Week 13 of the college football season brings us another batch of late November action with at-large and potential automatic-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.
We have a clearer, if also incomplete, picture of where things stand nationally after the release of the third College Football Playoff rankings, and after last week’s notable poll and seeding changes, it’s obvious there’s still plenty to play for across the country in the major conferences.
What do the analytical models suggest for the most important Week 13 action?
Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change
What the model says: Indiana faces by far the biggest test of its perfect season, as the Buckeyes have a 73 percent chance to win the game, according to the latest projections, but will be tested by the Hoosiers’ superb scoring attack and its productive defensive front.
Line: Ohio State -10.5
Prediction: Ohio State by 9
ATS pick: Indiana +10.5
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What the model says: No fears for the Hurricanes, who have a more than 96 percent chance to beat the Demon Deacons, who are 0-2 against AP top 25 ranked teams this season, and move closer to ACC title contention in this home game.
Line: Miami -23.5
Prediction: Miami by 27
ATS pick: Miami -23.5
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What the model says: Florida may be coming off a big upset win against LSU last week, but the index calculates the Rebels have a strong 78 percent chance to win the game thanks to one of college football’s top passing offenses and one of the nation’s most ferocious defensive fronts.
Line: Ole Miss -11.5
Prediction: Ole Miss by 11
ATS pick: Florida +11.5
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What the model says: SMU is still atop the ACC standings and in control of its destiny, even if the selection committee projects Miami will win the league, but the Mustangs have a strong 78 percent chance to win this game and stay perfect in conference play.
Line: SMU -10.5
Prediction: SMU by 11
ATS pick: SMU -10.5
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What the model says: Illinois is looking to avoid falling to .500 in Big Ten play in this road game, but the computers don’t expect that will happen this week, giving Rutgers a narrow 54 percent chance to win the game.
Line: Rutgers -1.5
Prediction: Rutgers by 1
ATS pick: Illinois +1.5
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What the model says: Cupcake Week should go as expected, with the computers projecting the Bulldogs have a greater than 99 percent chance to avoid the upset and stay in playoff contention with the Georgia Tech game coming up next week.
Line: Georgia -42.5
Prediction: Georgia by 47
ATS pick: Georgia -42.5
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What the model says: Likewise for the Volunteers, who should rebound from its loss at Georgia with a dominant victory at home in this late-season matchup, with more than 99 percent likelihood to win outright, and by a gigantic margin.
Line: Tennessee -39.5
Prediction: Tennessee by 43
ATS pick: Tennessee -39.5
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What the model says: Coming into this week as the projected SEC champion and presumptive No. 2 seed in the playoff, the Longhorns have a 95 percent chance to take down the Wildcats, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Line: Texas -20.5
Prediction: Texas by 25
ATS pick: Texas -20.5
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What the model says: The path to the College Football Playoff is there for the Nittany Lions, who have a 75 percent chance to beat the Gophers in this late-season road game.
Line: Penn State -11.5
Prediction: Penn State by 10
ATS pick: Minnesota +11.5
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What the model says: A major Big 12 clash with BYU coming off its first loss and Arizona State looking to get into the league title picture, and it’s the Sun Devils who are favored by the simulations, with a narrow 56 percent chance to take down the Cougars.
Line: Arizona State -3.5
Prediction: Arizona State by 2
ATS pick: BYU +3.5
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What the model says: Another critical Big 12 game that finds the Buffaloes in second place but the Jayhawks playing upset football of late, handing BYU that first loss last week, and it’s Colorado getting 54 percent odds to hold off KU and stay in the conference title race.
Line: Colorado -2.5
Prediction: Colorado by 2
ATS pick: Kansas +2.5
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What the model says: Clemson has a greater than 99 percent chance in this one, but can’t get caught looking ahead to the finale against a resurgent South Carolina.
Line: N/A
Prediction: Clemson by 44
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What the model says: Another cupcake, another expected rout, as the Gamecocks have a more than 99 percent likelihood against the Terriers.
Line: N/A
Prediction: South Carolina by 43
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What the model says: Mississippi State is 0-4 against AP top 25 ranked teams this season thanks in part to the nation’s 119th-ranked scoring defense, giving Missouri a 72 percent chance to win this late SEC game.
Line: Missouri -7.5
Prediction: Missouri by 8
ATS pick: Missouri -7.5
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What the model says: Army is undefeated but hasn’t been tested like it will be in this game, with the selection committee keeping a close eye, but the Irish have a strong 88 percent chance to take down the Black Knights and keep their own playoff hopes alive.
Line: Notre Dame -14.5
Prediction: Notre Dame by 17
ATS pick: Notre Dame -14.5
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What the model says: Ashton Jeanty should find some room to run against Wyoming’s 117th ranked run defense, as the Group of Five favorite Broncos have a 95 percent chance to win this game and stay in the bracket with selection day drawing closer.
Line: Boise State -22.5
Prediction: Boise State by 25
ATS pick: Boise State -22.5
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What the model says: Oklahoma has the defense to stop Jalen Milroe and Company from getting whatever they want early on, but the Sooners’ lack of any real offense gives the Tide an 82 percent chance to come out of Norman with the win.
Line: Alabama -13.5
Prediction: Alabama by 13
ATS pick: Oklahoma +13.5
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What the model says: The computers give the Aggies a 58 percent chance to win this road game with the finale at Texas looming large, but suggest a close game against the upset-minded Tigers who could have a better record if not for some costly turnovers this year.
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
Prediction: Texas A&M by 3
ATS pick: Texas A&M -2.5
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What the model says: Utah’s defense has the bodies to stop the Cyclones from building a big early lead, but the computers are giving Iowa State a 63 percent probability to win the game and take an important step in the crowded Big 12 field.
Line: Iowa State -6.5
Prediction: Iowa State by 5
ATS pick: Utah +6.5
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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