games against top-25 teams over the final seven to close it out. Few teams face the late-November gauntlet that Oklahoma must endure with destinations in Missouri and Baton Rouge with a home bout against defending SEC champion Alabama in the middle. This is not a playoff-possible season because of the schedule for the Sooners, so go with the pretender label.
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