Preseason bowl projections in April with the second transfer portal window opening are likely futile, but it’s never too early to forecast how college football’s 2024 postseason could look. As the playoff expands to 12 teams, several first-timers could appear and add to the intrigue.
Bowl tie-ins, unless there are contractual obligations, could change significantly based on how ESPN sees fit. For instance, with the Pac-12 no more, there are still six games with affiliations through the 2025 season and they are the Holiday, Alamo, Vegas, Los Angeles, Sun and Independence. Expect those tie-ins to remain despite the league dissolving with teams leaving for the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12, respectively. What’s left of the conference — in other words, Washington State and Oregon State — will remain eligible for Pac-12 bowls if each hit the six-win plateau.
Bowl season is going to look brand-new in 2024 with playoff expansion and every matchup outside of those featured games are an educated at this point.
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That said, projections this time of year are always fun, so let’s get to it:
Gasparilla Bowl
Projected matchup: SMU vs. Tulane
A rematch of last season’s AAC Championship Game? This time around, SMU represents the ACC. With Preston Stone returning at quarterback for the Mustangs, this offense is confident Year 1 in a Power conference will provide immediate results. Tulane is one of a handful of Group of Five teams capable of getting to the playoff under new coach Jon Sumrall.
Boca Raton Bowl
Projected matchup: UCF vs. Marshall
Birmingham Bowl
Projected matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
68 Ventures Bowl
Projected matchup: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
Potato Bowl
Projected matchup: Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Armed Forces Bowl
Projected matchup: Air Force vs. Iowa State
Camellia Bowl
Projected matchup: Louisiana vs. UAB
Arizona Bowl
Projected matchup: Western Michigan vs. Utah State
New Orleans Bowl
Projected matchup: Appalachian State vs. USF
USF and quarterback Byrum Brown could have a special season, but first, the Bulls have to deal with Alabama and Miami in the non-conference. If they split those matchups and run the table in the Group of Five’s most competitive league, USF should rank inside the playoff top 25 at season’s end and have a shot at getting in the expanded bracket.
Los Angeles Bowl
Projected matchup: Washington State vs. UNLV
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Projected matchup: ECU vs. Troy
Independence Bowl
Projected matchup: TCU vs. Cal
Frisco Bowl
Projected matchup: Rutgers vs. ODU
New Mexico Bowl
Projected matchup: Toledo vs. San Jose State
Cure Bowl
Projected matchup: JMU vs. Rice
Bahamas Bowl
Projected matchup: New Mexico State vs. Northern Illinois
Liberty Bowl
Projected matchup: Auburn vs. Oklahoma State
The last time Auburn played in the Liberty Bowl was in 1984. And if it happens this time around, that would mean a six or seven-win finish for Hugh Freeze in Year 2. After last season’s bowl failures against Maryland, the Tigers look to end the campaign on the right foot. Oklahoma State is trying to get back to the Big 12 title game with many of the same playmakers returning, including Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon.
First Responder Bowl
Projected matchup: Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State
Quick Lane Bowl
Projected matchup: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan
Hawai’i Bowl
Projected matchup: Colorado State vs. WKU
Holiday Bowl
Projected matchup: Clemson vs. Washington
One of the preseason favorites in the ACC, Dabo Swinney’s team still has a long way to go offensively to be considered a serious playoff threat. Equally potent in the conference are defending champion Florida State, along with Miami, NC State and others. Under first-year coach Jedd Fisch, Washington’s first season in the Big Ten could be difficult.
Mayo Bowl
Projected matchup: Duke vs. Wisconsin
Military Bowl
Projected matchup: Boise State vs. Georgia Tech
Las Vegas Bowl
Projected matchup: Kentucky vs. Texas Tech
Alamo Bowl
Projected matchup: West Virginia vs. USC
Need an under-the-radar potential contender in the Big 12? West Virginia fits the bill. This has a chance to be the best team the Mountaineers have had in several seasons with a ton of star power returning on both sides of the football under Neal Brown. At USC, Lincoln Riley needs momentum. Last season didn’t go as planned and now, in the Big Ten, the schedule gets even more difficult for the Trojans.
