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It’s been a long and eventful college football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has already delivered plenty of action and excitement, and the quarterfinal round has finally arrived following a 10-day break. Following a couple of packed bowl season slates over the weekend, the action continues with a plethora of games on Tuesday, December 31, including the Fiesta Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff, plus the Texas Bowl and ReliaQuest Bowl, among others. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
It’s time to dive into Tuesday’s slate of bowl games with my college football best bets column. I’m on a 17-6 best bets run  and bowl season has been kind to me in the past, so let’s keep that momentum going this year! Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for all of the games on New Year’s Eve.
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.
One of the best games in the history of college football came on New Year’s Day in 2007 between Oklahoma and Boise State, which produced one of the most memorable upsets in sports history, announcing the Broncos as a force to be reckoned with and a program on the rise on a national stage. Fast forward nearly 18 years and we’re getting another Fiesta Bowl game involving Boise State as a significant underdog against one of the bigger brands in the sport. This sort of narrative doesn’t apply to my handicap on this game, but it is a position that this Boise State program has been in before, and I wouldn’t expect the Broncos to be intimidated by a team that has better talent and depth across nearly all of its position groups. While I do think Penn State emerges with a victory on Tuesday, there are paths for both teams to cover the number in this contest.
While I don’t have a strong opinion on the point spread, my favorite bet involving this game is on the over. For starters, this is going to be played on a fast track and we just saw the Penn State offense move the ball with sustained success a few weeks ago in a similar indoor game against Oregon, a team with a much better defense than what the Nittany Lions will see in this contest. One of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though Boise State’s defense line is defense by far the strength of its defense, it’s hard to see the Broncos shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. Boise State is also outside the top 100 in missed tackles, so that could be an issue for the Broncos as well.
On the other side, if Boise State is able to keep this one close, that likely means that Dirk Koetter’s offense has thrown the kitchen sink at Tom Allen’s defense, and Jeanty has been able to break a few explosive runs to go along with some timely Madsen throws. And even if the Broncos find themselves trailing by multiple touchdowns in this game, there’s not going to be any quit in this offense, which means that there is always potential for some garbage time points. Let’s back the Over in Phoenix.
Read our full Penn State vs Boise State prediction for their College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Baylor -4.
This game looked a lot better on paper when the matchup was announced, but I still think there’s an opportunity to back a Baylor team that has been a cash cow against the spread over the past couple of months. In an era of bowl opt-outs and large swaths of the roster hitting the transfer portal, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has indicated that his best players – including quarterback Sawyer Robertson – will play in this game. That alone signifies that this is a program that cares about this game far more than the opponent, as LSU will be without a litany of players, including both of its starting offensive tackles, multiple starting wide receivers, its starting tight end and a number of depth pieces in the secondary.
It appears LSU will start 3 freshmen along the offensive line, which doesn’t bode well against a Baylor defense that is sitting at 7th in rushing success rate allowed and 32nd in EPA per play on defense. The Tigers already struggled mightily to run the ball when they had a healthy offensive line earlier this season, so the LSU ground game could be a major issue for this offense on Tuesday. If the Tigers find themselves behind the chains often, it’ll be extremely difficult for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to bail his team out on 3rd downs with consistent success.
As for the Baylor offense, Robertson (30 touchdowns to 7 interceptions) was playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation over the final few months of this season. The Bears’ offense is a top-20 unit through the air and on 3rd downs, which should translate into this game against a depleted LSU secondary. It just so happens that this LSU defense can be attacked, as seen against the likes of Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M earlier this season, who all exploited a unit that is 83rd in passing success rate allowed and 92nd in Early Downs EPA. The Tigers are also outside the top 70 in rushing success rate allowed and third and fourth down success rate, so there should be plenty of avenues for Baylor to score in this game.
Finally, it’s also worth wondering if Brian Kelly and the Tigers’ coaching staff is as focused on this game as they should be, or have they already turned the page to finalizing any moves in the transfer portal and working on next season’s roster. Yes, LSU has more top-end talent than its opponent, much of that talent won’t be suiting up for the Tigers in this one. Couple that with a Baylor team that should be motivated to finish its strong season on a high note, and that gives us a recipe for the Bears to win and cover the spread on New Year’s Eve.
Find out our Baylor vs LSU prediction for the Texas Bowl
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Alabama -14.
How do you prepare for a bowl game after winning your Super Bowl? That’s the question at hand for Michigan after the Wolverines went into Columbus and pulled off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the “The Game” over Ohio State as nearly 3-touchdown underdogs. It’s a bit difficult to devote all of your attention to the ReliaQuest Bowl following what was easily the biggest win of the season for Sherrone Moore and company. There’s also the matter of the opt-outs for Michigan in this game, including a trio of elite defensive players (Mason Graham, Will Johnson and Josiah Stewart).
Additionally, Michigan’s three most explosive players on offense (Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings) will all be out in this game, along with multiple players on the offensive line. That spells trouble against an Alabama defense that should be motivated to prove that it belonged in the College Football Playoff. Look for the Crimson Tide to create plenty of havoc against a depleted Michigan offense in this one. On the other side, the Alabama offense should see all of its top players suit up in this game, including quarterback Jalen Milroe, who should see success against a Michigan defense that will be a shell of its regular-season self. Kalen DeBoer’s group should build an early lead and coast to a comfortable victory in a game where they should have a clear motivation edge.
Get our full Alabama vs Michigan prediction for the ReliaQuest Bowl
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