Week 12 of the college football season brings us another delicious menu of November action with at-large and potential automatic-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.
We have a clearer, if also incomplete, picture of where things stand nationally after the release of the second College Football Playoff rankings, and after last week’s notable poll and seeding changes, it’s obvious there’s still plenty to play for across the country in the major conferences.
What do the analytical models suggest for the most important Week 12 action?
Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change
What the model says: Not a surprise perhaps, but the Buckeyes are just about the consensus selection, with a more than 95 percent chance to beat the Wildcats on the road, but they can’t afford to look ahead to next week’s game against undefeated Indiana.
Line: Ohio State -28.5
Prediction: Ohio State by 27
ATS pick: Northwestern +28.5
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What the model says: Texas comes out ahead of the rival Razorbacks in 86 percent of the computer’s simulations against a Hogs defense that is among the SEC’s worst against the pass, while the Longhorns are just about the best at throwing the ball.
Line: Texas -12.5
Prediction: Texas by 16
ATS pick: Texas -12.5
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What the model says: Sitting in second place in the Big 12 and in control of its proverbial destiny, the Buffaloes have a 75 percent chance to take down the Utes at home and keep Coach Prime’s bunch in the playoff picture moving deeper into November.
Line: Colorado -12.5
Prediction: Colorado by 10
ATS pick: Utah +12.5
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What the model says: Clemson is the favorite on the road with 69 percent odds to take down the Panthers, who are on a costly two-game skid after starting 7-0 this year, but we’ll see if Pitt’s superb front seven have any surprises in store for the Tigers’ offense in must-win mode.
Line: Clemson -11.5
Prediction: Clemson by 7
ATS pick: Pittsburgh +12.5
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What the model says: Navy is clinging to any hope it can make the AAC title game, but Tulane is the favorite at 74 percent likelihood to win, which, if it does, would clinch a spot in that matchup with the selection committee keeping a close eye on developments there. Both these teams run the ball very well.
Line: Tulane -7.5
Prediction: Tulane by 9
ATS pick: Tulane -7.5
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What the model says: Cupcake Week comes a little early for the Crimson Tide, which has a more than 99 percent chance to cruise with a date at Oklahoma up next and the Iron Bowl after that sitting inside the top dozen of the College Football Playoff bracket this week.
Line: Alabama -41.5
Prediction: Alabama by 45
ATS pick: Alabama -41.5
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What the model says: A virtual lock for the Nittany Lions with a 97 percent chance to take down the hapless Boilermakers on the road and take the next step towards what should be an 11-1 record if all goes according to plan.
Line: Penn State -29.5
Prediction: Penn State by 31
ATS pick: Penn State -29.5
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What the model says: Virginia just knocked off Pittsburgh on the road, but the index foresees no such luck against the Irish, who have a 96 percent chance to stay in the win column, and by a nice healthy margin, too, which should appease the selection committee again this week.
Line: Notre Dame -22.5
Prediction: Notre Dame by 28
ATS pick: Notre Dame -22.5
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What the model says: Sitting all alone atop the ACC standings, the Mustangs are in a position to stay there as the Eagles undergo a change at quarterback this week, with an 87 percent likelihood to win outright and stay perfect in conference play.
Line: SMU -17.5
Prediction: SMU by 17
ATS pick: Boston College +17.5
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What the model says: The path to a 9-win season is there for the Cardinals, who are fourth in the ACC this week and own that win over Clemson, with a 91 percent chance to take down Stanford.
Line: Louisville -20.5
Prediction: Louisville by 21
ATS pick: Louisville -20.5
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What the model says: Two SEC rivals who got trounced last week have little to play for on paper, but LSU is still mathematically alive in the postseason, even if it needs plenty of outside help. Brian Kelly’s team has a 58 percent chance to take down the Gators on the road.
Line: LSU -3.5
Prediction: LSU by 3
ATS pick: Florida +3.5
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What the model says: Much has been said about the Gamecocks’ dominant front seven and their newfound rushing offense over the last few games, and they have a 70 percent chance to take down Mizzou, which is still kind of in the playoff conversation, albeit at a whisper.
Line: South Carolina -13.5
Prediction: South Carolina by 7
ATS pick: Missouri +13.5
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What the model says: The committee’s favorite out of the Group of Five is getting 83 percent odds to stay the course this week on the road.
Line: Boise State -13.5
Prediction: Boise State by 14
ATS pick: Boise State -13.5
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What the model says: Kansas State is a big favorite on the index, with a 75 percent chance to win this battle of two of the four teams at 4-2 in Big 12 play and desperate to break out of that tie.
Line: Kansas State -7.5
Prediction: Kansas State by 10
ATS pick: Kansas State -7.5
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What the model says: Another big road trip for the Ducks, which have a strong 76 percent chance to beat the Badgers in this cross-country matchup and stay undefeated and atop the Big Ten standings, where they sit in a dead heat with surprise contender Indiana.
Line: Oregon -13.5
Prediction: Oregon by 10
ATS pick: Wisconsin +13.5
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What the model says: The game of the week finds the Bulldogs with their backs against the wall against a Vols team with a question at quarterback after Nico Iamaleava’s injury, but Georgia is still getting a solid 62 percent probability to win the game outright and avoid disaster.
Line: Georgia -9.5
Prediction: Georgia by 4
ATS pick: Tennessee +9.5
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What the model says: No real threat of an upset here for the Aggies, who come into their late season cupcake game with a greater than 99 percent likelihood to win.
Line: Texas A&M -38.5
Prediction: Texas A&M by 43
ATS pick: Texas A&M -38.5
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What the model says: John Mateer has this potent Cougars offense sitting at 8-1 and in the College Football Playoff rankings, and with an 82 percent chance to win on the road and keep this successful season going towards a decent bowl game.
Line: Washington State -10.5
Prediction: Washington State by 14
ATS pick: Washington State -10.5
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What the model says: Don’t overlook the Jayhawks, who are starting to build some momentum late in the season, and will test the undefeated Cougars, who have a 61 percent chance to stay that way, showing the computers have some real respect for KU in this one.
Line: BYU -2.5
Prediction: BYU by 4
ATS pick: BYU -2.5
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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