Sun Bowl
Projected matchup: Louisville vs. Oregon State
Pinstripe Bowl
Projected matchup: Northwestern vs. UNC
Fenway Bowl
Projected matchup: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Projected matchup: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech
The Jayhawks lobbied for a trip to Orlando last season, but the invite went to Kansas State, so it only makes sense that 2024 might be the makeup bid of sorts as long as Kansas is one of the top-half finishers in the Big 12. With Jalon Daniels returning at quarterback, expect the Jayhawks to be in the league championship mix.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Projected matchup: Indiana vs. Arizona
Texas Bowl
Projected matchup: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Bowl
Projected matchup: Alabama vs. Penn State
This would be a somewhat of a stunner for Citrus Bowl organizers to get two bluebloods like this land in their lap, but it’s possible if there’s a slight slip from the pedestals in the SEC and Big Ten, respectively. Both the Crimson Tide and Nittany Lions are certainly talented enough to get to the playoff with returning starting quarterbacks and bodies in the trenches intending to wreak havoc on the competition. The respective schedules are quite daunting, however.
ReliaQuest Bowl
Projected matchup: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Gator Bowl
Projected matchup: NC State vs. Missouri
Music City Bowl
Projected matchup: Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Projected matchup: No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Texas
Facing one of the easiest schedules in the Group of Five ranks and given Kaidon Salter’s return at quarterback, Liberty is the early pick for the bid here. That first-round matchup with the Longhorns would be a doozy, however.
Projected matchup: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Oregon
Is this Mario Cristobal’s breakthrough opportunity with the Hurricanes? We’re expecting Miami to be active in the transfer portal this month and add to an already impressive roster.
Projected matchup: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Ole Miss
The SEC will be the league with the most playoff bids, but which one of that group will be the last team? Going with LSU, early. The Rebels take the field in September with the most-talented roster in program history. It’s playoff or bust in 2024 for Lane Kiffin.
Projected matchup: No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Notre Dame
The Irish will benefit in the playoff era thanks to being independent. Win 10 games and Notre Dame is in.
Projected matchup: No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Two programs that are familiar with one another, Ohio State’s win at Notre Dame last season brought out something unique in coach Ryan Day post-game when he made things personal with former Fighting Irish coaching legend Lou Holtz. Ohio State wasn’t physical enough to be mentioned in the ranks of the elites, per Holtz, and then the Buckeyes delivered. Much has been made about Notre Dame’s stance in the expanded playoff and how 10 wins a season should be enough for the independent to grab one of the available at-large bids.
Projected matchup: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Utah
Texas might be power-ranked ahead of projected Big 12 champion Utah, but it’s the Utes who get the first-round bye after winning a league championship. By the way, projecting a Big 12 champion in April might be college football’s toughest offseason task. That’s a wide open league with as many as six different squads with the potential to win it.
Projected matchup: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
The portal bowl in New Orleans? The Ducks and Seminoles would love to be in this position during the first year of the expanded playoff. That would mean Lanning’s team would already have one playoff victory under their belts and FSU would be a two-time defending champion of the ACC. Mike Norvell completely revamped this roster for the second-straight offseason through the portal and on paper, has another two-deep capable of getting through the regular season unscathed.
Projected matchup: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin mentioned Georgia’s noticeable talent differential after last season’s blowout loss to the Bulldogs in Athens, so what did the Ole Miss coach do? He went out and gobbled up players in the transfer portal that he intends to utilize against some of the SEC’s best this fall. The Rebels won’t get another crack at Georgia during the regular season, but it could happen in Atlanta should both teams reach the SEC title game or in the playoff.
Projected matchup: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Florida State
The Buckeyes get back to the site of last season’s loss to Missouri with a chance to reach the national championship finale with a win. Ohio State matching up with projected ACC champion FSU would be a ratings bonanza and would offer up another opportunity for Day to right his wrongs against elite competition. The winner of this one goes to the national championship game in late January with a chance to start the playoff expansion era with a bang.
Projected matchup: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas
Face it —there will be SEC rematches in the expanded playoff era. That’s just how it is when as many as four or five teams from the same league find a way to the 12-team format. Kirby Smart wants changes to bowl season and he’s not going to be pleased with facing the Longhorns again after beating them in Atlanta for the SEC Championship a few weeks prior. It’s hard to beat a team multiple times and this could be the third and final bout between these two heavyweights next season. Get your popcorn ready.
Projected matchup: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
These two teams met two years ago in Atlanta during a terrific playoff semifinal game that catapulted former Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud toward the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. He gashed Georgia’s secondary that evening, but it was the Bulldogs and former standout Stetson Bennett, who prevailed and moved on to the title game. This time around, the winner gets the hardware. These are arguably college football’s two best teams as we speak in April and will be the preferred picks from most media to meet in the finale.
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